AI verdict

AI pick Levadiakos win probability ~42% best odds 2.21

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Levadiakos. Full breakdown below.

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Greece. Cup. Qualification
Greece. Cup. Qualification
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data Line Form H2H Prediction
19.08.2026 18:00 UTC
Not started

Greece. Cup. Qualification

Levadiakos - Asteras Tripolis

Football
L
Levadiakos
- : -
Not started
A
Asteras Tripolis

Levadiakos meet Asteras Tripolis on August 19, 2026 in the Greece. Cup. Qualification.

Read on for detailed stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PropickAI neural-network verdict.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Levadiakos42%

1 · Levadiakos42.1%
X · draw30.0%
2 · Asteras Tripolis27.9%

Model estimate: win Levadiakos 42.1%, draw 30.0%, win Asteras Tripolis 27.9%. Model favourite — Levadiakos.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown
AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Levadiakos (odds2.20) Score 1:0 confidence 50%
  • Model backs Levadiakos: probability 50% vs 45% on the line (odds 2.20)
  • edge over the line +5 pp — value pick
  • Expected score 1:0.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Levadiakos - Asteras Tripolis August 19, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Levadiakos. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.21 / X 3.10 / 2 3.50

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 9.7% 5 books · best price +2.3%
1 42.0%
X 30.8%
2 27.2%

Odds source: consensus of 5 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Cup
Best price across 11 books
1 2.35 Unibet
X 3.15 Dafabet
2 3.45 Betano

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Levadiakos
W-D-L 6-1-3 Scored 1.70 Conceded 0.86 xG 1.55 xGA 0.95 Corners 6.0
Asteras Tripolis
W-D-L 4-2-4 Scored 1.64 Conceded 0.95 xG 1.58 xGA 0.95 Corners 4.0

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)
Levadiakos
Rating 1893
Asteras Tripolis
Rating 1737

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

%

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result
Levadiakos
42%
2.21
Draw
31%
3.10
Asteras Tripolis
27%
3.50
Handicap
Levadiakos (0)
60%
1.56
Asteras Tripolis (0)
40%
2.40
Total
Over 2.5
39%
2.40
Under 2.5
61%
1.52
Both teams to score
Yes
46%
2.09
No
54%
1.69

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Levadiakos 1 : 1 Asteras Tripolis
12.17
X2.96
23.30

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Match center
Start 19.08.2026 18:00 UTC
Market 1 42.7% @ 2.21 / X 30.4% @ 3.10 / 2 26.9% @ 3.50
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Levadiakos 42%
💹 Market Levadiakos 42%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
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Match center

Levadiakos - Asteras Tripolis

Market 3 model / bookmakers
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Levadiakos 42.0% 42.1% market and model agree
Draw 30.5% 30.0% draw risk
Asteras Tripolis 27.5% 27.9%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 42.1% / 30.0% / 27.9% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,500 / 1,500 Levadiakos / Asteras
RD 350 / 350 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 800-2,200 / 800-2,200 strength interval

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.34 market consensus · no value · model 27.9%
X 2.98 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.17 market consensus · no value · model 42.1%
Double chance
12 1.49 market consensus · weak value +4.3% · model 70.0%
1X 1.21 market consensus · no value · model 72.1%
X2 1.45 market consensus · no value · model 57.9%
Handicap
2 0 2.33 market consensus · line only
1 0 1.54 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.38 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.52 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.68 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.98 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Kambi BetMGM Kambi Unibet Leon
no 1.68 59.5% 1.68 59.5% 1.69 59.2%
yes 1.93 51.8% 1.93 51.8% 2.09 47.9%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Kambi BetMGM Kambi Unibet
12 1.32 75.8% 1.34 74.6% 1.64 61.0% 1.64 61.0%
1x 1.25 80.0% 1.27 78.7% 1.16 86.2% 1.16 86.2%
x2 1.57 63.7% 1.64 61.0% 1.30 76.9% 1.30 76.9%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
2.94 34.0%
X 1.97 50.8%
4.30 23.3%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 0.5 1.57 63.7%
Over 1 2.30 43.5%
Under 0.5 2.25 44.4%
Under 1 1.55 64.5%

Frequently asked questions

When does Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis start?

August 19, 2026.