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La Liga
La Liga Spain
21.12.2025 17:30 UTC Match prediction
21.12.2025 17:30 UTC
Finished

La Liga

Spain

Elche - Rayo Vallecano

Spain Football
Elche
Elche
4 : 0
Finished
Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Elche - Rayo Vallecano December 21, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Elche.

Line favourite market consensus: Elche. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.52 / X 3.02 / 2 3.09
  • 1X2 market: Elche 37.8% / X 31.5% / Rayo Vallecano 30.8%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 61.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.2%
1 37.7%
X 31.5%
2 30.8%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.2%
Over 2.5 38.7%
Under 2.5 61.3%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 21.12.2025 17:30 UTC
Match center

Elche - Rayo Vallecano

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.10 market consensus · line only
X 3.03 market consensus · line only
1 2.52 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.54 market consensus · line only
12 1.38 market consensus · line only
1X 1.37 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.55 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.22 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 3.04 market consensus · line only
2 +1 6.05 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.46 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.55 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.78 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.99 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
2.57 38.9%
X 3.09 32.4%
3.18 31.5%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
2.54 39.4% 2.56 39.1% 2.57 38.9% 2.45 40.8% 2.50 40.0% 2.52 39.7%
X 3.05 32.8% 3.05 32.8% 3.15 31.8% 2.90 34.5% 3.00 33.3% 3.00 33.3%
2.98 33.6% 3.10 32.3% 3.23 31.0% 3.00 33.3% 3.10 32.3% 3.10 32.3%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 1.77 56.5% 1.82 55.0% 1.75 57.1% 1.80 55.6% 1.75 57.1% 1.78 56.2% 1.75 57.1% 1.74 57.5% 1.81 55.3%
yes 2.00 50.0% 2.00 50.0% 1.98 50.5% 1.91 52.4% 2.00 50.0% 1.98 50.5% 2.00 50.0% 1.98 50.5% 2.08 48.1%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 1.50 66.7% 1.57 63.7% 1.57 63.7% 1.50 66.7% 1.55 64.5% 1.57 63.7%
home_away 1.33 75.2% 1.41 70.9% 1.36 73.5% 1.36 73.5% 1.37 73.0% 1.42 70.4%
home_draw 1.36 73.5% 1.40 71.4% 1.33 75.2% 1.36 73.5% 1.39 71.9% 1.41 70.9%
Match center
Elche
L W L D D
13.12 15:15 UTC La Liga
Elche 1:3 MallorcaMallorca
07.12 13:00 UTC La Liga
Elche 3:0 GironaGirona
28.11 20:00 UTC La Liga
Elche 0:1 GetafeGetafe
23.11 20:00 UTC La Liga
Elche 2:2 Real MadridReal Madrid
07.11 20:00 UTC La Liga
Elche 1:1 Real SociedadReal Sociedad
1 Wins
2 Draws
2 Losses
1.4 Scored
1.4 Conceded
5 Points
Rayo Vallecano
D L D D D
15.12 20:00 UTC La Liga
Rayo Vallecano 0:0 Real BetisReal Betis
07.12 17:30 UTC La Liga
Rayo Vallecano 0:1 EspanyolEspanyol
01.12 20:00 UTC La Liga
Rayo Vallecano 1:1 ValenciaValencia
23.11 13:00 UTC La Liga
Rayo Vallecano 0:0 OviedoOviedo
09.11 15:15 UTC La Liga
Rayo Vallecano 0:0 Real MadridReal Madrid
0 Wins
4 Draws
1 Losses
0.2 Scored
0.4 Conceded
4 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyElche - Rayo Vallecano

Elche
0 matches total
Rayo Vallecano
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history