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La Liga
La Liga Spain
19.08.2025 19:00 UTC Match prediction
19.08.2025 19:00 UTC
Finished

La Liga

Spain

Real Madrid - Osasuna

Spain Football
Real Madrid
Real Madrid
1 : 0
Finished
Osasuna
Osasuna

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Real Madrid - Osasuna August 19, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Real Madrid.

Line favourite Fonbet: Real Madrid. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.25 / X 7.20 / 2 12.50
  • 1X2 market: Real Madrid 78.5% / X 13.6% / Osasuna 7.9%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 65.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 1.9%
1 78.5%
X 13.6%
2 7.9%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.3%
Over 2.5 65.5%
Under 2.5 34.5%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 19.08.2025 19:00 UTC
Match center

Real Madrid - Osasuna

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
X 7.20 Fonbet · line only
1 1.25 Fonbet · line only
Double chance
X2 3.95 Fonbet · line only
12 1.09 Fonbet · line only
1X 1.03 Fonbet · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 4.18 market consensus · line only
2 -1 3.40 Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5 9.70 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.22 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.45 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 2.75 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.80 Fonbet · line only
Yes 2.00 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
1.23 81.3%
X 7.22 13.9%
12.03 8.3%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
1.22 82.0% 1.22 82.0% 1.24 80.7% 1.22 82.0% 1.22 82.0% 1.25 80.0%
X 6.40 15.6% 6.90 14.5% 7.36 13.6% 6.50 15.4% 7.00 14.3% 6.70 14.9%
12.00 8.3% 12.50 8.0% 13.40 7.5% 11.00 9.1% 11.00 9.1% 12.50 8.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Betway Bwin
no 1.73 57.8% 1.85 54.1% 1.78 56.2% 1.83 54.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.83 54.6% 1.83 54.6% 1.77 56.5%
yes 2.00 50.0% 1.96 51.0% 1.95 51.3% 1.91 52.4% 1.95 51.3% 1.93 51.8% 1.91 52.4% 1.95 51.3% 1.93 51.8%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betway
draw_away 4.00 25.0% 4.52 22.1% 4.20 23.8% 4.00 25.0% 4.20 23.8% 4.20 23.8%
home_away 1.10 90.9% 1.12 89.3% 1.11 90.1% 1.10 90.9% 1.12 89.3% 1.11 90.1%
home_draw 1.04 96.2% 1.04 96.2% 1.05 95.2% 1.05 95.2% 1.06 94.3% 1.04 96.2%
Match center
Real Madrid
W W W L W
24.05 14:15 UTC La Liga
Real Madrid 2:0 Real SociedadReal Sociedad
18.05 17:00 UTC La Liga
Real Madrid 2:0 SevillaSevilla
14.05 19:30 UTC La Liga
Real Madrid 2:1 MallorcaMallorca
11.05 14:15 UTC La Liga
Real Madrid 3:4 BarselonaBarselona
04.05 12:00 UTC La Liga
Real Madrid 3:2 SeltaSelta
4 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
2.4 Scored
1.4 Conceded
12 Points
Osasuna
D W W D L
24.05 19:00 UTC La Liga
Osasuna 1:1 AlavesAlaves
18.05 17:00 UTC La Liga
Osasuna 2:0 EspanyolEspanyol
15.05 17:00 UTC La Liga
Osasuna 2:0 Atletiko MadridAtletiko Madrid
11.05 19:00 UTC La Liga
Osasuna 1:1 Real BetisReal Betis
03.05 14:15 UTC La Liga
Osasuna 2:4 VillarrealVillarreal
2 Wins
2 Draws
1 Losses
1.6 Scored
1.2 Conceded
8 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyReal Madrid - Osasuna

Real Madrid
0 matches total
Osasuna
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history