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La Liga Spain

30.08.2025 15:00 UTC Match prediction

30.08.2025 15:00 UTC

Finished

La Liga

Alaves - Atletico Madrid

Spain Football

Alaves

1 : 1

Finished

Atletico Madrid

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Alaves - Atletico Madrid August 30, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Atletico Madrid.

Line favourite market consensus: Atletico Madrid. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 5.08 / X 3.48 / 2 1.77
1X2 market: Alaves 18.8% / X 27.4% / Atletico Madrid 53.8%
Total 2.5: over probability 58.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.9%

1 18.8%

X 27.4%

2 53.8%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.6%

Over 2.5 41.0%

Under 2.5 59.0%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Start 30.08.2025 15:00 UTC

Match center

Alaves - Atletico Madrid

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 1.77 market consensus · line only

X 3.49 market consensus · line only

1 5.10 market consensus · line only

Double chance

X2 1.18 market consensus · line only

12 1.30 market consensus · line only

1X 2.06 market consensus · line only

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.19 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 1.77 market consensus · line only

2 +1 2.48 market consensus · line only

1 -0.5 4.70 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 2.33 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 1.62 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 1.69 market consensus · line only

Yes 2.11 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome	SStats Consensus
	5.44 18.4%
X	3.55 28.2%
	1.77 56.5%

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
	4.85 20.6%	5.10 19.6%	5.16 19.4%	4.80 20.8%	5.50 18.2%	5.20 19.2%
X	3.45 29.0%	3.55 28.2%	3.70 27.0%	3.30 30.3%	3.50 28.6%	3.40 29.4%
	1.78 56.2%	1.78 56.2%	1.81 55.3%	1.75 57.1%	1.73 57.8%	1.85 54.1%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	Marathonbet	Pinnacle
no	1.67 59.9%	1.69 59.2%	1.68 59.5%	1.67 59.9%	1.67 59.9%	1.72 58.1%	1.73 57.8%	1.66 60.2%	1.71 58.5%
yes	2.10 47.6%	2.19 45.7%	2.09 47.9%	2.10 47.6%	2.10 47.6%	2.05 48.8%	2.05 48.8%	2.09 47.9%	2.19 45.7%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Marathonbet
draw_away	1.17 85.5%	1.20 83.3%	1.18 84.8%	1.14 87.7%	1.20 83.3%	1.19 84.0%
home_away	1.25 80.0%	1.32 75.8%	1.30 76.9%	1.28 78.1%	1.31 76.3%	1.32 75.8%
home_draw	2.00 50.0%	2.11 47.4%	2.00 50.0%	2.05 48.8%	2.02 49.5%	2.10 47.6%

Match center

Alaves

L W D W W

22.08 19:30 UTC La Liga

Alaves 0:1 Real Betis

16.08 19:30 UTC La Liga

Alaves 2:1 Levante

24.05 19:00 UTC La Liga

Alaves 1:1 Osasuna

18.05 17:00 UTC La Liga

Alaves 1:0 Valladolid

14.05 17:00 UTC La Liga

Alaves 1:0 Valencia

3 Wins

1 Draws

1 Losses

1.0 Scored

0.6 Conceded

10 Points

Atletico Madrid

D L W W L

23.08 17:30 UTC La Liga

Atletico Madrid 1:1 Elche

17.08 19:30 UTC La Liga

Atletico Madrid 1:2 Espanyol

25.05 12:00 UTC La Liga

Atletico Madrid 4:0 Girona

18.05 17:00 UTC La Liga

Atletico Madrid 4:1 Real Betis

15.05 17:00 UTC La Liga

Atletico Madrid 0:2 Osasuna

2 Wins

1 Draws

2 Losses

2.0 Scored

1.2 Conceded

7 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyAlaves - Atletico Madrid

Alaves

1 matches total

Atletico Madrid

Alaves: 0 (0%)

Draws:1 (100%)

Atletico Madrid: 0 (0%)

Biggest win — largest score margin

Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw 0:0 (03.05 12:00 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0

0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

03.05 12:00 UTC

La Liga

Alaves

0:0

Atletiko Madrid