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La Liga Spain

18.01.2026 15:15 UTC Match prediction

18.01.2026 15:15 UTC

Finished

La Liga

Atletico Madrid - Alaves

Spain Football

Atletico Madrid

1 : 0

Finished

Alaves

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Atletico Madrid - Alaves January 18, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Atletico Madrid.

Line favourite market consensus: Atletico Madrid. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.37 / X 4.82 / 2 8.89
1X2 market: Atletico Madrid 69.5% / X 19.7% / Alaves 10.7%
Total 2.5: over probability 50.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.0%

1 69.5%

X 19.8%

2 10.7%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.7%

Over 2.5 50.0%

Under 2.5 50.0%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Start 18.01.2026 15:15 UTC

Match center

Atletico Madrid - Alaves

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 2 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 8.93 market consensus · line only

X 4.84 market consensus · line only

1 1.37 market consensus · line only

Double chance

X2 3.10 market consensus · line only

12 1.19 market consensus · line only

1X 1.08 market consensus · line only

Handicap

2 -0.5 3.14 market consensus · line only

2 -1 2.38 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 7.23 market consensus · line only

1 -0.5 1.35 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.91 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 1.91 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 1.63 market consensus · line only

Yes 2.22 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome	SStats Consensus
	1.37 73.0%
X	5.04 19.8%
	9.53 10.5%

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
	1.35 74.1%	1.38 72.5%	1.42 70.4%	1.36 73.5%	1.36 73.5%	1.42 70.4%
X	4.75 21.1%	5.00 20.0%	4.84 20.7%	4.60 21.7%	4.75 21.1%	4.75 21.1%
	9.20 10.9%	8.70 11.5%	8.15 12.3%	8.00 12.5%	9.00 11.1%	9.25 10.8%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	Marathonbet	Pinnacle
no	1.57 63.7%	1.65 60.6%	1.70 58.8%	1.67 59.9%	1.67 59.9%	1.62 61.7%	1.57 63.7%	1.59 62.9%	1.66 60.2%
yes	2.30 43.5%	2.25 44.4%	2.16 46.3%	2.10 47.6%	2.10 47.6%	2.20 45.5%	2.20 45.5%	2.21 45.3%	2.31 43.3%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Marathonbet
draw_away	3.10 32.3%	2.96 33.8%	2.90 34.5%	3.00 33.3%	3.05 32.8%	3.20 31.3%
home_away	1.13 88.5%	1.20 83.3%	1.20 83.3%	1.18 84.8%	1.19 84.0%	1.20 83.3%
home_draw	1.05 95.2%	1.10 90.9%	1.08 92.6%	1.08 92.6%	1.09 91.7%	1.08 92.6%

Match center

Atletico Madrid

D W W L L

04.01 20:00 UTC La Liga

Atletico Madrid 1:1 Real Sociedad

21.12 13:00 UTC La Liga

Atletico Madrid 3:0 Girona

13.12 13:00 UTC La Liga

Atletico Madrid 2:1 Valencia

06.12 20:00 UTC La Liga

Atletico Madrid 0:1 Athletic Club

02.12 20:00 UTC La Liga

Atletico Madrid 1:3 Barselona

2 Wins

1 Draws

2 Losses

1.4 Scored

1.2 Conceded

7 Points

Alaves

L D L L W

10.01 15:15 UTC La Liga

Alaves 1:3 Villarreal

04.01 17:30 UTC La Liga

Alaves 1:1 Oviedo

20.12 17:30 UTC La Liga

Alaves 0:3 Osasuna

14.12 20:00 UTC La Liga

Alaves 1:2 Real Madrid

06.12 15:15 UTC La Liga

Alaves 1:0 Real Sociedad

1 Wins

1 Draws

3 Losses

0.8 Scored

1.8 Conceded

4 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyAtletico Madrid - Alaves

Atletico Madrid

2 matches total

Alaves

Atletico Madrid: 0 (0%)

Draws:2 (100%)

Alaves: 0 (0%)

Biggest win — largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 2 goals (1:1, 30.08 15:00 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw 1:1 (30.08 15:00 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0

0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

30.08 15:00 UTC

La Liga

Atletiko Madrid

1:1

Alaves

03.05 12:00 UTC

La Liga

Atletiko Madrid

0:0

Alaves