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Ireland. Premier League
Ireland. Premier League
01.08.2026 16:00 UTC Match prediction
01.08.2026 16:00 UTC
Finished

Ireland. Premier League

St Patrick's Athl. - Derry City

Football
St Patrick's Athl.
St Patrick's Athl.
0 : 1
Finished
Derry City
Derry City

St Patrick's Athl. take on Derry City on August 1, 2026 in the Ireland. Premier League.

Recent form (W-D-L): St Patrick's Athl. 1-1-1, Derry City 1-0-0. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 54% to win. Below: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PrognozAI AI breakdown.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 St Patrick's Athl. — 54%

Pure model vs market (1 · St Patrick's Athl.): model 38% · market 55% Δ −17 pp model estimates below the market

1 · St Patrick's Athl.53.6%
X · draw25.6%
2 · Derry City20.9%

Model estimate: win St Patrick's Athl. 53.6%, draw 25.6%, win Derry City 20.9%. Model favourite — St Patrick's Athl..

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Derry City (odds4.67) Score 0:1 confidence 50% ✓ outcome correct · exact score
  • • liniya na pik P2 2.35→1.04 (ukorotilas — dengi na pik)
  • • Model backs Derri Siti: probability 50% vs 21% on the line (odds 4.67)
  • • edge over the line +29 pp — value pick
  • • Expected score 0:1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction St Patrick's Athl. - Derry City August 1, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like St Patrick's Athl..

Line favourite market consensus: St Patrick's Athl.. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.73 / X 3.70 / 2 4.80
  • Glicko: St Patrick's Athl. 53.6% / X 25.6% / Derry City 20.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.7%
1 54.7%
X 25.6%
2 19.7%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 1 2.95 ↑ 32.00
1X2 X 3.15 ↑ 5.30
1X2 2 2.35 ↓ 1.04

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Premier Division
League table
St Patrick's Athl.
#243 ptsGP 2512-7-640:21
Derry City
#629 ptsGP 256-11-832:31
Best price across 13 books
1 1.81 Unibet
X 3.68 Pinnacle
2 4.87 Pinnacle

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)
St Patrick's Athl.
W-D-L 4-3-3 Scored 1.30 Conceded 0.70 xG 1.83 xGA 0.91 Corners 7.1
Derry City
W-D-L 2-4-4 Scored 1.30 Conceded 1.30 xG 1.38 xGA 1.13 Corners 5.3

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)
St Patrick's Athl.
Rating 1612 xG 1.41 Win 49%
Derry City
Rating 1542 xG 0.88 Win 23%

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

St Patrick's Athl. 4 : 1 Derry City
11.85
X3.48
23.61

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Match center
Start 01.08.2026 16:00 UTC
Market 1 54.7% @ 1.73 / X 25.6% @ 3.70 / 2 19.7% @ 4.80
Match center

St Patrick's Athl. - Derry City

Form 3/1 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line Movement
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 0:1
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 53.6% fact: away missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.978 / LogLoss 1.567
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 53.6% fact: away missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.978 / LogLoss 1.567
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
St Patrick's Athl. 54.5% 53.6% market and model agree
Draw 25.7% 25.6% draw risk
Derry City 19.7% 20.9%
xG - 1.41 : 0.88
1X2: 3 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 53.6% / 25.6% / 20.9% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,443 / 1,556 Saint Patrick's Athletic / Derry City
RD 267 / 254 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 910-1,977 / 1,048-2,063 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 4.71 market consensus · no value · model 20.9%
X 3.60 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.71 market consensus · no value · model 53.6%
Double chance
12 1.25 market consensus · no value · model 74.4%
1X 1.16 market consensus · no value · model 79.1%
X2 2.04 market consensus · no value · model 46.4%
Handicap
2 +0.5 2.04 market consensus · line only
2 +1 1.54 market consensus · line only
2 0 3.50 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.70 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.10 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.67 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.73 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.99 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 1.73 57.8%
yes 1.99 50.3%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
12 1.24 80.7% 1.25 80.0%
1x 1.14 87.7% 1.17 85.5%
x2 2.05 48.8% 2.03 49.3%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
2.33 42.9%
X 2.07 48.3%
5.30 18.9%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 0.5 1.40 71.4%
Under 0.5 2.59 38.6%
Match center
St Patrick's Athl.
W D L
24.07 17:00 UTC Ireland: Premer-Division Standings
St Patrick's Athl. 2:1 DandolkDandolk
10.07 17:00 UTC Ireland: Premer-Division Standings
St Patrick's Athl. 1:1 Uoterford YunaytedUoterford Yunayted
26.06 17:00 UTC Ireland: Premer-Division Standings
St Patrick's Athl. 0:2 BogemiansBogemians
1 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.3 Conceded
4 Points
Derry City
W
27.06 16:45 UTC Ireland: Premer-Division Standings
Derry City 2:0 Droeda YunaytedDroeda Yunayted
1 Wins
0 Draws
0 Losses
2.0 Scored
0.0 Conceded
3 Points