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La Liga Spain

20.09.2025 16:30 UTC Match prediction

20.09.2025 16:30 UTC

Finished

La Liga

Villarreal - Osasuna

Spain Football

Villarreal

2 : 1

Finished

Osasuna

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Villarreal - Osasuna September 20, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Villarreal.

Line favourite market consensus: Villarreal. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.70 / X 3.80 / 2 5.33
1X2 market: Villarreal 56.6% / X 25.3% / Osasuna 18.1%
Total 2.5: over probability 52.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 3.9%

1 56.6%

X 25.3%

2 18.1%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 2.6%

Over 2.5 47.3%

Under 2.5 52.7%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Start 20.09.2025 16:30 UTC

Match center

Villarreal - Osasuna

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 5.35 market consensus · line only

X 3.80 market consensus · line only

1 1.70 market consensus · line only

Double chance

X2 2.21 market consensus · line only

12 1.29 market consensus · line only

1X 1.18 market consensus · line only

Handicap

2 -0.5 2.25 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.71 market consensus · line only

1 -0.5 1.70 market consensus · line only

1 -1 2.20 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 2.06 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 1.85 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 1.82 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.95 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome	SStats Consensus
	1.71 58.5%
X	3.79 26.4%
	5.43 18.4%

Match Winner

Outcome	188Bet	1xBet	Marathonbet	Pinnacle	SStats Consensus	William Hill
	1.69 59.2%	1.74 57.5%	1.70 58.8%	1.71 58.5%	1.71 58.5%	1.65 60.6%
X	3.85 26.0%	3.86 25.9%	3.76 26.6%	3.79 26.4%	3.79 26.4%	3.75 26.7%
	5.30 18.9%	5.48 18.3%	5.35 18.7%	5.43 18.4%	5.43 18.4%	5.00 20.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome	188Bet	1xBet	Marathonbet	Pinnacle	William Hill
no	1.83 54.6%	1.80 55.6%	1.79 55.9%	1.85 54.1%	1.85 54.1%
yes	1.99 50.3%	1.92 52.1%	1.92 52.1%	2.03 49.3%	1.91 52.4%

Double chance

Outcome	1xBet	Marathonbet	Pinnacle	SStats Consensus	William Hill
draw_away	2.21 45.3%	2.22 45.1%	2.20 45.5%	2.20 45.5%	2.20 45.5%
home_away	1.30 76.9%	1.30 76.9%	1.31 76.3%	1.31 76.3%	1.25 80.0%
home_draw	1.19 84.0%	1.17 85.5%	1.19 84.0%	1.19 84.0%	1.17 85.5%