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La Liga
La Liga Spain
34 round 03.05.2026 14:15 UTC Match prediction
03.05.2026 14:15 UTC 34 round
Finished

La Liga

Spain

Getafe - Rayo Vallecano

Spain Football
Stadium Estadio Coliseum
Getafe
Getafe
0 : 2
Finished
Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Getafe — 43%

1 · Getafe43.1%
X · draw29.4%
2 · Rayo Vallecano27.5%

Model estimate: win Getafe 43.1%, draw 29.4%, win Rayo Vallecano 27.5%. Model favourite — Getafe.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Getafe - Rayo Vallecano May 3, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Getafe.

Strongest: Getafe - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.94 / X 3.17 / 2 4.55
  • 1X2 market: Getafe 49.1% / X 30.0% / Rayo Vallecano 20.9%
  • Glicko: Getafe 43.1% / X 29.4% / Rayo Vallecano 27.5%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 55.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.1%
1 49.1%
X 30.0%
2 20.9%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.4%
Over 2.5 35.6%
Under 2.5 64.4%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 3/5
Confidence 47.8%
Total Over 2.5
Score 1:1

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center
Stadium Koliseum (Khetafe, Spain), 7 693 zritelya (44% pri vmestimosti 17 393)
Referee Migel Sesma Espinosa
Start 03.05.2026 14:15 UTC
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Getafe 43%
💹 Market Getafe 4908%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Getafe - Rayo Vallecano

Itogovyy protokol and rezultaty vstrechi Khetafe - Rayo Valekano, 3 maya 2026. Highlights and statistika matches, tochnyy schet. Championship Spain po futbolu (La Liga) 2025-2026, 34 round. Khetafe - Rayo Valekano, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matches.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 2 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

7/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 0:2
Events 20
Statistics 24
Lineups 45
min Event Player Team
29' 29' Yellow Card | Alemao Alemão Rayo Vallecano
38' 38' Normal Goal Rayo Vallecano
44' 44' Yellow Card | D. Duarte D. Duarte Getafe
46' 46' Substitution 1 | Davinchi | assist/sub out: A. Kamara Davinchi Getafe
46' 46' Substitution 2 | A. Liso | assist/sub out: D. Rico A. Liso Getafe
46' 46' Substitution 3 | Kiko Femenia | assist/sub out: Alex Sancris Kiko Femenia Getafe
46' 46' Yellow Card | L. Vazquez L. Vazquez Getafe
50' 50' Yellow Card | P. Ciss P. Ciss Rayo Vallecano
Metric Getafe Rayo Vallecano SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.38 0.83 final
Zablokirovannye udary 2 1 final
Shots off target 8 3 final
Shots on target 3 6 final
Udary vsego 13 10 final
Fouls soversheno 7 22 final
Zheltye kartochki 3 5 final
Offsides 1 2 final
Getafe #8 M. Arambarri, #10 M. Satriano, #13 D. Soria, #26 Davinchi, #5 L. Milla, #19 L. Vazquez, #21 J. Iglesias, #22 D. Duarte, #23 A. Liso, #3 A. Abqar, #17 Kiko Femenia
Rayo Vallecano #9 Alemão, #13 A. Batalla, #15 Gumbau, #22 A. Espino, #33 J. Vertrouwd, #6 P. Ciss, #10 Sergio Camello, #32 N. Mendy, #19 Jorge de Frutos, #24 F. Lejeune, #20 I. Balliu
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Batalla Rayo Vallecano football.player.assists 0
A. Batalla Rayo Vallecano Edinoborstva vyigrano 2
A. Batalla Rayo Vallecano Seyvy 0
A. Batalla Rayo Vallecano football.player.minutes_played 90
A. Batalla Rayo Vallecano Klyuchevye pasy 39
A. Batalla Rayo Vallecano Reyting 3
A. Batalla Rayo Vallecano Reyting (staryy) 7.2
A. Batalla Rayo Vallecano Otbory vsego 17
A. Batalla Rayo Vallecano Yellow cards 1
A. Espino Rayo Vallecano football.player.assists 0
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Getafe 49.6% 43.1% market and model agree
Draw 29.0% 29.4% draw risk
Rayo Vallecano 21.4% 27.5%
xG - 1.21 : 0.90
Total 2.5 Over 55.7% - Under 44.3%
Model check - - Difference 0.07
Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.07

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 43.1% / 29.4% / 27.5% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,524 / 1,499 Getafe / Rayo Vallecano
RD 72 / 72 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 4.55 market consensus · no value · model 27.5%
X 3.17 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.94 market consensus · no value · model 43.1%
Double chance
X2 1.86 market consensus · value +5.9% · model 56.9%
12 1.33 market consensus · no value · model 70.6%
1X 1.20 market consensus · no value · model 72.5%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.89 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.40 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 4.11 market consensus · line only
2 +1 9.60 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.64 market consensus · value +47.0% · model 55.7%
Under 2.5 1.46 market consensus · no value · model 44.3%
Both teams to score
No 1.58 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.26 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor
1.91 52.4% 1.99 50.3% 1.91 52.4% 1.93 51.8% 1.91 52.4% 1.91 52.4%
X 3.10 32.3% 3.29 30.4% 3.20 31.3% 3.15 31.8% 3.00 33.3% 3.20 31.3%
4.40 22.7% 4.78 20.9% 4.50 22.2% 4.65 21.5% 4.50 22.2% 4.60 21.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet William Hill
no 1.60 62.5% 1.58 63.3% 1.57 63.7% 1.60 62.5% 1.57 63.7% 1.55 64.5% 1.57 63.7% 1.61 62.1% 1.60 62.5%
yes 2.25 44.4% 2.25 44.4% 2.25 44.4% 2.27 44.1% 2.30 43.5% 2.25 44.4% 2.25 44.4% 2.20 45.5% 2.30 43.5%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor
draw_away 1.85 54.1% 1.91 52.4% 1.80 55.6% 1.90 52.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6%
home_away 1.30 76.9% 1.38 72.5% 1.33 75.2% 1.34 74.6% 1.30 76.9% 1.30 76.9%
home_draw 1.20 83.3% 1.23 81.3% 1.22 82.0% 1.22 82.0% 1.17 85.5% 1.20 83.3%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.11 90.1% 1.08 92.6%
Over 0.75 — 1.12 89.3%
Over 1.0 — 1.15 87.0%
Over 1.25 — 1.38 72.5%
Over 1.5 1.55 64.5% 1.61 62.1%
Over 1.75 — 1.78 56.2%
Over 2.0 — 1.94 51.6%
Over 2.25 — 2.24 44.6%
Over 2.5 2.65 37.7% —
Over 3.5 5.25 19.1% —
Over 4.5 10.00 10.0% —
Under 0.5 6.25 16.0% —
Under 1.5 2.40 41.7% —
Under 2.5 1.48 67.6% —
Under 3.5 1.15 87.0% —
Under 4.5 1.04 96.2% —
Match center
Getafe
Founded 1983
Rayo Vallecano
Founded 1924
Match center
Getafe
DD D. Dakonam Yellow Cards
J Juanmi Injury
Rayo Vallecano
LF Luiz Felipe Injury
OV O. Valentin Face Injury
Khuanmi Travmirovannye Luis Felipe Alvaro Garsiya Diskvalifitsirovannye Said Romero Mario Martin Dzhene CHAMP Isi Palason CHAMP
Getafe Founded: 1983
Rayo Vallecano Founded: 1924
Match center
Getafe
L W L W W
25.04 14:15 UTC La Liga
Getafe 0:2 BarselonaBarselona
22.04 18:00 UTC La Liga
Getafe 1:0 Real SociedadReal Sociedad
13.04 19:00 UTC La Liga
Getafe 0:1 LevanteLevante
05.04 12:00 UTC La Liga
Getafe 2:0 Athletic ClubAthletic Club
21.03 15:15 UTC La Liga
Getafe 2:1 EspanyolEspanyol
3 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
1.0 Scored
0.8 Conceded
9 Points
Rayo Vallecano
D W L L D
26.04 12:00 UTC La Liga
Rayo Vallecano 3:3 Real SociedadReal Sociedad
23.04 18:00 UTC La Liga
Rayo Vallecano 1:0 EspanyolEspanyol
12.04 14:15 UTC La Liga
Rayo Vallecano 0:3 MallorcaMallorca
22.03 13:00 UTC La Liga
Rayo Vallecano 0:1 BarselonaBarselona
16.03 20:00 UTC La Liga
Rayo Vallecano 1:1 LevanteLevante
1 Wins
2 Draws
2 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.6 Conceded
5 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyGetafe - Rayo Vallecano

Getafe
2 matches total
Rayo Vallecano
Getafe: 0 (0%)
Draws:1 (50%)
Rayo Vallecano: 1 (50%)
Biggest win Rayo Vallecano 0:1 (02.05 19:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 2 goals (1:1, 02.01 20:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw 1:1 (02.01 20:00 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 2
2 Goals conceded 1

Match history

02.01 20:00 UTC La Liga
Getafe
1:1
Rayo Vallecano
02.05 19:00 UTC La Liga
Getafe
0:1
Rayo Vallecano
Match center
Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.
Team 1 Getafe
Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket
Team 2 Rayo Vallecano
Getafe Team comparison Rayo Vallecano
33 Games 33
13 Wins 9
5 Draws 12
15 Losses 12
28 Scored 33
34 Conceded 41
44 Points 39
91.03 Attacks 94.59
45.37 Dangerous attacks 47.09
0 Big chances 0
8.79 Shots on goal 13.76
2.67 Shots on target 4.7
iya 2.67 0.21 Sendoffs 0.27 Goly Serkhio Kamelo 0:1 38' Randi Ntekya Kherard Gumbau 0:2 73' Nezabitye penalti Mauro Arambarri 64' Nakazaniya Aleshandre Zhuravski 29' Domingush Duarte 44' Luis Vaskes 46' Pate Siss 50' Abdelkadir Abkar 55' Augusto Batalya 61' Nobel Mendi 85' Randi Ntekya 90+1'

Khetafe Rayo Valekano 33 Games 33 13 Wins 9 5 Draws 12 15 Losses 12 28 Scored 33 34 Conceded 41 44 Points 39 91.03 Attacks 94.59 45.37 Dangerous attacks 47.09 0 Big chances 0 8.79 Shots on goal 13.76 2.67 Udary v stvor 4.7 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 4.39 Uglovye 6.03 2.61 Offsaydy 2.09 15.33 Foly 13.18 38.52 % vladeniya myachom 53.82 2.91 Warnings 2.67 0.21 Sendoffs 0.27 Goly Serkhio Kamelo 0:1 38' Randi Ntekya Kherard Gumbau 0:2 73' Nezabitye penalti Mauro Arambarri 64' Nakazaniya Aleshandre Zhuravski 29' Domingush Duarte 44' Luis Vaskes 46' Pate Siss 50' Abdelkadir Abkar 55' Augusto Batalya 61' Nobel Mendi 85' Randi Ntekya 90+1'