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Iceland. Premier League
Iceland. Premier League
27.07.2026 17:15 UTC Match prediction
27.07.2026 17:15 UTC
Finished

Iceland. Premier League

KA Akureyri - Thor Akureyri

Football
KA Akureyri
KA Akureyri
0 : 0
Finished
Thor Akureyri
Thor Akureyri
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 KA Akureyri — 54%

Pure model vs market (1 · KA Akureyri): model 48% · market 11% Δ +37 pp model estimates above the market

1 · KA Akureyri53.7%
X · draw22.2%
2 · Thor Akureyri24.1%

Model estimate: win KA Akureyri 53.7%, draw 22.2%, win Thor Akureyri 24.1%. Model favourite — KA Akureyri.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1KA Akureyri (odds1.65) Score 1:0 confidence 50% ✗ outcome missed
  • • Model backs Akyureyri: probability 50% vs 61% on the line (odds 1.65)
  • • no edge over the line (-11 pp) — informational only
  • • Expected score 1:0.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction KA Akureyri - Thor Akureyri July 27, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like draw.

Line favourite Fonbet: draw. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 8.50 / X 1.14 / 2 12.50
  • Glicko: KA Akureyri 53.7% / X 22.2% / Thor Akureyri 24.1%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 7.5%
1 10.9%
X 81.6%
2 7.4%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

KA Akureyri 4 : 1 Thor Akureyri
11.83
X3.94
23.65

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Participant opinions
307 predictions Choose an outcome
1 81% 113
X 13% 19
2 5% 7
Double chance X2 2.02 (11) - 1X 1.23 (2) - 12 1.22 (1)
Total TB 3.5 1.91 (18) - TM 2.5 2.85 (5) - TB 3 1.50 (5)
handicap1 handicap1:-1_5 2.65 (9) - handicap1:-1 2.20 (9) - handicap2:0 2.85 (5)
total_t1_under total_t1_over:2_5 2.40 (5) - total_t2_over:1_5 2.21 (4) - total_t1_over:1_5 1.46 (4)
Match center
Start 27.07.2026 17:15 UTC
🥊 Humans vs Machines
👥 Community KA Akureyri 81%
📐 Math model KA Akureyri 54%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

KA Akureyri - Thor Akureyri

Form 3/4 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Line 1 source Stavka.tv
Player opinions Stavka.tv 139 combined layer without duplicates
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
yes Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 0:0
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 53.7% fact: draw missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.951 / LogLoss 1.504
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 53.7% fact: draw missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.951 / LogLoss 1.504
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
KA Akureyri 54.1% 53.7% market and model agree
Draw 22.3% 22.2% draw risk
Thor Akureyri 23.6% 24.1%
1X2: 3 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 53.7% / 22.2% / 24.1% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,521 / 1,469 KA Akureyri / Thor Akureyri
RD 232 / 232 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,057-1,986 / 1,006-1,932 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.90 market consensus · no value · model 24.1%
X 1.14 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 8.50 Fonbet · weak value +356.6% · model 53.7%
Double chance
12 5.00 Fonbet · weak value +288.9% · model 77.8%
1X 1.03 Fonbet · no value · model 75.9%
X2 1.06 Fonbet · no value · model 46.3%
Handicap
2 -1 1.01 Fonbet · line only
2 +1 1.64 market consensus · line only
2 0 2.65 Fonbet · line only
1 -1 2.13 market consensus · line only
Total
Under 2.5 1.01 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.01 Fonbet · line only
Yes 1.38 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 1.01 99.0% 2.80 35.7%
yes 11.50 8.7% 1.38 72.5%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
12 1.18 84.8% 1.20 83.3% 5.00 20.0%
1x 1.21 82.6% 1.22 82.0% 1.03 97.1%
x2 2.00 50.0% 2.03 49.3% 1.06 94.3%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
2.17 46.1%
X 2.50 40.0%
4.00 25.0%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1.5 1.94 51.6%
Under 1.5 1.77 56.5%
Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 1-1-0, avg 0.5 gls
2026-07-27 · Akyureyri 0:0 Tor Akyureyri
2026-05-02 · Akyureyri 1:0 Tor Akyureyri
Source: ruscore

Odds · 4 bookmakers

Best price: 1 1.73 (Winline) · X 4.3 (Betcity) · 2 4.2 (Betcity)
Bookmaker1X2
Pari 1.72 4.2 4.05
Winline 1.73 3.95 3.7
Fonbet 1.72 4.2 4.05
Betcity 1.68 4.3 4.2
Source: ruscore · line comparison
KA Akureyri
D W L
19.07 12:00 UTC Iceland: Luchshiy Division Standings
KA Akureyri 2:2 VestmannaeyyarVestmannaeyyar
12.07 16:00 UTC Iceland: Luchshiy Division Standings
KA Akureyri 3:2 AkranesAkranes
02.07 17:15 UTC Iceland: Luchshiy Division Standings
KA Akureyri 2:3 Vikingur ReykyavikVikingur Reykyavik
1 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
2.3 Scored
2.3 Conceded
4 Points
Thor Akureyri
W L D L
18.07 14:00 UTC Iceland: Luchshiy Division Standings
Thor Akureyri 2:1 Vikingur ReykyavikVikingur Reykyavik
12.07 16:00 UTC Iceland: Luchshiy Division Standings
Thor Akureyri 1:6 FramFram
02.07 15:00 UTC Iceland: Luchshiy Division Standings
Thor Akureyri 3:3 KR ReykyavikKR Reykyavik
14.06 14:30 UTC Iceland: Luchshiy Division Standings
Thor Akureyri 1:4 VestmannaeyyarVestmannaeyyar
1 Wins
1 Draws
2 Losses
1.8 Scored
3.5 Conceded
4 Points