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La Liga Spain

22.03.2026 13:00 UTC Match prediction

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction

22.03.2026 13:00 UTC

Finished

La Liga

Barcelona - Rayo Vallecano

Spain Football

Stadium Camp Nou

Referee Adrian Cordero Vega

Barcelona

1 : 0

Finished

Rayo Vallecano

Barcelona meet Rayo Vallecano on March 22, 2026 in the La Liga, Spain.

Recent form (W-D-L): Barcelona 4-0-1, Rayo Vallecano 1-4-0. These sides have met 1 time recently — the head-to-head record is shown below. The bookmaker line makes Barcelona the favourite at about 78%. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 77% to win — broadly in line with the market. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PrognozAI AI pick.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Barcelona — 77%

1 · Barcelona ✓ Pick76.6%

market78%

X · draw15.0%

market13%

2 · Rayo Vallecano8.4%

market8%

Model estimate: win Barcelona 76.6%, draw 15.0%, win Rayo Vallecano 8.4%. Model favourite — Barcelona.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Barcelona - Rayo Vallecano March 22, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Barcelona.

Strongest: Barcelona - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.22 / X 7.05 / 2 11.37
1X2 market: Barcelona 78.0% / X 13.5% / Rayo Vallecano 8.5%
Glicko: Barcelona 76.6% / X 15.0% / Rayo Vallecano 8.4%
Total 2.5: over probability 42.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.8% 14 books · best price +2.0%

1 ✓ Pick 78.1%

X 13.5%

2 8.4%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 7.0%

Over 2.5 72.4%

Under 2.5 27.6%

Odds source: consensus of 14 books (10Bet, 188Bet, 1xBet, 888Sport, Bet365, BetVictor). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome

Agreement 4/4

Confidence 78.1%

Total Over 2.5

Score 3:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center

Start 22.03.2026 13:00 UTC

Market 1 78.1% @ 1.22 / X 13.5% @ 7.05 / 2 8.4% @ 11.37

Stadium Camp Nou (Barcelona)

Referee Adrian Cordero Vega

Chast faktov dobrana iz SStats.

🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Barcelona 77%

💹 Market Barcelona 7801%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Barcelona - Rayo Vallecano

Barcelona: win 1.25 Barcelona: draw 7.25 Rayo Vallecano win: 12.50 Obschiy Total goals Over 3.5: 1.81 Obschiy Total goals Under 3.5: 2.06 Individualnyy Total goals Barcelona Over 2.5: 1.68 Individualnyy Total goals Barcelona Under 2.5: 2.22 Individualnyy Total goals …

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 1:0

Events 18

Statistics 24

Lineups 44

min Event Player Team

8' 8' Yellow Card | Raphinha J. Navarro Barcelona

24' 24' Normal Goal | Ronald Araújo | assist/sub out: João Cancelo Barcelona

26' 26' Yellow Card | Lamine Yamal Barcelona

34' 34' Yellow Card | Óscar Valentín Rayo Vallecano

46' 46' Substitution 1 | Robert Lewandowski | assist/sub out: Ferran Torres Nicolas Villarroel Galindo Barcelona

46' 46' Substitution 1 | Carlos Martín | assist/sub out: Álvaro García Rayo Vallecano

46' 46' Substitution 2 | Óscar Valentín | assist/sub out: A. Espino Rayo Vallecano

59' 59' Substitution 3 | Gumbau | assist/sub out: Unai López Rayo Vallecano

Metric Barcelona Rayo Vallecano SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.39 1.56 final

Zablokirovannye udary 5 1 final

Shots off target 6 3 final

Shots on target 4 4 final

Udary vsego 15 8 final

Fouls soversheno 12 11 final

Zheltye kartochki 3 4 final

Offsides 0 3 final

Barcelona #2 João Cancelo, #4 R. Araújo, #5 P. Cubarsi, #8 Pedri, #9 R. Lewandowski, #10 Lamine Yamal, #11 Raphinha, #13 J. Garcia, #16 Fermín, #18 G. Martin, #22 M. Bernal

Rayo Vallecano #2 A. Rațiu, #3 Pep Chavarría, #4 Pedro Díaz, #6 P. Ciss, #7 Isi Palazón, #13 A. Batalla, #14 Carlos Martín, #15 Gumbau, #21 Fran Pérez, #23 Óscar Valentín, #24 F. Lejeune

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Batalla Rayo Vallecano football.player.assists 0

A. Batalla Rayo Vallecano Dribling popytki 1

A. Batalla Rayo Vallecano Dribling uspeshno 2

A. Batalla Rayo Vallecano Edinoborstva vyigrano 2

A. Batalla Rayo Vallecano Fouls na igroke 1

A. Batalla Rayo Vallecano Seyvy 1

A. Batalla Rayo Vallecano football.player.minutes_played 90

A. Batalla Rayo Vallecano Klyuchevye pasy 34

A. Batalla Rayo Vallecano Reyting 3

A. Batalla Rayo Vallecano Reyting (staryy) 7.7

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Barcelona 79.3% 76.6% market and model agree

Draw 13.0% 15.0% draw risk

Rayo Vallecano 7.6% 8.4%

xG - 2.51 : 0.71

Total 2.5 Over 42.6% - Under 57.4%

Model check - - Difference 0.03

Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.03

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 76.6% / 15.0% / 8.4% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,776 / 1,500 Barcelona / Rayo Vallecano

RD 86 / 75 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

X 7.07 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 1.22 market consensus · no value · model 76.6%

2 9.77 market consensus · no value · model 8.4%

Double chance

X2 4.26 market consensus · no value · model 23.4%

12 1.10 market consensus · no value · model 85.0%

1X 1.05 market consensus · no value · model 91.6%

Handicap

2 -0.5 4.18 market consensus · line only

2 -1 3.50 market consensus · line only

1 -0.5 1.19 market consensus · line only

1 -1 1.28 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.29 market consensus · no value · model 42.6%

Under 2.5 3.39 market consensus · weak value +94.6% · model 57.4%

Both teams to score

No 2.10 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.69 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome	SStats Consensus
	1.23 81.3%
X	7.20 13.9%
	10.79 9.3%

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
	1.23 81.3%	1.23 81.3%	1.24 80.7%	1.22 82.0%	1.22 82.0%	1.25 80.0%
X	6.60 15.2%	7.20 13.9%	7.60 13.2%	6.50 15.4%	7.50 13.3%	7.10 14.1%
	9.80 10.2%	11.00 9.1%	12.70 7.9%	10.00 10.0%	9.50 10.5%	11.75 8.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet
no	2.10 47.6%	2.14 46.7%	2.08 48.1%	2.10 47.6%	2.05 48.8%	2.07 48.3%	2.15 46.5%	2.10 47.6%	2.06 48.5%
yes	1.70 58.8%	1.72 58.1%	1.68 59.5%	1.67 59.9%	1.70 58.8%	1.70 58.8%	1.67 59.9%	1.67 59.9%	1.68 59.5%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	4.00 25.0%	4.52 22.1%	4.20 23.8%	3.75 26.7%	4.25 23.5%	4.50 22.2%
home_away	1.10 90.9%	1.12 89.3%	1.11 90.1%	1.10 90.9%	1.11 90.1%	1.07 93.5%
home_draw	1.04 96.2%	1.05 95.2%	1.05 95.2%	1.06 94.3%	1.07 93.5%	1.03 97.1%

Match center

Barcelona

Founded 1899

Rayo Vallecano

Founded 1924

Match center

Barcelona

FD F. de Jong Hamstring Injury

JK J. Koundé Hamstring Injury

Rayo Vallecano

DM Diego Méndez Injury

NM N. Mendy Red Card

Barcelona Founded: 1899

Rayo Vallecano Founded: 1924

Match center

Barcelona

W W W W L

15.03 15:15 UTC La Liga

Barcelona 5:2 Sevilla

07.03 20:00 UTC La Liga

Barcelona 1:0 Athletic Club

28.02 15:15 UTC La Liga

Barcelona 4:1 Villarreal

22.02 15:15 UTC La Liga

Barcelona 3:0 Levante

16.02 20:00 UTC La Liga

Barcelona 1:2 Girona

4 Wins

0 Draws

1 Losses

2.8 Scored

1.0 Conceded

12 Points

Rayo Vallecano

D D W D D

16.03 20:00 UTC La Liga

Rayo Vallecano 1:1 Levante

08.03 17:30 UTC La Liga

Rayo Vallecano 1:1 Sevilla

04.03 18:00 UTC La Liga

Rayo Vallecano 3:0 Oviedo

28.02 13:00 UTC La Liga

Rayo Vallecano 1:1 Athletic Club

21.02 15:15 UTC La Liga

Rayo Vallecano 1:1 Real Betis

1 Wins

4 Draws

0 Losses

1.4 Scored

0.8 Conceded

7 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyBarcelona - Rayo Vallecano

Barcelona

1 matches total

Rayo Vallecano

Barcelona: 0 (0%)

Draws:1 (100%)

Rayo Vallecano: 0 (0%)

Biggest win — largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 2 goals (1:1, 31.08 19:30 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw 1:1 (31.08 19:30 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0

0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

31.08 19:30 UTC

La Liga

Barselona

1:1

Rayo Vallecano

Match center

Season table: unavailable.

The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.