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Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg

28.07.2026 21:15 UTC Match prediction

28.07.2026 21:15 UTC

Finished

Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg

Deportes Quindio - Deportes Tolima

Football

Stadium Estadio Centenario

Deportes Quindio

2 : 1

Finished

Deportes Tolima

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Deportes Tolima — 42%

Pure model vs market (2 · Deportes Tolima): model 47% · market 30% Δ +17 pp model estimates above the market

1 · Deportes Quindio25.0%

X · draw33.0%

2 · Deportes Tolima42.0%

Model estimate: win Deportes Quindio 25.0%, draw 33.0%, win Deportes Tolima 42.0%. Model favourite — Deportes Tolima.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Deportes Tolima (odds2.18) Score 0:1 confidence 50% ✗ outcome missed

• Model backs Tolima: probability 50% vs 46% on the line (odds 2.18)
• edge over the line +4 pp — value pick
• Expected score 0:1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Deportes Quindio - Deportes Tolima July 28, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like draw.

Line favourite Fonbet: draw. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 3.10 / X 1.45 / 2 2.30
Glicko: Deportes Quindio 25.0% / X 33.0% / Deportes Tolima 42.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 44.7%

1 22.3%

X 47.7%

2 30.0%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 1 3.80 ↓ 3.10

1X2 X 2.90 ↓ 1.45

1X2 2 2.15 ↑ 18.00

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Copa Colombia

Best price across 13 books

1 4.10 10Bet

X 3.10 Unibet

2 2.18 Dafabet

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)

Deportes Quindio

W-D-L 2-3-5 Scored 1.34 Conceded 1.91 xG 1.03 xGA 1.49

Deportes Tolima

W-D-L 3-2-5 Scored 1.05 Conceded 1.36 xG 1.49 xGA 0.81

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome

Agreement 1/1

Confidence 62.0%

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Deportes Quindio 1 : 1 Deportes Tolima

13.98

X2.69

22.11

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

AI overview

AI predictions

AI analysis:4/7 ready · Still preparing:DeepSeek, ChatGPT, Kimi

Google AI updated28.07.2026 22:21 UTC

1 21%

X 36%

2 43% ✓ favourite

Score1:1 Total goals: Under 2.5 BTTS:Yes Bet:X2 and Under 3.5

Per AI data Form:LLWWL / WWWDW H2H: 1-2

Claude updated28.07.2026 22:33 UTC

1 25%

X 35%

2 40% ✓ favourite

Score0:1 Total goals: Under 2.5 BTTS:No Bet:X2 (Tolima ne proigraet)

Qwen updated28.07.2026 22:30 UTC

1 78% ✓ favourite

X 15%

2 7%

Score2:0 Total goals: Under 2.5 BTTS:No Bet:Win DAC Dunayska Streda

Per AI data H2H: 0-0

GLM 5.2 updated28.07.2026 22:48 UTC

1 28%

X 35%

2 37% ✓ favourite

Score1:1 Total goals: Over 2.5 BTTS:Yes Bet:X2

Per AI data H2H: 2-1

AI consensus:2

AI	1	X	2	Score	Total goals	BTTS	Bet
Google AI	21%	36%	43%	1:1	Under 2.5	Yes	X2 and Under 3.5
Claude	25%	35%	40%	0:1	Under 2.5	No	X2 (Tolima ne proigraet)
Qwen	78%	15%	7%	2:0	Under 2.5	No	Win DAC Dunayska Streda
GLM 5.2	28%	35%	37%	1:1	Over 2.5	Yes	X2

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Match center

Stadium Estadio Centenario

Start 28.07.2026 21:15 UTC

🥊 Humans vs Machines

🤖 7 AI models Deportes Quindio 38%

📐 Math model Deportes Tolima 42%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Deportes Quindio - Deportes Tolima

Quindio: Win 3.80 Quindio: Draw 2.90 Deportes Tolima Win: 2.10 Obschiy total golov bolshe 1.5: 1.57 Obschiy total golov menshe 1.5: 2.25 Individualnyy total golov Quindio bolshe 0.5: 1.73 Individualnyy total golov Quindio menshe 0.5: 2.00 Individualnyy total golov Deportes…

Form 1/1 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 3 model / bookmakers

SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.

Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.

Transfermarkt squad

Present in data

Market Form Match Participants H2H Line Movement Overview

More needed

Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore

Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries

Table championat, Flashscore

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 2:1

Events 0

Statistics 0

Lineups 0

PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating

Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table away - 42.0% fact: home missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.848 / LogLoss 1.386

Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table away - 42.0% fact: home missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.848 / LogLoss 1.386

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Deportes Quindio 24.6% 25.0%

Draw 33.7% 33.0% draw risk

Deportes Tolima 41.7% 42.0% market and model agree

1X2: 4 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 25.0% / 33.0% / 42.0% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,400 / 1,660 Deportes Quindio / Deportes Tolima

RD 291 / 250 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 818-1,983 / 1,160-2,159 strength interval

HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 2.16 market consensus · no value · model 42.0%

X 1.45 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 3.10 Fonbet · no value · model 25.0%

Double chance

12 2.65 Fonbet · weak value +77.6% · model 67.0%

1X 1.03 Fonbet · no value · model 58.0%

X2 1.35 Fonbet · no value · model 75.0%

Handicap

2 -1 1.01 Fonbet · line only

2 +1 4.05 Fonbet · line only

2 0 5.40 Fonbet · line only

1 +1 1.20 Fonbet · line only

Total

Over 2.5 2.60 Fonbet · line only

Under 2.5 1.43 Fonbet · line only

Both teams to score

No 1.75 Fonbet · line only

Yes 2.03 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome	Fonbet	Leon
no	1.75 57.1%	1.56 64.1%
yes	2.03 49.3%	2.29 43.7%

Double chance

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity	Fonbet
12	1.39 71.9%	1.41 70.9%	2.65 37.7%
1x	1.65 60.6%	1.55 64.5%	1.03 97.1%
x2	1.20 83.3%	1.24 80.7%	1.35 74.1%

First Half Winner

Outcome	Leon
	5.10 19.6%
X	1.73 57.8%
	2.98 33.6%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome	Leon
Over 0.5	1.65 60.6%
Over 1	2.27 44.1%
Under 0.5	2.10 47.6%
Under 1	1.57 63.7%

Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 1-0-1, avg 3.0 gls

2026-07-28 · Kindio 2:1 Deportes Tolima

2026-07-21 · Kindio 1:2 Deportes Tolima

Source: ruscore

Odds · 2 bookmakers

Best price: 1 3 (Winline) · X 3.4 (Winline) · 2 2.16 (Liga Stavok)

Bookmaker	1	X	2
Winline	3	3.4	2.15
Liga Stavok	3	3.4	2.16

Source: ruscore · line comparison

Deportes Quindio

21.07 21:00 UTC Colombia: Cup Kolumbii - Pervyy etap - Playoff

Deportes Quindio 1:2 Tolima

0 Wins

0 Draws

1 Losses

1.0 Scored

2.0 Conceded

0 Points

Deportes Tolima

21.07 21:00 UTC Colombia: Cup Kolumbii - Pervyy etap - Playoff

Deportes Tolima 2:1 Kindio

1 Wins

0 Draws

0 Losses

2.0 Scored

1.0 Conceded

3 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyDeportes Quindio - Deportes Tolima

Deportes Quindio

1 matches total

Deportes Tolima

Deportes Quindio: 0 (0%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Deportes Tolima: 1 (100%)

Biggest win Tolima 1:2 (21.07 21:00 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 3 goals (1:2, 21.07 21:00 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0

0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

21.07 21:00 UTC Colombia: Cup Kolumbii - Pervyy etap - Playoff

Kindio

1:2

Tolima