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Ligue 1
Ligue 1 France
07.12.2025 16:15 UTC Match prediction
07.12.2025 16:15 UTC
Finished

Ligue 1

France

Auxerre - Metz

France Football
Auxerre
Auxerre
3 : 1
Finished
Metz
Metz

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Auxerre - Metz December 7, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Auxerre.

Line favourite market consensus: Auxerre. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.99 / X 3.48 / 2 3.80
  • 1X2 market: Auxerre 47.7% / X 27.3% / Metz 25.0%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 51.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.3%
1 47.7%
X 27.3%
2 25.0%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.5%
Over 2.5 48.8%
Under 2.5 51.2%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 07.12.2025 16:15 UTC
Match center

Auxerre - Metz

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.80 market consensus · line only
X 3.49 market consensus · line only
1 2.00 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.83 market consensus · line only
12 1.30 market consensus · line only
1X 1.27 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.86 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.40 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 3.69 market consensus · line only
2 +1 7.65 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.96 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.87 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.98 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.77 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
2.05 48.8%
X 3.55 28.2%
3.86 25.9%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
1.95 51.3% 2.03 49.3% 2.06 48.5% 1.95 51.3% 2.00 50.0% 2.02 49.5%
X 3.45 29.0% 3.45 29.0% 3.64 27.5% 3.40 29.4% 3.50 28.6% 3.45 29.0%
3.95 25.3% 3.70 27.0% 3.90 25.6% 3.70 27.0% 3.70 27.0% 3.75 26.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 2.00 50.0% 2.03 49.3% 1.98 50.5% 1.95 51.3% 1.95 51.3% 2.02 49.5% 1.95 51.3% 1.95 51.3% 2.09 47.9%
yes 1.73 57.8% 1.76 56.8% 1.75 57.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.80 55.6% 1.75 57.1% 1.80 55.6% 1.76 56.8% 1.82 55.0%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 1.83 54.6% 1.85 54.1% 1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.82 55.0% 1.87 53.5%
home_away 1.25 80.0% 1.33 75.2% 1.30 76.9% 1.28 78.1% 1.30 76.9% 1.33 75.2%
home_draw 1.25 80.0% 1.30 76.9% 1.25 80.0% 1.25 80.0% 1.29 77.5% 1.30 76.9%
Match center
Auxerre
D D L L L
29.11 18:00 UTC Ligue 1
Auxerre 1:1 Paris FCParis FC
23.11 14:00 UTC Ligue 1
Auxerre 0:0 LionLion
09.11 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Auxerre 0:2 AngersAngers
01.11 20:05 UTC Ligue 1
Auxerre 0:1 MarseilleMarseille
29.10 20:05 UTC Ligue 1
Auxerre 0:3 StrasbourgStrasbourg
0 Wins
2 Draws
3 Losses
0.2 Scored
1.4 Conceded
2 Points
Metz
L L W W W
28.11 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 0:1 RennesRennes
23.11 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 2:3 Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29
09.11 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 2:1 NiceNice
02.11 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 2:0 NantesNantes
29.10 18:00 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 2:0 LensLens
3 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
1.6 Scored
1.0 Conceded
9 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyAuxerre - Metz

Auxerre
0 matches total
Metz
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history