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Ligue 1
Ligue 1 France
21.09.2025 15:15 UTC Match prediction
21.09.2025 15:15 UTC
Finished

Ligue 1

France

Auxerre - Toulouse

France Football
Auxerre
Auxerre
1 : 0
Finished
Toulouse
Toulouse

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Auxerre - Toulouse September 21, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Toulouse.

Line favourite market consensus: Toulouse. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.10 / X 3.29 / 2 2.34
  • 1X2 market: Auxerre 30.7% / X 28.9% / Toulouse 40.5%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 53.1%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.4%
1 30.6%
X 28.8%
2 40.6%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.6%
Over 2.5 46.9%
Under 2.5 53.1%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 21.09.2025 15:15 UTC
Match center

Auxerre - Toulouse

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.35 market consensus · line only
X 3.29 market consensus · line only
1 3.11 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.37 market consensus · line only
12 1.33 market consensus · line only
1X 1.60 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.40 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.13 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.34 market consensus · line only
2 +1 3.76 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.04 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.80 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.99 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.77 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
3.26 30.7%
X 3.30 30.3%
2.39 41.8%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Betano Betfair
3.10 32.3% 3.15 31.8% 3.18 31.5% 2.90 34.5% 3.15 31.8% 3.10 32.3%
X 3.25 30.8% 3.25 30.8% 3.54 28.3% 3.30 30.3% 3.20 31.3% 3.10 32.3%
2.35 42.6% 2.33 42.9% 2.39 41.8% 2.30 43.5% 2.37 42.2% 2.30 43.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle Superbet
no 1.95 51.3% 2.05 48.8% 1.96 51.0% 2.00 50.0% 2.02 49.5% 2.00 50.0% 1.94 51.6% 2.10 47.6% 2.00 50.0%
yes 1.75 57.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.77 56.5% 1.75 57.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.77 56.5% 1.79 55.9% 1.80 55.6%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Betano Marathonbet Pinnacle
draw_away 1.36 73.5% 1.41 70.9% 1.36 73.5% 1.38 72.5% 1.40 71.4% 1.38 72.5%
home_away 1.30 76.9% 1.34 74.6% 1.33 75.2% 1.33 75.2% 1.33 75.2% 1.37 73.0%
home_draw 1.57 63.7% 1.65 60.6% 1.57 63.7% 1.62 61.7% 1.64 61.0% 1.63 61.4%
Match center
Auxerre
L L L W L
13.09 19:05 UTC Ligue 1
Auxerre 1:2 MonacoMonaco
30.08 17:00 UTC Ligue 1
Auxerre 0:1 NantesNantes
23.08 17:00 UTC Ligue 1
Auxerre 1:3 NiceNice
17.08 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Auxerre 1:0 LorientLorient
17.05 19:00 UTC Ligue 1
Auxerre 1:3 Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
1 Wins
0 Draws
4 Losses
0.8 Scored
1.8 Conceded
3 Points
Toulouse
L L W W W
14.09 13:00 UTC Ligue 1
Toulouse 1:2 LilleLille
30.08 19:05 UTC Ligue 1
Toulouse 3:6 Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
24.08 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Toulouse 2:0 Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29
16.08 19:05 UTC Ligue 1
Toulouse 1:0 NiceNice
17.05 19:00 UTC Ligue 1
Toulouse 3:2 Saint EtienneSaint Etienne
3 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
2.0 Scored
2.0 Conceded
9 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyAuxerre - Toulouse

Auxerre
0 matches total
Toulouse
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history