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Kazakhstan: OLIMPBET - Cup Kazakhstana
Kazakhstan: OLIMPBET - Cup Kazakhstana
29.07.2026 13:00 UTC Match prediction
29.07.2026 13:00 UTC
Finished

Kazakhstan: OLIMPBET - Cup Kazakhstana

Kaisar - Zhenys

Football
Kaisar
Kaisar
5 : 4
Finished
Zhenys
Zhenys
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Kaisar — 41%

Pure model vs market (1 · Kaisar): model 41% · market 74% Δ −33 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Kaisar41.3%
X · draw32.4%
2 · Zhenys26.3%

Model estimate: win Kaisar 41.3%, draw 32.4%, win Zhenys 26.3%. Model favourite — Kaisar.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Kaisar (odds2.40) Score 1:0 confidence 50% ✓ outcome correct
  • • Model backs Kaysar: probability 50% vs 42% on the line (odds 2.40)
  • • edge over the line +8 pp — value pick
  • • Expected score 1:0.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Kaisar - Zhenys July 29, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Kaisar.

Line favourite Fonbet: Kaisar. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.02 / X 14.00 / 2 3.60
  • Glicko: Kaisar 41.3% / X 32.4% / Zhenys 26.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 33.0%
1 73.7%
X 5.4%
2 20.9%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Kaisar 1 : 1 Zhenys
12.44
X2.78
23.02

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Participant opinions
25 predictions Choose an outcome
1 33% 3
X 44% 4
2 22% 2
Double chance 1X 1.33 (2)
Both teams to score BTTS yes 2.02 (6)
Total TB 3 3.86 (2) - TB 2.5 2.47 (1) - TM 4.5 (1)
handicap1 handicap2:0 2.03 (1)
Match center
Start 29.07.2026 13:00 UTC
🥊 Humans vs Machines
👥 Community Draw 44%
📐 Math model Kaisar 41%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Kaisar - Zhenys

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Line 1 source Stavka.tv
Player opinions Stavka.tv 9 combined layer without duplicates
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
yes Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 5:4
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 41.3% fact: home hit / ROI 154.0% / Brier 0.519 / LogLoss 0.885
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 41.3% fact: home hit / ROI 154.0% / Brier 0.519 / LogLoss 0.885
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Kaisar 41.3% 41.3% market and model agree
Draw 33.0% 32.4% draw risk
Zhenys 25.7% 26.3%
1X2: 3 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 41.3% / 32.4% / 26.3% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,432 / 1,491 Kaisar / Zhenys
RD 169 / 168 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,093-1,770 / 1,156-1,827 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.36 market consensus · no value · model 26.3%
X 2.80 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.02 Fonbet · no value · model 41.3%
Double chance
12 1.01 Fonbet · no value · model 67.6%
1X 1.01 Fonbet · no value · model 73.7%
X2 1.57 market consensus · no value · model 58.7%
Handicap
2 -1 1.85 Fonbet · line only
2 0 6.90 Fonbet · line only
1 -1 1.85 Fonbet · line only
1 0 1.07 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.32 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 3.10 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.95 Fonbet · line only
Yes 1.35 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 2.95 33.9% 1.70 58.8%
yes 1.35 74.1% 2.04 49.0%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
12 1.36 73.5% 1.38 72.5% 1.01 99.0%
1x 1.23 81.3% 1.24 80.7% 1.01 99.0%
x2 1.55 64.5% 1.58 63.3% 15.00 6.7%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
3.26 30.7%
X 1.81 55.3%
3.97 25.2%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 0.5 1.57 63.7%
Over 1 2.32 43.1%
Under 0.5 2.25 44.4%
Under 1 1.54 64.9%
Match center

Form & head-to-head

KaisarDDLDWDWLDW
ZhenysLDWLDDLWLL
H2H 1-3-1, avg 1.6 gls
2026-03-08 · Kaysar Kyzylorda 1:1 Zhenis
2025-10-26 · Kaysar Kyzylorda 2:2 Zhenis
2025-03-02 · Kaysar Kyzylorda 0:0 Zhenis
2024-09-14 · Kaysar Kyzylorda 0:1 Zhenis
2024-05-18 · Kaysar Kyzylorda 1:0 Zhenis
Source: ruscore

Odds · 5 bookmakers

Best price: 1 2.43 (Winline) · X 3.04 (Winline) · 2 3.13 (Winline)
Bookmaker1X2
Pari 2.35 2.95 3.1
Winline 2.43 3.04 3.13
Fonbet 2.35 2.95 3.1
Betcity 2.4 3 3
Liga Stavok 2.39 3 2.95
Source: ruscore · line comparison
Kaisar
D D L D W
26.07 12:00 UTC+0 Kazakhstan: Premier League Standings
Kaisar 1:1 ElimayElimay
18.07 13:00 UTC+0 Kazakhstan: Premier League Standings
Kaisar 1:1 Kaspiy AktauKaspiy Aktau
12.07 11:00 UTC+0 Kazakhstan: Premier League Standings
Kaisar 0:1 UlytauUlytau
05.07 13:00 UTC+0 Kazakhstan: Premier League Standings
Kaisar 0:0 Irtysh PavlodarIrtysh Pavlodar
14.06 13:00 UTC+0 Kazakhstan: Premier League Standings
Kaisar 2:1 Kaspiy AktauKaspiy Aktau
1 Wins
3 Draws
1 Losses
0.8 Scored
0.8 Conceded
6 Points
Zhenys
L D W L L
26.07 13:00 UTC+0 Kazakhstan: Premier League Standings
Zhenys 2:3 Kaspiy AktauKaspiy Aktau
18.07 11:00 UTC+0 Kazakhstan: Premier League Standings
Zhenys 1:1 UlytauUlytau
11.07 10:00 UTC+0 Kazakhstan: Premier League Standings
Zhenys 1:0 Irtysh PavlodarIrtysh Pavlodar
03.07 12:00 UTC+0 Kazakhstan: Premier League Standings
Zhenys 0:1 AstanaAstana
14.06 10:00 UTC+0 Kazakhstan: Premier League Standings
Zhenys 1:2 UlytauUlytau
1 Wins
1 Draws
3 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.4 Conceded
4 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyKaisar - Zhenys

Kaisar
0 matches total
Zhenys
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history