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AI verdict
AI pick Vis Pesaro
win probability ~49%
best odds 3.38
Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Vis Pesaro. Full breakdown below.
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30.08.2026 19:00 UTC
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30.08.2026 19:00 UTC
Finished
Italy: Serie C - Group B
Vis Pesaro vs Perugia — Football prediction
2
:
2
Finished
Vis Pezaro go head-to-head with Perugia in football, in Italy: Serie C - Group B, on 30 August 2026. PropickAI's Glicko-2 model makes Vis Pezaro the favourite, with a win probability of about 49%. Sportsbook prices (1 book) put that result at roughly 27%. The model puts the chance of a draw at 20%.
Detailed recent-game data is thin here, so the model leans mainly on the team ratings. On the Glicko scale it is 1500 for Vis Pezaro against 1555 for Perugia - a gap of 55 points. The game is part of Italy: Serie C - Group B.
Our model is notably more confident in the favourite than the market. Model confidence in the favourite is low. That is a 22-point gap to the market. The match is close, and the model flags no clear safer edge. Key markers: an edge of 55 Glicko rating points, the model's 49% for Vis Pezaro. Below on this page: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PropickAI AI breakdown. This is a probability read from our model plus the market line, not a guaranteed outcome.
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Vis Pesaro — 49%
Model estimate: win Vis Pesaro 49.2%, draw 20.0%, win Perugia 30.8%. Model favourite — Vis Pesaro.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown
AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
1Vis Pesaro (odds3.34)
Score 1:0
confidence 50%
✗ outcome missed
- • Model backs Vis Pezaro: probability 50% vs 30% on the line (odds 3.34)
- • edge over the line +20 pp — value pick
- • Expected score 1:0.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Vis Pesaro - Perugia August 30, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Perugia.
Line favourite market consensus: Perugia. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.38 / X 3.18 / 2 2.13
- Glicko: Vis Pesaro 49.2% / X 20.0% / Perugia 30.8%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 8.0%
1
27.4%
X
29.1%
2
43.5%
Odds source: Leon line. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
For reference
Model O/U (market-implied)
Total 2.50
1 books
Over 2.50
39.8%
Under 2.50
60.2%
Market-implied probability from the frozen pre-kickoff consensus line — reference, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
SStats data
Statistics and model
Serie C - Girone BLeague table
Vis Pesaro
Perugia
Form over 10 matches (SStats)Vis Pesaro
W-D-L 4-1-5
Scored 1.16
Conceded 1.14
xG 1.05
xGA 1.32
Perugia
W-D-L 4-5-1
Scored 1.29
Conceded 0.97
xG 1.23
xGA 1.09
Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
Model form (Glicko)
Vis Pesaro
Rating 1466
Perugia
Rating 1515
Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.
Model prediction • nb-bet.com
Score prediction
Vis Pesaro
1
:
1
Perugia
13.98
X3.36
21.81
Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source
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Match center
Start
30.08.2026 19:00 UTC
Market
1 27.4% @ 3.38 / X 29.1% @ 3.18 / 2 43.5% @ 2.13
🥊 Humans vs Machines
👥 Community
Draw 80%
📐 Math model
Vis Pesaro 49%
💹 Market
Perugia 43%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
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Match center
Vis Pesaro - Perugia
Vis Pesaro: win Vis Pesaro: draw Perugia win: Obschiy Total goals Over : Obschiy Total goals Under : Individualnyy Total goals Vis Pesaro Over : Individualnyy Total goals Vis Pesaro Under : Individualnyy Total goals Perugia Over : Individualnyy Total goals Perugia…
Lineups
3/3
probable starting lineup
Form
5/5
recent games
H2H
3
head-to-head matches
Market
3
model / bookmakers
Post-match / SStats
Score
2:2
Events
0
Statistics
0
Lineups
0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2
We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.
Option
Signal
Prediction / actual
Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite
Audit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form, table
home - 49.2% fact: draw
missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.977 / LogLoss 1.609
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite
Audit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form, table
home - 49.2% fact: draw
missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.977 / LogLoss 1.609
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Vis Pesaro
27.4%
49.2%
Glicko contrarian
Draw
29.1%
20.0%
draw risk
Perugia
43.5%
30.8%
market favourite
1X2: 1 Bookies
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
49.2% / 20.0% / 30.8%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,500 / 1,555
Vis Pezaro / Perugia
RD
350 / 220
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD
800-2,200 / 1,115-1,996
strength interval
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
2.13
market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 30.8%
X
3.18
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
3.38
market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 49.2%
Handicap
2 -0.5
2.11
market consensus · line only
1 +0.5
1.65
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
2.33
market consensus · line only
Under 2.5
1.54
market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No
1.69
market consensus · line only
Yes
2.04
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 1.69 59.2% |
| yes | 2.04 49.0% |
First Half Winner
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 4.16 24.0% | |
| X | 1.93 51.8% |
| 2.92 34.3% |
Goals Over/Under First Half
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.48 67.6% |
| Under 0.5 | 2.36 42.4% |
Handicap
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 1.65 60.6% | |
| 1.18 84.8% | |
| 2.11 47.4% | |
| 4.30 23.3% |
Match center
16
Alessandro Guarnone
5
Denis Tonuchchi
9
Franchesko Nikastro
28
David Rikkardi
8
Rikkardo Ladinetti
10
Luidzhi Kanotto
Vis Pesaro
Probable starting lineup
Perugia
Probable starting lineup
28
DR
David Rikkardi
David Rikkardi
8
RL
Rikkardo Ladinetti
Rikkardo Ladinetti
10
LK
Luidzhi Kanotto
Luidzhi Kanotto
Vis Pesaro
No home-team absences found in the prematch data.
Perugia
No away-team absences found in the prematch data.
SStats
Market - Glicko - Form - H2H
Match center
Vis Pesaro
Team form
Perugia
10
Matches
10
10
Goals
11
1.0
Per match
1.1
2
Wins
2
2
Draws
6
6
Losses
2
Form & head-to-head
H2H 2-3-2, avg 2.0 gls
2026-08-30 · Vis Pezaro 2:2 Perudzha
2026-03-29 · Vis Pezaro 0:1 Perudzha
2025-11-24 · Vis Pezaro 1:2 Perudzha
2025-02-07 · Vis Pezaro 1:0 Perudzha
2024-09-30 · Vis Pezaro 0:0 Perudzha
Source: ruscore
Odds · 5 bookmakers
Best price: 1 3.4 (Betcity) · X 3.25 (Pari) · 2 2.13 (Winline)
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pari | 3.2 | 3.25 | 2.12 |
| Winline | 3.05 | 3.25 | 2.13 |
| Fonbet | 3.2 | 3.25 | 2.12 |
| Betcity | 3.4 | 3.2 | 2.1 |
| Liga Stavok | 3.2 | 3.25 | 2.1 |
Source: ruscore · line comparison
Match stats
8
Vsego udarov
16
3
Shots on target
7
3
Shots off target
7
10
Udary ot vorot
3
2
Blokirovannye udary
2
11
Shtrafnye
20
4
Corners
6
2
Offsides
0
29
Auty
28
5
Saves
1
20
Fouls
11
3
Cards total
1
3
Yellow cards
1
0
Red cards
0
0
Second yellows
0
1
Travmy
0
4
Substitutions
5
Source: ruscore
Vis Pesaro
L
W
D
L
L
Peskara
2:0
Vis Pezaro
Perudzha
1:2
Vis Pezaro
Modena
0:0
Vis Pezaro
A.K. Chezena
3:0
Vis Pezaro
Vis Pezaro
1:2
Benevento
1
Wins
1
Draws
3
Losses
1.4
Scored
0.8
Conceded
4
Points
Perugia
W
L
D
D
L
Perudzha
1:0
Ostiya Mare
Perudzha
1:2
Vis Pezaro
Perudzha
1:1
Grosseto
Forli
1:1
Perudzha
Perudzha
0:1
Kampobasso
1
Wins
2
Draws
2
Losses
0.8
Scored
1.0
Conceded
5
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head history: Vis Pesaro - Perugia
Vis Pesaro
3
matches total
Vis Pesaro: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Perugia: 3 (100%)
Biggest win
Pesaro 1:2 (2026-08-15)
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
3 goals (1:2, 2026-08-15)
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Overall statistics
Match history
Perugia 1:2 Pesaro
Pesaro 0:1 Perugia
Perugia 2:1 Pesaro
Match center
Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.
Team 1
Vis Pesaro
Team 2
Perugia
Matches in history
9
Biggest draw
2:2
Highest-scoring match
2:2
Cup Italy - Seriya C
1 / 1 / 0 / 0 / 2 / 1
Seriya C
8 / 2 / 2 / 4 / 6 / 8
Unlock the full match prediction
The Vis Pesaro - Perugia breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Vis Pesaro vs Perugia?
By the PropickAI model, Perugia is favoured — about 49% win probability.
What does PropickAI predict for Vis Pesaro vs Perugia?
The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Perugia. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.
What are the bookmaker odds for Vis Pesaro vs Perugia?
Live odds for Vis Pesaro vs Perugia from multiple bookmakers are listed on this page and refresh as the market moves.
When does Vis Pesaro vs Perugia start?
August 30, 2026.