AI verdict
Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Inter. Full breakdown below.
Picks locked before kickoff results verified after public accuracy log →
31.08.2026 18:45 UTC
Match prediction
Italy: Serie A
Cagliari face Inter in football, in Italy: Serie A, on 31 August 2026. Our Glicko-2 rating model leans to Inter: roughly 85% to win. Sportsbook prices (3 books) put that result at roughly 88%. The model puts the chance of a draw at 11%.
Latest form: Cagliari 1 won, 0 drawn and 0 lost; Inter 1 won, 0 drawn and 0 lost. On the Glicko scale the two are essentially level.
Our model and the market consensus broadly agree on this match. Model confidence in the favourite is high. That is a 3-point gap to the market. On a hit-rate basis the steadier pick tilts to a covered market on Inter - double chance looks calmer than a clean win. Key markers: the model's 85% for Inter. Read on for team stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PropickAI AI prediction. This is a probability read from our model plus the market line, not a guaranteed outcome.
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)
2 Inter — 85%
Model estimate: win Cagliari 3.9%, draw 11.2%, win Inter 84.9%. Model favourite — Inter.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Double chance — Inter or draw 1.01
How often this pick wins on our settled history — not a profit forecast.
Math-model prediction
Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Inter.
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)Odds source: Leon line. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
For reference
Market-implied probability from the frozen pre-kickoff consensus line — reference, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
Market consensus
Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.
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We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Match markets| Outcome | Kambi BetMGM | Kambi Unibet | Leon |
|---|---|---|---|
| no | 1.09 91.7% | 1.19 84.0% | 1.79 55.9% |
| yes | 5.80 17.2% | 4.00 25.0% | 1.91 52.4% |
| Outcome | Kambi BetMGM | Kambi Unibet |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.05 95.2% | 1.03 97.1% |
| 1x | 6.75 14.8% | 8.50 11.8% |
| x2 | 1.01 99.0% | 1.01 99.0% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 6.90 14.5% | |
| X | 2.47 40.5% |
| 1.88 53.2% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1 | 1.58 63.3% |
| Under 1 | 2.23 44.8% |
Cagliari
Aretstso
Full head-to-head history: Cagliari - Inter
The Cagliari - Inter breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
By the PropickAI model, Inter is favoured — about 85% win probability.
The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Inter. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.
Live odds for Cagliari vs Inter from multiple bookmakers are listed on this page and refresh as the market moves.
August 31, 2026.
