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La Liga
La Liga Spain
34 round 03.05.2026 12:00 UTC Match prediction
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction
03.05.2026 12:00 UTC 34 round
Finished

La Liga

Spain

Celta Vigo - Elche

Spain Football
Stadium Balaidos
Celta Vigo
Celta Vigo
3 : 1
Finished
Elche
Elche

Celta Vigo take on Elche on May 3, 2026 in the La Liga, Spain.

Recent form (W-D-L): Celta Vigo 1-0-4, Elche 4-0-1. These sides have met 1 time recently — the head-to-head record is shown below. Sportsbooks lean towards Celta Vigo, an implied 55% to win. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 49% to win — below the market read. Read on for detailed stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PrognozAI neural-network verdict.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Celta Vigo — 49%

1 · Celta Vigo49.4%
X · draw25.0%
2 · Elche25.5%

Model estimate: win Celta Vigo 49.4%, draw 25.0%, win Elche 25.5%. Model favourite — Celta Vigo.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Celta Vigo - Elche May 3, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Celta Vigo.

Strongest: Celta Vigo - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.73 / X 3.92 / 2 4.65
  • 1X2 market: Celta Vigo 55.2% / X 24.3% / Elche 20.5%
  • Glicko: Celta Vigo 49.4% / X 25.0% / Elche 25.5%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 37.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.5% 12 books · best price +3.2%
1 55.3%
X 24.3%
2 20.4%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.9%
Over 2.5 56.1%
Under 2.5 43.9%

Odds source: consensus of 12 books (10Bet, 1xBet, Bet365, BetVictor, Betano, Betfair). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 4/5
Confidence 52.3%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:0

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center
Stadium Abanka Balaidos (Vigo, Spain), 15 401 zritel (62% pri vmestimosti 24 791)
Referee De Burgos Bengoechea (Bilbao)
Start 03.05.2026 12:00 UTC
Market 1 55.1% @ 1.73 / X 24.3% @ 3.92 / 2 20.5% @ 4.65
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Celta Vigo 49%
💹 Market Celta Vigo 5519%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Celta Vigo - Elche

Itogovyy protokol i rezultaty vstrechi Selta - Elche, 3 maya 2026. Highlights i statistika matcha, Correct score. Championship Spain po futbolu (La Liga) 2025-2026, 34-y Round. Selta - Elche, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matcha.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

7/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 3:1
Events 17
Statistics 24
Lineups 44
min Event Player Team
14' 14' Normal Goal | H. Alvarez Hugo Álvarez Celta Vigo
28' 28' Yellow Card | G. Villar G. Villar Elche
30' 30' Normal Goal | I. Aspas | assist/sub out: F. Jutgla Iago Aspas Celta Vigo
41' 41' Yellow Card | J. Rueda Javi Rueda Celta Vigo
46' 46' Substitution 1 | J. Rueda | assist/sub out: M. Fernandez Javi Rueda Celta Vigo
58' 58' Substitution 1 | D. Affengruber | assist/sub out: V. Chust D. Affengruber Elche
58' 58' Substitution 2 | G. Villar | assist/sub out: M. Neto G. Villar Elche
63' 63' Substitution 2 | I. Aspas | assist/sub out: J. El Abdellaoui Iago Aspas Celta Vigo
Metric Celta Vigo Elche SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.05 1.71 final
Zablokirovannye udary 1 3 final
Shots off target 1 8 final
Shots on target 4 4 final
Udary vsego 6 15 final
Fouls soversheno 14 15 final
Zheltye kartochki 2 1 final
Offsides 0 1 final
Celta Vigo #5 Sergio Carreira, #9 Ferran JutglG , #13 I. Radu, #14 GЃlvaro NGєG±ez, #23 Hugo GЃlvarez, #6 I. Moriba, #10 Iago Aspas, #29 Yoel Lago, #8 Fer LGіpez, #32 Javi RodrG­guez, #17 Javi Rueda
Elche #1 M. Dituro, #3 A. Pedrosa, #6 P. Bigas, #9 Andre Silva, #12 G. Villar, #14 A. Febas, #20 A. Rodriguez, #22 D. Affengruber, #8 M. Aguado, #18 J. Donald, #15 Tete Morente
Player Team Metric SStats
GЃlvaro NGєG±ez Celta Vigo football.player.assists 0
GЃlvaro NGєG±ez Celta Vigo Dribling popytki 1
GЃlvaro NGєG±ez Celta Vigo Edinoborstva vyigrano 4
GЃlvaro NGєG±ez Celta Vigo Seyvy 0
GЃlvaro NGєG±ez Celta Vigo football.player.minutes_played 78
GЃlvaro NGєG±ez Celta Vigo Klyuchevye pasy 24
GЃlvaro NGєG±ez Celta Vigo Reyting (staryy) 6.5
GЃlvaro NGєG±ez Celta Vigo Bloki 1
GЃlvaro NGєG±ez Celta Vigo Perekhvaty 1
GЃlvaro NGєG±ez Celta Vigo Otbory vsego 17
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Celta Vigo 54.6% 49.4% market and model agree
Draw 24.7% 25.0% draw risk
Elche 20.7% 25.5%
xG - 1.59 : 1.07
Total 2.5 Over 37.5% - Under 62.5%
Model check - - Difference 0.05
Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.05

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 49.4% / 25.0% / 25.5% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,526 / 1,485 Celta Vigo / Elche
RD 72 / 73 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 4.65 market consensus · no value · model 25.5%
X 3.92 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.73 market consensus · no value · model 49.4%
Double chance
X2 2.11 market consensus · value +6.7% · model 50.6%
12 1.23 market consensus · no value · model 75.0%
1X 1.19 market consensus · no value · model 74.5%
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.15 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.65 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 4.24 market consensus · line only
2 +1 8.60 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.70 market consensus · no value · model 37.5%
Under 2.5 2.17 market consensus · value +35.6% · model 62.5%
Both teams to score
No 2.14 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.65 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor
1.70 58.8% 1.78 56.2% 1.70 58.8% 1.78 56.2% 1.67 59.9% 1.70 58.8%
X 3.80 26.3% 4.04 24.8% 3.90 25.6% 4.00 25.0% 3.90 25.6% 4.00 25.0%
4.55 22.0% 4.88 20.5% 4.75 21.1% 4.80 20.8% 4.75 21.1% 4.60 21.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet William Hill
no 2.20 45.5% 2.15 46.5% 2.10 47.6% 2.15 46.5% 2.20 45.5% 2.15 46.5% 2.12 47.2% 2.06 48.5% 2.10 47.6%
yes 1.62 61.7% 1.64 61.0% 1.67 59.9% 1.65 60.6% 1.62 61.7% 1.62 61.7% 1.64 61.0% 1.70 58.8% 1.70 58.8%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor
draw_away 2.10 47.6% 2.16 46.3% 2.10 47.6% 2.12 47.2% 2.10 47.6% 2.05 48.8%
home_away 1.20 83.3% 1.28 78.1% 1.25 80.0% 1.25 80.0% 1.20 83.3% 1.20 83.3%
home_draw 1.18 84.8% 1.22 82.0% 1.18 84.8% 1.22 82.0% 1.17 85.5% 1.20 83.3%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.04 96.2% 1.00 100.0%
Over 0.75 — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0 — 1.00 100.0%
Over 1.25 — 1.10 90.9%
Over 1.5 1.22 82.0% 1.18 84.8%
Over 1.75 — 1.24 80.7%
Over 2.0 — 1.29 77.5%
Over 2.25 — 1.56 64.1%
Over 2.5 1.67 59.9% —
Over 3.5 2.65 37.7% —
Over 4.5 4.75 21.1% —
Under 0.5 10.00 10.0% —
Under 1.5 4.20 23.8% —
Under 2.5 2.15 46.5% —
Under 3.5 1.48 67.6% —
Under 4.5 1.18 84.8% —
Match center
Celta Vigo
Founded 1923
Elche
Founded 1923
Match center
Celta Vigo
MR Migel Roman pz
KS Karl Starfelt zsch
MV Matias Vesino pz
Elche
AB Adam Boyar Diskvalifitsirovannye np
MA Markos Alonso CHAMP zsch
KhV Kherman Valera CHAMP np
Celta Vigo Founded: 1923
Elche Founded: 1923
Match center
Celta Vigo
L L L W L
26.04 19:00 UTC La Liga
Celta Vigo 1:2 VillarrealVillarreal
22.04 19:30 UTC La Liga
Celta Vigo 0:1 BarselonaBarselona
12.04 16:30 UTC La Liga
Celta Vigo 0:3 OviedoOviedo
05.04 14:15 UTC La Liga
Celta Vigo 3:2 ValenciaValencia
22.03 15:15 UTC La Liga
Celta Vigo 3:4 AlavesAlaves
1 Wins
0 Draws
4 Losses
1.4 Scored
2.4 Conceded
3 Points
Elche
W W W W L
26.04 14:15 UTC La Liga
Elche 2:1 OviedoOviedo
22.04 17:00 UTC La Liga
Elche 3:2 Atletiko MadridAtletiko Madrid
11.04 14:15 UTC La Liga
Elche 1:0 ValenciaValencia
21.03 13:00 UTC La Liga
Elche 2:1 MallorcaMallorca
14.03 20:00 UTC La Liga
Elche 1:4 Real MadridReal Madrid
4 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
1.8 Scored
1.6 Conceded
12 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyCelta Vigo - Elche

Celta Vigo
1 matches total
Elche
Celta Vigo: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Elche: 1 (100%)
Biggest win Elche 1:2 (28.09 14:15 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 3 goals (1:2, 28.09 14:15 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0
0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

28.09 14:15 UTC La Liga
Selta
1:2
Elche
Match center
Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.
Team 1 Celta Vigo
Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket
Team 2 Elche
Celta Vigo Team comparison Elche
33 Games 33
11 Wins 9
11 Draws 11
11 Losses 13
45 Scored 44
43 Conceded 50
44 Points 38
90.67 Attacks 113.03
38.87 Dangerous attacks 48.06
0 Big chances 0
10.36 Shots on goal 10.61
4.15 Shots on target 3.94
.03 Sendoffs 0.18 Goly Ugo Alvares Khavi Rueda 1:0 14' Yago Aspas Ferran Zhutgla 2:0 30' Andre Silva 2:1 82' Borkha Iglesias Uillot Svedberg 3:1 85' Nakazaniya Gonsalo Vilyar del Frayle 28' Khavi Rueda 41' Yoel Lago 83'

Selta Elche 33 Games 33 11 Wins 9 11 Draws 11 Losses 13 45 Scored 44 43 Conceded 50 44 Points 38 90.67 Attacks 113.03 38.87 Dangerous attacks 48.06 0 Big chances 0 10.36 Shots on goal 10.61 4.15 Udary v stvor 3.94 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 4 Uglovye 3.94 1.85 Offsaydy 1.58 11.79 Foly 12.82 50.91 % vladeniya myachom 57.61 1.97 Warnings 1.97 0.03 Sendoffs 0.18 Goly Ugo Alvares Khavi Rueda 1:0 14' Yago Aspas Ferran Zhutgla 2:0 30' Andre Silva 2:1 82' Borkha Iglesias Uillot Svedberg 3:1 85' Nakazaniya Gonsalo Vilyar del Frayle 28' Khavi Rueda 41' Yoel Lago 83'