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Ligue 1
Ligue 1 France
25.10.2025 19:05 UTC Match prediction
25.10.2025 19:05 UTC
Finished

Ligue 1

France

Lens - Marseille

France Football
Lens
Lens
2 : 1
Finished
Marseille
Marseille

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Lens - Marseille October 25, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Marseille.

Line favourite market consensus: Marseille. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.71 / X 3.51 / 2 2.53
  • 1X2 market: Lens 35.2% / X 27.2% / Marseille 37.7%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 55.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.9%
1 35.2%
X 27.2%
2 37.7%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.8%
Over 2.5 55.2%
Under 2.5 44.8%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 25.10.2025 19:05 UTC
Match center

Lens - Marseille

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.53 market consensus · line only
X 3.51 market consensus · line only
1 2.71 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.47 market consensus · line only
12 1.30 market consensus · line only
1X 1.52 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.49 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.20 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.45 market consensus · line only
2 +1 4.03 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.73 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.13 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.31 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.57 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
2.75 36.4%
X 3.52 28.4%
2.63 38.0%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
2.70 37.0% 2.70 37.0% 2.76 36.2% 2.63 38.0% 2.62 38.2% 2.65 37.7%
X 3.40 29.4% 3.50 28.6% 3.66 27.3% 3.40 29.4% 3.60 27.8% 3.55 28.2%
2.52 39.7% 2.54 39.4% 2.64 37.9% 2.50 40.0% 2.55 39.2% 2.55 39.2%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 2.30 43.5% 2.36 42.4% 2.30 43.5% 2.25 44.4% 2.25 44.4% 2.30 43.5% 2.38 42.0% 2.27 44.1% 2.47 40.5%
yes 1.55 64.5% 1.57 63.7% 1.56 64.1% 1.60 62.5% 1.57 63.7% 1.57 63.7% 1.53 65.4% 1.56 64.1% 1.59 62.9%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 1.45 69.0% 1.51 66.2% 1.44 69.4% 1.44 69.4% 1.50 66.7% 1.51 66.2%
home_away 1.25 80.0% 1.33 75.2% 1.30 76.9% 1.28 78.1% 1.29 77.5% 1.33 75.2%
home_draw 1.50 66.7% 1.55 64.5% 1.50 66.7% 1.50 66.7% 1.55 64.5% 1.55 64.5%
Match center
Lens
W W D W L
19.10 13:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lens 2:1 Paris FCParis FC
04.10 19:05 UTC Ligue 1
Lens 2:1 AuxerreAuxerre
28.09 18:45 UTC Ligue 1
Lens 0:0 RennesRennes
20.09 19:05 UTC Ligue 1
Lens 3:0 LilleLille
14.09 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Lens 0:2 Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
3 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
1.4 Scored
0.8 Conceded
10 Points
Marseille
W W W W W
18.10 19:05 UTC Ligue 1
Marseille 6:2 Le HavreLe Havre
04.10 15:00 UTC Ligue 1
Marseille 3:0 MetzMetz
26.09 18:45 UTC Ligue 1
Marseille 2:1 StrasbourgStrasbourg
22.09 18:00 UTC Ligue 1
Marseille 1:0 Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
12.09 18:45 UTC Ligue 1
Marseille 4:0 LorientLorient
5 Wins
0 Draws
0 Losses
3.2 Scored
0.6 Conceded
15 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyLens - Marseille

Lens
0 matches total
Marseille
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history