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La Liga Spain

22.03.2026 15:15 UTC Match prediction

22.03.2026 15:15 UTC

Finished

La Liga

Celta Vigo - Alaves

Spain Football

Referee Miguel Sesma Espinosa

Celta Vigo

3 : 4

Finished

Alaves

Celta Vigo meet Alaves on March 22, 2026 in the La Liga, Spain.

Recent form (W-D-L): Celta Vigo 2-2-1, Alaves 0-3-2. These sides have met 1 time recently — the head-to-head record is shown below. The bookmaker line makes Celta Vigo the favourite at about 49%. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 49% to win — broadly in line with the market. Read on for detailed stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PrognozAI neural-network verdict.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Celta Vigo — 49%

1 · Celta Vigo48.9%

X · draw26.7%

2 · Alaves24.4%

Model estimate: win Celta Vigo 48.9%, draw 26.7%, win Alaves 24.4%. Model favourite — Celta Vigo.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Celta Vigo - Alaves March 22, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Celta Vigo.

Strongest: Celta Vigo - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.93 / X 3.27 / 2 4.41
1X2 market: Celta Vigo 49.3% / X 29.1% / Alaves 21.7%
Glicko: Celta Vigo 48.9% / X 26.7% / Alaves 24.4%
Total 2.5: over probability 43.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.1%

1 49.3%

X 29.1%

2 21.6%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.2%

Over 2.5 43.4%

Under 2.5 56.6%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome

Agreement 4/4

Confidence 49.4%

Total Under 2.5

Score 1:0

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center

Start 22.03.2026 15:15 UTC

Market 1 49.3% @ 1.93 / X 29.1% @ 3.27 / 2 21.6% @ 4.41

Referee Miguel Sesma Espinosa

🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Celta Vigo 49%

💹 Market Celta Vigo 4926%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Celta Vigo - Alaves

Celta Vigo: win 1.96 Celta Vigo: draw 3.26 Alaves win: 4.69 Obschiy Total goals bolshe 2.5: 2.24 Obschiy Total goals menshe 2.5: 1.70 Individualnyy Total goals Celta Vigo bolshe 1.5: 2.17 Individualnyy Total goals Celta Vigo menshe 1.5: 1.73 Individualnyy Total goals Alave…

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 3:4

Events 22

Statistics 24

Lineups 43

min Event Player Team

19' 19' Normal Goal | Ferran Jutglà Celta Vigo

22' 22' Yellow Card | Jon Pacheco Alaves

27' 27' Normal Goal | Hugo Álvarez | assist/sub out: Ferran Jutglà Celta Vigo

37' 37' Normal Goal | Ferran Jutglà | assist/sub out: Hugo Sotelo Celta Vigo

45+3' 45+3' Yellow Card | Javi Rodríguez Celta Vigo

45+3' 45+3' Normal Goal | Toni Martínez | assist/sub out: A. Perez Alaves

46' 46' Substitution 1 | Jon Pacheco | assist/sub out: A. Rebbach Alaves

46' 46' Substitution 2 | Pablo IbGЎG±ez | assist/sub out: Jon Guridi Alaves

Metric Celta Vigo Alaves SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.84 1.83 final

Zablokirovannye udary 4 1 final

Shots off target 3 7 final

Shots on target 5 6 final

Udary vsego 12 14 final

Fouls soversheno 13 16 final

Zheltye kartochki 2 2 final

Offsides 0 2 final

Celta Vigo #3 G“scar Mingueza, #4 J. Aidoo, #7 B. Iglesias, #9 Ferran JutglG , #13 I. Radu, #14 GЃlvaro NGєG±ez, #22 Hugo Sotelo, #23 Hugo GЃlvarez, #24 Carlos DomGnguez, #32 Javi RodrGguez, #39 J. El Abdellaoui

Alaves #1 Sivera, #5 Jon Pacheco, #7 A. Perez, #8 Antonio Blanco, #10 Carles AleG±GЎ, #11 Toni MartGnez, #14 N. Tenaglia, #15 L. BoyG©, #17 Jonny, #19 Pablo IbGЎG±ez, #24 VGctor Parada

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Perez Alaves football.player.assists 1

A. Perez Alaves Dribling popytki 3

A. Perez Alaves Edinoborstva vsego 1

A. Perez Alaves Edinoborstva vyigrano 6

A. Perez Alaves Fouls soversheno 1

A. Perez Alaves football.player.goals 1

A. Perez Alaves Conceded golov 1

A. Perez Alaves Seyvy 0

A. Perez Alaves football.player.minutes_played 90

A. Perez Alaves Tochnost pasov % 4

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Celta Vigo 49.6% 48.9% market and model agree

Draw 29.2% 26.7% draw risk

Alaves 21.2% 24.4%

xG - 1.44 : 0.93

Total 2.5 Over 43.7% - Under 56.3%

Model check - - Difference 0.03

Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.03

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 48.9% / 26.7% / 24.4% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,557 / 1,447 Celta Vigo / Alaves

RD 75 / 76 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 4.45 market consensus · no value · model 24.4%

X 3.28 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 1.93 market consensus · no value · model 48.9%

Double chance

X2 1.87 market consensus · no value · model 51.1%

12 1.33 market consensus · no value · model 73.3%

1X 1.22 market consensus · no value · model 75.6%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.91 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.45 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 4.17 market consensus · line only

2 +1 9.30 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 2.19 market consensus · no value · model 43.7%

Under 2.5 1.68 market consensus · no value · model 56.3%

Both teams to score

No 1.82 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.92 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome	SStats Consensus
	1.85 54.1%
X	3.40 29.4%
	4.99 20.0%

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
	1.90 52.6%	1.95 51.3%	2.00 50.0%	1.91 52.4%	1.91 52.4%	1.98 50.5%
X	3.20 31.3%	3.30 30.3%	3.34 29.9%	3.20 31.3%	3.30 30.3%	3.25 30.8%
	4.33 23.1%	4.45 22.5%	4.62 21.7%	4.20 23.8%	4.50 22.2%	4.65 21.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet
no	1.80 55.6%	1.87 53.5%	1.79 55.9%	1.83 54.6%	1.80 55.6%	1.85 54.1%	1.80 55.6%	1.80 55.6%	1.78 56.2%
yes	1.93 51.8%	1.94 51.6%	1.94 51.6%	1.85 54.1%	1.95 51.3%	1.88 53.2%	1.95 51.3%	1.93 51.8%	1.93 51.8%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.85 54.1%	1.90 52.6%	1.85 54.1%	1.83 54.6%	1.88 53.2%	1.83 54.6%
home_away	1.28 78.1%	1.38 72.5%	1.33 75.2%	1.33 75.2%	1.33 75.2%	1.29 77.5%
home_draw	1.20 83.3%	1.24 80.7%	1.22 82.0%	1.18 84.8%	1.23 81.3%	1.20 83.3%

Match center

Celta Vigo

Founded 1923

Alaves

Founded 1921

Match center

Celta Vigo

MV M. Vecino Muscle Injury

MA Marcos Alonso Rest

Alaves

CB C. Benavídez Injury

FG F. Garcés Suspended

Celta Vigo Founded: 1923

Alaves Founded: 1921

Match center

Celta Vigo

D L W W D

15.03 17:30 UTC La Liga

Celta Vigo 1:1 Real Betis

06.03 20:00 UTC La Liga

Celta Vigo 1:2 Real Madrid

01.03 20:00 UTC La Liga

Celta Vigo 2:1 Girona

22.02 17:30 UTC La Liga

Celta Vigo 2:0 Mallorca

14.02 13:00 UTC La Liga

Celta Vigo 2:2 Espanyol

2 Wins

2 Draws

1 Losses

1.6 Scored

1.2 Conceded

8 Points

Alaves

D L L D D

13.03 20:00 UTC La Liga

Alaves 1:1 Villarreal

08.03 20:00 UTC La Liga

Alaves 2:3 Valencia

27.02 20:00 UTC La Liga

Alaves 0:2 Levante

23.02 20:00 UTC La Liga

Alaves 2:2 Girona

14.02 17:30 UTC La Liga

Alaves 1:1 Sevilla

0 Wins

3 Draws

2 Losses

1.2 Scored

1.8 Conceded

3 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyCelta Vigo - Alaves

Celta Vigo

1 matches total

Alaves

Celta Vigo: 0 (0%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Alaves: 1 (100%)

Biggest win Selta 1:0 (22.11 13:00 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 1 goals (1:0, 22.11 13:00 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0

0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

22.11 13:00 UTC

La Liga

Selta

1:0

Alaves

Match center

Season table: unavailable.

The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.