Free access Sign in to unlock the full prediction Create a free account to see the full AI breakdown, probabilities, risks and history.

La Liga Spain

01.02.2026 13:00 UTC Match prediction

01.02.2026 13:00 UTC

Finished

La Liga

Real Madrid - Rayo Vallecano

Spain Football

Real Madrid

2 : 1

Finished

Rayo Vallecano

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Real Madrid - Rayo Vallecano February 1, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Real Madrid.

Line favourite market consensus: Real Madrid. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.25 / X 6.54 / 2 10.69
1X2 market: Real Madrid 76.3% / X 14.6% / Rayo Vallecano 9.0%
Total 2.5: over probability 69.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.6%

1 76.4%

X 14.6%

2 8.9%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.8%

Over 2.5 69.4%

Under 2.5 30.6%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.

Match center

Start 01.02.2026 13:00 UTC

Match center

Real Madrid - Rayo Vallecano

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Betting snapshot

1X2

X 6.56 market consensus · line only

1 1.25 market consensus · line only

2 9.64 market consensus · line only

Double chance

X2 4.00 market consensus · line only

12 1.12 market consensus · line only

1X 1.06 market consensus · line only

Handicap

2 -0.5 3.99 market consensus · line only

2 -1 3.13 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 7.95 market consensus · line only

1 -0.5 1.24 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.35 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 3.06 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 2.05 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.73 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome	SStats Consensus
	1.25 80.0%
X	7.00 14.3%
	11.75 8.5%

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
	1.26 79.4%	1.26 79.4%	1.30 76.9%	1.25 80.0%	1.20 83.3%	1.28 78.1%
X	5.90 17.0%	6.70 14.9%	6.65 15.0%	6.00 16.7%	7.00 14.3%	6.40 15.6%
	9.20 10.9%	10.00 10.0%	10.40 9.6%	9.50 10.5%	13.00 7.7%	11.50 8.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	Marathonbet	Pinnacle
no	2.10 47.6%	2.06 48.5%	2.07 48.3%	2.05 48.8%	2.10 47.6%	2.02 49.5%	2.00 50.0%	2.04 49.0%	2.09 47.9%
yes	1.70 58.8%	1.77 56.5%	1.69 59.2%	1.67 59.9%	1.67 59.9%	1.75 57.1%	1.75 57.1%	1.69 59.2%	1.79 55.9%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Marathonbet
draw_away	3.65 27.4%	3.88 25.8%	3.80 26.3%	4.33 23.1%	3.95 25.3%	3.92 25.5%
home_away	1.11 90.1%	1.14 87.7%	1.13 88.5%	1.10 90.9%	1.13 88.5%	1.13 88.5%
home_draw	1.05 95.2%	1.06 94.3%	1.06 94.3%	1.04 96.2%	1.07 93.5%	1.07 93.5%