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Greece. Cup. Qualification
Greece. Cup. Qualification
11.08.2026 15:00 UTC Match prediction
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form –H2H ✓Prediction
11.08.2026 15:00 UTC
Finished

Greece. Cup. Qualification

Trikala - Larisa

Football
Trikala
Trikala
0 : 4
Finished
Larisa
Larisa

Trikala take on Larisa on August 11, 2026 in the Greece. Cup. Qualification.

Recent form (W-D-L): Trikala 1-1-3, Larisa 0-3-2. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 14% to win. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PrognozAI AI pick.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

2 Larisa — 64%

Pure model vs market (2 · Larisa): model 33% · market 67% Δ −34 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Trikala14.5%
market12%
X · draw21.1%
market21%
2 · Larisa ✓ Pick64.4%
market67%

Model estimate: win Trikala 14.5%, draw 21.1%, win Larisa 64.4%. Model favourite — Larisa.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Trikala (odds7.90) Score 2:1 confidence 52% ✗ outcome missed
  • • Model backs Trikala: probability 52% vs 13% on the line (odds 7.90)
  • • edge over the line +39 pp — value pick
  • • Expected score 2:1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Trikala - Larisa August 11, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Larisa.

Line favourite Fonbet: Larisa. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 15.00 / X 7.40 / 2 1.03
  • Glicko: Trikala 14.5% / X 21.1% / Larisa 64.4%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 8.9% 4 books · best price +2.5%
1 12.3%
X 21.0%
2 ✓ Pick 66.7%

Odds source: consensus of 4 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Cup
League table
Trikala
#20 ptsGP 10-0-10:4
Larisa
#13 ptsGP 11-0-04:0
Best price across 11 books
1 8.50 BetVictor
X 4.75 Bet365
2 1.45 Dafabet

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Trikala
W-D-L 6-1-3 Scored 1.33 Conceded 1.36 xG 0.98 xGA 1.14
Larisa
W-D-L 2-3-5 Scored 1.06 Conceded 1.63 xG 1.16 xGA 1.25 Corners 6.0

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

%

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result
Trikala
13%
15.00
Draw
21%
7.40
Larisa
66%
1.42
Total
Over 2.5
50%
1.90
Under 2.5
50%
4.90

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Trikala 1 : 1 Larisa
16.83
X4.15
21.40

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

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Match center
Start 11.08.2026 15:00 UTC
Market 1 5.7% @ 15.00 / X 11.5% @ 7.40 / 2 82.8% @ 1.03
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Larisa 64%
💹 Market Larisa 67%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
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Match center

Trikala - Larisa

Trikala: win Trikala: draw Larisa win: Obschiy Total goals Over : Obschiy Total goals Under : Individualnyy Total goals Trikala Over : Individualnyy Total goals Trikala Under : Individualnyy Total goals Larisa Over : Individualnyy Total goals Larisa Under : Pobed…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Line 1 source Stavka.tv
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line Overview
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 0:4
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table away - 64.4% fact: away hit / ROI 42.0% / Brier 0.192 / LogLoss 0.440
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table away - 64.4% fact: away hit / ROI 42.0% / Brier 0.192 / LogLoss 0.440
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Trikala 12.6% 14.5%
Draw 21.0% 21.1% draw risk
Larisa 66.4% 64.4% market and model agree
1X2: 3 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 14.5% / 21.1% / 64.4% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,500 / 1,500 Trikala / Larissa
RD 350 / 350 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 800-2,200 / 800-2,200 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.03 Fonbet · no value · model 64.4%
X 7.40 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 7.37 market consensus · no value · model 14.5%
Double chance
12 1.06 Fonbet · no value · model 78.9%
1X 9.00 Fonbet · no value · model 35.6%
X2 1.02 Fonbet · no value · model 85.5%
Handicap
2 -1 1.66 market consensus · line only
2 0 1.01 Fonbet · line only
1 +1 2.15 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.13 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 4.90 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.03 Fonbet · line only
Yes 8.50 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 1.03 97.1% 1.59 62.9%
yes 8.50 11.8% 2.26 44.3%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
12 1.17 85.5% 1.18 84.8% 1.06 94.3%
1x 2.67 37.5% 2.90 34.5% 9.00 11.1%
x2 1.06 94.3% 1.05 95.2% 1.02 98.0%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
8.70 11.5%
X 2.41 41.5%
1.81 55.3%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1 1.80 55.6%
Under 1 1.90 52.6%
Match center
Trikala Team form Larisa
10 Matches 10
5 Goals 8
0.5 Per match 0.8
1 Wins 2
4 Draws 6
5 Losses 2

Form & head-to-head

TrikalaLLDDDLDDWW
LarissaWLWDDDLDLL
H2H 0-0-1, avg 4.0 gls
2026-08-11 · Trikala 0:4 Larisa
Source: ruscore

Odds · 5 bookmakers

Best price: 1 9 (Pari) · X 4.5 (Winline) · 2 1.39 (Liga Stavok)
Bookmaker1X2
Pari 9 4.05 1.38
Winline 7.6 4.5 1.38
Fonbet 9 4.05 1.38
Betcity 8.5 3.9 1.38
Liga Stavok 7 4.2 1.39
Source: ruscore · line comparison

Match stats

0 Cards total 2
0 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
0 Second yellows 0
5 Substitutions 5
Source: ruscore
Trikala
L D L W L
17.06.23, 09:00
Veriya 3:0 Iraklis Larisa
10.06.23, 09:00
Iraklis Larisa 0:0 Makedonikos
03.06.23, 09:00
Panatinaikos B 3:1 Iraklis Larisa
28.05.23, 08:00
Iraklis Larisa 2:0 Panserraykos
19.05.23, 08:00
Iraklis 1908 4:1 Iraklis Larisa
1 Wins
1 Draws
3 Losses
2.4 Scored
0.4 Conceded
4 Points
Larisa
L D D D L
08.04, 08:00
Trikala 0:1 Lamiya
05.04, 08:00
Trikala 0:0 Aris Filates
01.04, 08:00
Elassona 0:0 Trikala
28.03, 08:00
Tilikratis Lefkas 1:1 Trikala
22.03, 08:00
Trikala 0:1 Asteras Stavros
0 Wins
3 Draws
2 Losses
0.2 Scored
0.6 Conceded
3 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyTrikala - Larisa

Trikala
0 matches total
Larisa
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Match center
Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.
Team 1 Trikala
Data 0 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket
Team 2 Larisa
Matches in history 1
Highest-scoring match 2:0
Cup Gretsii 1 / 1 / 0 / 0 / 2 / 0

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Trikala vs Larisa?

By the PropickAI model, Larisa is favoured — about 64% win probability.

What does PropickAI predict for Trikala vs Larisa?

The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Larisa. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.

When does Trikala vs Larisa start?

August 11, 2026.