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Ligue 1
Ligue 1 France
04.10.2025 19:05 UTC Match prediction
04.10.2025 19:05 UTC
Finished

Ligue 1

France

Auxerre - Lens

France Football
Auxerre
Auxerre
1 : 2
Finished
Lens
Lens

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Auxerre - Lens October 4, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Lens.

Line favourite market consensus: Lens. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.58 / X 3.60 / 2 2.02
  • 1X2 market: Auxerre 26.6% / X 26.4% / Lens 47.0%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 52.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.2%
1 26.5%
X 26.4%
2 47.1%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.4%
Over 2.5 52.3%
Under 2.5 47.7%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 04.10.2025 19:05 UTC
Match center

Auxerre - Lens

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.03 market consensus · line only
X 3.61 market consensus · line only
1 3.59 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.29 market consensus · line only
12 1.28 market consensus · line only
1X 1.81 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.32 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.08 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.04 market consensus · line only
2 +1 2.83 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.83 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.01 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.11 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.69 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
3.62 27.6%
X 3.71 27.0%
2.07 48.3%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
3.55 28.2% 3.55 28.2% 3.74 26.7% 3.60 27.8% 3.40 29.4% 3.70 27.0%
X 3.55 28.2% 3.65 27.4% 3.74 26.7% 3.50 28.6% 3.75 26.7% 3.55 28.2%
2.02 49.5% 2.03 49.3% 2.08 48.1% 1.95 51.3% 2.00 50.0% 2.02 49.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 2.10 47.6% 2.16 46.3% 2.08 48.1% 2.10 47.6% 2.00 50.0% 2.07 48.3% 2.15 46.5% 2.06 48.5% 2.26 44.3%
yes 1.67 59.9% 1.68 59.5% 1.68 59.5% 1.70 58.8% 1.75 57.1% 1.70 58.8% 1.67 59.9% 1.68 59.5% 1.69 59.2%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 1.28 78.1% 1.32 75.8% 1.25 80.0% 1.30 76.9% 1.30 76.9% 1.32 75.8%
home_away 1.22 82.0% 1.32 75.8% 1.25 80.0% 1.25 80.0% 1.28 78.1% 1.32 75.8%
home_draw 1.77 56.5% 1.83 54.6% 1.85 54.1% 1.80 55.6% 1.83 54.6% 1.83 54.6%
Match center
Auxerre
L W L L L
27.09 19:05 UTC Ligue 1
Auxerre 0:2 Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
21.09 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Auxerre 1:0 ToulouseToulouse
13.09 19:05 UTC Ligue 1
Auxerre 1:2 MonacoMonaco
30.08 17:00 UTC Ligue 1
Auxerre 0:1 NantesNantes
23.08 17:00 UTC Ligue 1
Auxerre 1:3 NiceNice
1 Wins
0 Draws
4 Losses
0.6 Scored
1.6 Conceded
3 Points
Lens
D W L W W
28.09 18:45 UTC Ligue 1
Lens 0:0 RennesRennes
20.09 19:05 UTC Ligue 1
Lens 3:0 LilleLille
14.09 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Lens 0:2 Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
29.08 18:45 UTC Ligue 1
Lens 3:1 Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29
24.08 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Lens 2:1 Le HavreLe Havre
3 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
1.6 Scored
0.8 Conceded
10 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyAuxerre - Lens

Auxerre
1 matches total
Lens
Auxerre: 1 (100%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Lens: 0 (0%)
Biggest win Auxerre 4:0 (27.04 15:15 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 4 goals (4:0, 27.04 15:15 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

4 Goals scored 0
0 Goals conceded 4

Match history

27.04 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Auxerre
4:0
Lens