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La Liga Spain

21.09.2025 12:00 UTC Match prediction

21.09.2025 12:00 UTC

Finished

La Liga

Rayo Vallecano - Celta Vigo

Spain Football

Rayo Vallecano

1 : 1

Finished

Celta Vigo

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Rayo Vallecano - Celta Vigo September 21, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Rayo Vallecano.

Line favourite market consensus: Rayo Vallecano. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.23 / X 3.27 / 2 3.37
1X2 market: Rayo Vallecano 42.6% / X 29.1% / Celta Vigo 28.3%
Total 2.5: over probability 53.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.1%

1 42.7%

X 29.1%

2 28.2%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.7%

Over 2.5 46.4%

Under 2.5 53.6%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Start 21.09.2025 12:00 UTC

Match center

Rayo Vallecano - Celta Vigo

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 3.38 market consensus · line only

X 3.28 market consensus · line only

1 2.23 market consensus · line only

Double chance

X2 1.66 market consensus · line only

12 1.34 market consensus · line only

1X 1.34 market consensus · line only

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.71 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.31 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 3.33 market consensus · line only

2 +1 5.96 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 2.06 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 1.78 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 1.97 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.78 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome	SStats Consensus
	2.23 44.8%
X	3.40 29.4%
	3.51 28.5%

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Betano	Betfair
	2.22 45.1%	2.20 45.5%	2.32 43.1%	2.25 44.4%	2.20 45.5%	2.20 45.5%
X	3.25 30.8%	3.35 29.9%	3.38 29.6%	3.10 32.3%	3.30 30.3%	3.20 31.3%
	3.30 30.3%	3.50 28.6%	3.46 28.9%	3.20 31.3%	3.40 29.4%	3.40 29.4%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Betano	Betfair	Marathonbet	Pinnacle	Superbet
no	1.93 51.8%	2.02 49.5%	1.95 51.3%	2.00 50.0%	1.93 51.8%	2.00 50.0%	1.93 51.8%	2.05 48.8%	1.95 51.3%
yes	1.77 56.5%	1.80 55.6%	1.78 56.2%	1.75 57.1%	1.80 55.6%	1.75 57.1%	1.78 56.2%	1.83 54.6%	1.83 54.6%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Betano	Marathonbet	Pinnacle
draw_away	1.65 60.6%	1.68 59.5%	1.57 63.7%	1.70 58.8%	1.67 59.9%	1.72 58.1%
home_away	1.28 78.1%	1.37 73.0%	1.33 75.2%	1.32 75.8%	1.36 73.5%	1.36 73.5%
home_draw	1.33 75.2%	1.36 73.5%	1.36 73.5%	1.34 74.6%	1.35 74.1%	1.34 74.6%

Match center

Rayo Vallecano

L D L W D

14.09 16:30 UTC La Liga

Rayo Vallecano 0:2 Osasuna

31.08 19:30 UTC La Liga

Rayo Vallecano 1:1 Barselona

25.08 17:30 UTC La Liga

Rayo Vallecano 0:1 Athletic Club

15.08 17:00 UTC La Liga

Rayo Vallecano 3:1 Girona

24.05 19:00 UTC La Liga

Rayo Vallecano 0:0 Mallorca

1 Wins

2 Draws

2 Losses

0.8 Scored

1.0 Conceded

5 Points

Celta Vigo

D D D D L

14.09 12:00 UTC La Liga

Celta Vigo 1:1 Girona

31.08 15:00 UTC La Liga

Celta Vigo 1:1 Villarreal

27.08 19:00 UTC La Liga

Celta Vigo 1:1 Real Betis

23.08 15:00 UTC La Liga

Celta Vigo 1:1 Mallorca

17.08 15:00 UTC La Liga

Celta Vigo 0:2 Getafe

0 Wins

4 Draws

1 Losses

0.8 Scored

1.2 Conceded

4 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyRayo Vallecano - Celta Vigo

Rayo Vallecano

1 matches total

Celta Vigo

Rayo Vallecano: 1 (100%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Celta Vigo: 0 (0%)

Biggest win Rayo Vallecano 2:1 (18.05 17:00 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 3 goals (2:1, 18.05 17:00 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

2 Goals scored 1

1 Goals conceded 2

Match history

18.05 17:00 UTC

La Liga

Rayo Vallecano

2:1

Selta