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La Liga
La Liga Spain
03.05.2025 12:00 UTC Match prediction
03.05.2025 12:00 UTC
Finished

La Liga

Spain

Alaves - Atletico Madrid

Spain Football
Alaves
Alaves
0 : 0
Finished
Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Alaves - Atletico Madrid May 3, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Atletico Madrid.

Line favourite market consensus: Atletico Madrid. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.83 / X 3.19 / 2 2.21
  • 1X2 market: Alaves 25.4% / X 30.5% / Atletico Madrid 44.1%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 61.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 2.7%
1 25.4%
X 30.5%
2 44.1%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 3.1%
Over 2.5 38.2%
Under 2.5 61.8%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 03.05.2025 12:00 UTC
Match center

Alaves - Atletico Madrid

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.21 market consensus · line only
X 3.19 market consensus · line only
1 3.83 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.30 market consensus · line only
12 1.40 market consensus · line only
1X 1.74 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.54 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.57 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome SStats Consensus
3.83 26.1%
X 3.19 31.4%
2.21 45.3%

Double chance

Outcome SStats Consensus
draw_away 1.30 76.9%
home_away 1.40 71.4%
home_draw 1.74 57.5%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome SStats Consensus
Over 2.5 2.54 39.4%
Under 2.5 1.57 63.7%

Home/Away

Outcome SStats Consensus
2.66 37.6%
1.52 65.8%
Match center
Alaves
W D L W L
23.04 19:30 UTC La Liga
Alaves 1:0 Real SociedadReal Sociedad
20.04 16:30 UTC La Liga
Alaves 1:1 SevillaSevilla
13.04 14:15 UTC La Liga
Alaves 0:1 Real MadridReal Madrid
05.04 12:00 UTC La Liga
Alaves 1:0 GironaGirona
26.10 14:15 UTC La Liga
Alaves 0:1 Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano
2 Wins
1 Draws
2 Losses
0.6 Scored
0.6 Conceded
7 Points
Atletico Madrid
W L W W L
24.04 19:30 UTC La Liga
Atletico Madrid 3:0 Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano
19.04 19:00 UTC La Liga
Atletico Madrid 0:1 Las PalmasLas Palmas
14.04 19:00 UTC La Liga
Atletico Madrid 4:2 Valladolid
06.04 14:15 UTC La Liga
Atletico Madrid 2:1 SevillaSevilla
27.10 16:30 UTC La Liga
Atletico Madrid 0:1 Real BetisReal Betis
3 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
1.8 Scored
1.0 Conceded
9 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyAlaves - Atletico Madrid

Alaves
0 matches total
Atletico Madrid
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history