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La Liga Spain

08.03.2026 20:00 UTC Match prediction

08.03.2026 20:00 UTC

Finished

La Liga

Valencia - Alaves

Spain Football

Valencia

3 : 2

Finished

Alaves

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Valencia - Alaves March 8, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Valencia.

Line favourite market consensus: Valencia. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.17 / X 3.07 / 2 3.79
1X2 market: Valencia 43.8% / X 31.0% / Alaves 25.2%
Total 2.5: over probability 61.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.0%

1 43.9%

X 31.0%

2 25.1%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.3%

Over 2.5 38.3%

Under 2.5 61.7%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Start 08.03.2026 20:00 UTC

Match center

Valencia - Alaves

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 2 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 3.80 market consensus · line only

X 3.07 market consensus · line only

1 2.17 market consensus · line only

Double chance

X2 1.70 market consensus · line only

12 1.37 market consensus · line only

1X 1.27 market consensus · line only

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.73 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.30 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 3.63 market consensus · line only

2 +1 7.90 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 2.48 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 1.54 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 1.72 market consensus · line only

Yes 2.06 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome	SStats Consensus
	2.19 45.7%
X	3.14 31.9%
	3.94 25.4%

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
	2.16 46.3%	2.13 47.0%	2.24 44.6%	2.15 46.5%	2.20 45.5%	2.18 45.9%
X	3.05 32.8%	3.10 32.3%	3.15 31.8%	3.00 33.3%	3.00 33.3%	3.10 32.3%
	3.60 27.8%	4.00 25.0%	3.98 25.1%	3.60 27.8%	3.75 26.7%	3.75 26.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	Marathonbet	Pinnacle
no	1.73 57.8%	1.75 57.1%	1.70 58.8%	1.73 57.8%	1.70 58.8%	1.70 58.8%	1.73 57.8%	1.68 59.5%	1.75 57.1%
yes	2.05 48.8%	2.10 47.6%	2.06 48.5%	2.00 50.0%	2.05 48.8%	2.07 48.3%	2.05 48.8%	2.06 48.5%	2.17 46.1%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.65 60.6%	1.73 57.8%	1.67 59.9%	1.67 59.9%	1.72 58.1%	1.62 61.7%
home_away	1.30 76.9%	1.41 70.9%	1.36 73.5%	1.36 73.5%	1.35 74.1%	1.30 76.9%
home_draw	1.28 78.1%	1.29 77.5%	1.25 80.0%	1.25 80.0%	1.29 77.5%	1.25 80.0%

Match center

Valencia

W L W L L

01.03 15:15 UTC La Liga

Valencia 1:0 Osasuna

22.02 20:00 UTC La Liga

Valencia 1:2 Villarreal

15.02 17:30 UTC La Liga

Valencia 2:0 Levante

08.02 20:00 UTC La Liga

Valencia 0:2 Real Madrid

01.02 15:15 UTC La Liga

Valencia 1:2 Real Betis

2 Wins

0 Draws

3 Losses

1.0 Scored

1.2 Conceded

6 Points

Alaves

L D D L W

27.02 20:00 UTC La Liga

Alaves 0:2 Levante

23.02 20:00 UTC La Liga

Alaves 2:2 Girona

14.02 17:30 UTC La Liga

Alaves 1:1 Sevilla

08.02 13:00 UTC La Liga

Alaves 0:2 Getafe

30.01 20:00 UTC La Liga

Alaves 2:1 Espanyol

1 Wins

2 Draws

2 Losses

1.0 Scored

1.6 Conceded

5 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyValencia - Alaves

Valencia

2 matches total

Alaves

Valencia: 0 (0%)

Draws:1 (50%)

Alaves: 1 (50%)

Biggest win Alaves 0:1 (14.05 17:00 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 1 goals (0:1, 14.05 17:00 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw 0:0 (20.10 19:00 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 1

1 Goals conceded 0

Match history

20.10 19:00 UTC

La Liga

Valencia

0:0

Alaves

14.05 17:00 UTC

La Liga

Valencia

0:1

Alaves