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La Liga
La Liga Spain
23.02.2026 20:00 UTC Match prediction
23.02.2026 20:00 UTC
Finished

La Liga

Spain

Alaves - Girona

Spain Football
Alaves
Alaves
2 : 2
Finished
Girona
Girona

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Alaves - Girona February 23, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Alaves.

Line favourite market consensus: Alaves. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.46 / X 2.97 / 2 3.21
  • 1X2 market: Alaves 38.5% / X 31.9% / Girona 29.6%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 59.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.5%
1 38.5%
X 31.9%
2 29.5%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.6%
Over 2.5 41.0%
Under 2.5 59.0%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 23.02.2026 20:00 UTC
Match center

Alaves - Girona

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 2 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.22 market consensus · line only
X 2.98 market consensus · line only
1 2.47 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.55 market consensus · line only
12 1.38 market consensus · line only
1X 1.35 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.58 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.23 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 3.19 market consensus · line only
2 +1 6.18 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.33 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.62 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.83 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.93 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
2.52 39.7%
X 3.02 33.1%
3.33 30.0%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
2.40 41.7% 2.49 40.2% 2.56 39.1% 2.45 40.8% 2.40 41.7% 2.47 40.5%
X 2.94 34.0% 3.00 33.3% 3.06 32.7% 2.90 34.5% 3.00 33.3% 2.95 33.9%
3.20 31.3% 3.30 30.3% 3.36 29.8% 3.00 33.3% 3.20 31.3% 3.25 30.8%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 1.85 54.1% 1.89 52.9% 1.82 55.0% 1.75 57.1% 1.80 55.6% 1.88 53.2% 1.83 54.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.89 52.9%
yes 1.90 52.6% 1.92 52.1% 1.90 52.6% 2.00 50.0% 1.95 51.3% 1.87 53.5% 1.91 52.4% 1.90 52.6% 1.97 50.8%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.55 64.5% 1.58 63.3% 1.53 65.4% 1.53 65.4% 1.57 63.7% 1.50 66.7%
home_away 1.35 74.1% 1.43 69.9% 1.36 73.5% 1.36 73.5% 1.38 72.5% 1.30 76.9%
home_draw 1.30 76.9% 1.37 73.0% 1.33 75.2% 1.33 75.2% 1.36 73.5% 1.33 75.2%
Match center
Alaves
D L W W L
14.02 17:30 UTC La Liga
Alaves 1:1 SevillaSevilla
08.02 13:00 UTC La Liga
Alaves 0:2 GetafeGetafe
30.01 20:00 UTC La Liga
Alaves 2:1 EspanyolEspanyol
25.01 20:00 UTC La Liga
Alaves 2:1 Real BetisReal Betis
18.01 15:15 UTC La Liga
Alaves 0:1 Atletiko MadridAtletiko Madrid
2 Wins
1 Draws
2 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.2 Conceded
7 Points
Girona
W D L D W
16.02 20:00 UTC La Liga
Girona 2:1 BarselonaBarselona
08.02 15:15 UTC La Liga
Girona 1:1 SevillaSevilla
31.01 13:00 UTC La Liga
Girona 0:1 OviedoOviedo
26.01 20:00 UTC La Liga
Girona 1:1 GetafeGetafe
16.01 20:00 UTC La Liga
Girona 2:0 EspanyolEspanyol
2 Wins
2 Draws
1 Losses
1.2 Scored
0.8 Conceded
8 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyAlaves - Girona

Alaves
2 matches total
Girona
Alaves: 1 (50%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Girona: 1 (50%)
Biggest win Girona 0:1 (08.11 13:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 1 goals (0:1, 08.11 13:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 1
1 Goals conceded 1

Match history

08.11 13:00 UTC La Liga
Alaves
0:1
Girona
05.04 12:00 UTC La Liga
Alaves
1:0
Girona