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Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg
Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg
28.07.2026 23:00 UTC Match prediction
28.07.2026 23:00 UTC
Finished

Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg

Real Cartagena - America de Cali

Football
Real Cartagena
Real Cartagena
2 : 3
Finished
America de Cali
America de Cali
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 America de Cali — 53%

1 · Real Cartagena28.0%
X · draw18.7%
2 · America de Cali53.3%

Model estimate: win Real Cartagena 28.0%, draw 18.7%, win America de Cali 53.3%. Model favourite — America de Cali.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2America de Cali (odds1.48) Score 0:1 Under 3.5 (odds1.72) ✗ Handicap H1 +1.5 (odds1.60) ✓ confidence 50% ✓ outcome correct
  • • Model backs Amerika De Kali: probability 50% vs 68% on the line (odds 1.48)
  • • no edge over the line (-18 pp) — informational only
  • • Expected score 0:1
  • • Total: Under 3.5: model expects a total of ~1 goals
  • • at line 3.5 (odds 1.72)
  • • Handicap F1 +1.5: score forecast 0:1 (diff -1) covers the line (odds 1.60).

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Real Cartagena - America de Cali July 28, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like America de Cali.

Line favourite market consensus: America de Cali. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.30 / X 3.10 / 2 2.20
  • Glicko: Real Cartagena 28.0% / X 18.7% / America de Cali 53.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 8.0%
1 28.1%
X 29.9%
2 42.1%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 1 5.40 ↑ 33.00
1X2 X 4.40 ↑ 9.50
1X2 2 1.48 ↓ 1.02

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Real Cartagena 2 : 1 America de Cali
11.77
X3.78
24.22

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Match center
Start 28.07.2026 23:00 UTC
Match center

Real Cartagena - America de Cali

Form 1/1 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Line Movement
More needed
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 2:3
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table away - 53.3% fact: away hit / ROI 2.0% / Brier 0.331 / LogLoss 0.629
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table away - 53.3% fact: away hit / ROI 2.0% / Brier 0.331 / LogLoss 0.629
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Real Cartagena 28.1% 28.0%
Draw 29.9% 18.7% draw risk
America de Cali 42.1% 53.3% market and model agree
1X2: 1 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 28.0% / 18.7% / 53.3% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,512 / 1,748 Real Cartagena / America de Cali
RD 216 / 242 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,081-1,944 / 1,263-2,232 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.20 market consensus · value +17.3% · model 53.3%
X 3.10 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 3.30 market consensus · no value · model 28.0%
Double chance
12 1.32 market consensus · value +7.3% · model 81.3%
1X 1.60 market consensus · no value · model 46.7%
X2 1.29 market consensus · no value · model 72.0%
Handicap
2 0 1.54 market consensus · line only
1 0 2.30 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.87 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.83 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Double chance

Outcome Betcity
12 1.32 75.8%
1x 1.60 62.5%
x2 1.29 77.5%

Handicap

Outcome Betcity
2.30 43.5%
1.54 64.9%

Total

Outcome Betcity
Over 2.5 1.87 53.5%
Under 2.5 1.83 54.6%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Betcity
3.30 30.3%
X 3.10 32.3%
2.20 45.5%
Match center
Real Cartagena
L
21.07 22:30 UTC Colombia: Cup Kolumbii - Pervyy etap - Playoff
Real Cartagena 1:2 Amerika De KaliAmerika De Kali
0 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
1.0 Scored
2.0 Conceded
0 Points
America de Cali
W
21.07 22:30 UTC Colombia: Cup Kolumbii - Pervyy etap - Playoff
America de Cali 2:1 Real KartakhenaReal Kartakhena
1 Wins
0 Draws
0 Losses
2.0 Scored
1.0 Conceded
3 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyReal Cartagena - America de Cali

Real Cartagena
1 matches total
America de Cali
Real Cartagena: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
America de Cali: 1 (100%)
Biggest win Amerika De Kali 1:2 (21.07 22:30 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 3 goals (1:2, 21.07 22:30 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0
0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

21.07 22:30 UTC Colombia: Cup Kolumbii - Pervyy etap - Playoff
Real Kartakhena
1:2
Amerika De Kali