Match center
Start
28.07.2026 11:00 UTC
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28.07.2026 11:00 UTC
Finished
Kazakhstan: First League Standings
Tobyl 2 - Shakhtar Karaganda
1
:
0
Finished
🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)
2 Shakhtar Karaganda — 65%
Model estimate: win Tobyl 2 19.3%, draw 15.4%, win Shakhtar Karaganda 65.2%. Model favourite — Shakhtar Karaganda.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Tobyl 2 - Shakhtar Karaganda July 28, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Tobyl 2.
Line favourite Fonbet: Tobyl 2. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.04 / X 3.60 / 2 4.60
- Glicko: Tobyl 2 19.3% / X 15.4% / Shakhtar Karaganda 65.2%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 45.7%
1
66.0%
X
19.1%
2 ✓ Pick
14.9%
Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
For reference
Line movement
How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 1
1.60
↓ 1.04
1X2 X
3.65
↓ 3.60
1X2 2
4.60
→ 4.60
↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
Model prediction • nb-bet.com
Score prediction
Tobyl 2
4
:
2
Shakhtar Karaganda
11.08
X8.75
212.00
Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source
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Match center
Tobyl 2 - Shakhtar Karaganda
Form
5/5
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
3
model / bookmakers
SportsMole
preview
Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore
context
Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt
squad
Present in data
Market
Form
Match
Participants
Line
Movement
More needed
H2H
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad
championat, soccer365, Injuries
Overview
championat, soccer365
Table
championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
1:0
Events
0
Statistics
0
Lineups
0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2
We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.
Option
Signal
Prediction / actual
Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite
Audit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form, table
away - 65.2% fact: home
missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 1.101 / LogLoss 1.644
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite
Audit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form, table
away - 65.2% fact: home
missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 1.101 / LogLoss 1.644
Glicko-2: public filter
Audit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form, table
away - 65.2% fact: home
missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 1.101 / LogLoss 1.644
Glicko-2: precision filter
Audit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form, table
away - 65.2% fact: home
missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 1.101 / LogLoss 1.644
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Tobyl 2
66.0%
19.3%
market favourite
Draw
19.1%
15.4%
draw risk
Shakhtar Karaganda
14.9%
65.2%
Glicko contrarian
1X2: 1 Bookies
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
19.3% / 15.4% / 65.2%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,217 / 1,925
Tobyl 2 / Shakhtar Karaganda
RD
208 / 175
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD
802-1,633 / 1,575-2,275
strength interval
HFA: 62
HFA mu: 0.357
MoV: on
N: N=1
P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
4.60
Fonbet · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 65.2%
X
3.60
Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
1.04
Fonbet · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 19.3%
Double chance
12
1.25
Fonbet · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 84.6%
1X
1.16
Fonbet · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 34.8%
X2
10.00
Fonbet · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 80.7%
Total
Over 2.5
2.70
Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5
1.40
Fonbet · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
bookmaker line and markets
Double chance
| Outcome | Fonbet |
|---|---|
| 12 | 1.25 80.0% |
| 1x | 1.16 86.2% |
| x2 | 10.00 10.0% |
Handicap
| Outcome | Fonbet |
|---|---|
| 5.80 17.2% | |
| 1.10 90.9% |
Total
| Outcome | Fonbet |
|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 10.50 9.5% |
| Over 2.5 | 2.70 37.0% |
| Over 3.5 | 2.50 40.0% |
| Under 1.5 | 1.02 98.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 1.40 71.4% |
| Under 3.5 | 1.47 68.0% |
Outcome (1X2)
| Outcome | Fonbet |
|---|---|
| 1.04 96.2% | |
| X | 3.60 27.8% |
| 4.60 21.7% |
Match center
Tobyl 2
L
L
L
D
L
Tobyl 2
2:4
Turan
Turan
Tobyl 2
2:3
Akademiya Ontustik
Akademiya Ontustik
Tobyl 2
0:1
Jaiyq
Jaiyq
Tobyl 2
5:5
Aktobe 2
Aktobe 2
Tobyl 2
0:7
Kayrat Almaty 2
Kayrat Almaty 2
0
Wins
1
Draws
4
Losses
1.8
Scored
4.0
Conceded
1
Points
Shakhtar Karaganda
W
W
W
W
W
Shakhtar Karaganda
4:1
Arys
Arys
Shakhtar Karaganda
2:0
FK BATYR
FK BATYR
Shakhtar Karaganda
1:0
Turan
Turan
Shakhtar Karaganda
2:1
Akademiya Ontustik
Akademiya Ontustik
Shakhtar Karaganda
2:0
Khan Tengri
Khan Tengri
5
Wins
0
Draws
0
Losses
2.2
Scored
0.4
Conceded
15
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyTobyl 2 - Shakhtar Karaganda
Tobyl 2
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
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- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form