Free access Sign in to unlock the full prediction Create a free account to see the full AI breakdown, probabilities, risks and history.
La Liga
La Liga Spain
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data Line Form H2H Prediction
13.09.2025 19:00 UTC
Finished

La Liga

Spain

Atletico Madrid - Villarreal

Spain Football
Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid
2 : 0
Finished
Villarreal
Villarreal

Atletico Madrid take on Villarreal on September 13, 2025 in the La Liga, Spain.

Recent form (W-D-L): Atletico Madrid 2-2-1, Villarreal 4-1-0. The market favourite is Atletico Madrid at roughly 54%. Below: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PrognozAI AI breakdown.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Atletico Madrid - Villarreal September 13, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Atletico Madrid.

Line favourite market consensus: Atletico Madrid. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.77 / X 3.76 / 2 4.62
  • 1X2 market: Atletico Madrid 53.9% / X 25.4% / Villarreal 20.7%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 55.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.4% 15 books · best price +6.2%
1 54.1%
X 25.4%
2 20.5%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.0%
Over 2.5 55.7%
Under 2.5 44.3%

Odds source: consensus of 15 books (10Bet, 188Bet, 1xBet, 888Sport, Bet365, Betano). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.

Match center
Start 13.09.2025 19:00 UTC
Market 1 53.9% @ 1.77 / X 25.4% @ 3.76 / 2 20.7% @ 4.62
Match center

Atletico Madrid - Villarreal

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 4.63 market consensus · line only
X 3.76 market consensus · line only
1 1.77 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 2.06 market consensus · line only
12 1.27 market consensus · line only
1X 1.20 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.10 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.62 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 4.32 market consensus · line only
2 +1 8.30 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.71 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.15 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.17 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.65 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
1.78 56.2%
X 3.84 26.0%
4.86 20.6%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
1.73 57.8% 1.74 57.5% 1.82 55.0% 1.75 57.1% 1.73 57.8% 1.83 54.6%
X 3.80 26.3% 3.80 26.3% 3.86 25.9% 3.60 27.8% 3.90 25.6% 3.90 25.6%
4.55 22.0% 4.85 20.6% 4.81 20.8% 4.50 22.2% 4.50 22.2% 4.55 22.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Dafabet Marathonbet
no 2.15 46.5% 2.23 44.8% 2.13 47.0% 2.20 45.5% 2.10 47.6% 2.15 46.5% 2.15 46.5% 2.21 45.3% 2.11 47.4%
yes 1.62 61.7% 1.67 59.9% 1.65 60.6% 1.62 61.7% 1.67 59.9% 1.65 60.6% 1.67 59.9% 1.67 59.9% 1.65 60.6%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Dafabet
draw_away 2.05 48.8% 2.10 47.6% 2.05 48.8% 2.05 48.8% 2.05 48.8% 1.87 53.5%
home_away 1.22 82.0% 1.30 76.9% 1.29 77.5% 1.25 80.0% 1.26 79.4% 1.28 78.1%
home_draw 1.20 83.3% 1.22 82.0% 1.20 83.3% 1.18 84.8% 1.24 80.7% 1.24 80.7%
Match center
Atletico Madrid
D D L W W
30.08 15:00 UTC La Liga
Atletico Madrid 1:1 AlavesAlaves
23.08 17:30 UTC La Liga
Atletico Madrid 1:1 ElcheElche
17.08 19:30 UTC La Liga
Atletico Madrid 1:2 EspanyolEspanyol
25.05 12:00 UTC La Liga
Atletico Madrid 4:0 GironaGirona
18.05 17:00 UTC La Liga
Atletico Madrid 4:1 Real BetisReal Betis
2 Wins
2 Draws
1 Losses
2.2 Scored
1.0 Conceded
8 Points
Villarreal
D W W W W
31.08 15:00 UTC La Liga
Villarreal 1:1 SeltaSelta
24.08 17:30 UTC La Liga
Villarreal 5:0 GironaGirona
15.08 19:30 UTC La Liga
Villarreal 2:0 OviedoOviedo
25.05 14:15 UTC La Liga
Villarreal 4:2 SevillaSevilla
18.05 17:00 UTC La Liga
Villarreal 3:2 BarselonaBarselona
4 Wins
1 Draws
0 Losses
3.0 Scored
1.0 Conceded
13 Points