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Ligue 1
Ligue 1 France
08.03.2026 14:00 UTC Match prediction
08.03.2026 14:00 UTC
Finished

Ligue 1

France

Lens - Metz

France Football
Lens
Lens
3 : 0
Finished
Metz
Metz

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Lens - Metz March 8, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Lens.

Line favourite market consensus: Lens. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.28 / X 5.77 / 2 10.15
  • 1X2 market: Lens 74.2% / X 16.5% / Metz 9.4%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 63.1%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.3%
1 74.2%
X 16.5%
2 9.4%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.3%
Over 2.5 63.1%
Under 2.5 36.9%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 08.03.2026 14:00 UTC
Match center

Lens - Metz

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
X 5.79 market consensus · line only
1 1.28 market consensus · line only
2 9.65 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 3.69 market consensus · line only
12 1.14 market consensus · line only
1X 1.06 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 3.69 market consensus · line only
2 -1 2.93 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 8.40 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.28 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.49 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.55 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.86 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.88 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
1.29 77.5%
X 6.03 16.6%
10.06 9.9%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
1.27 78.7% 1.28 78.1% 1.30 76.9% 1.25 80.0% 1.27 78.7% 1.31 76.3%
X 5.50 18.2% 5.90 17.0% 6.24 16.0% 5.00 20.0% 5.75 17.4% 6.00 16.7%
10.00 10.0% 9.60 10.4% 11.60 8.6% 9.50 10.5% 11.00 9.1% 10.50 9.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 1.85 54.1% 1.84 54.4% 1.83 54.6% 1.91 52.4% 1.80 55.6% 1.85 54.1% 1.87 53.5% 1.83 54.6% 1.89 52.9%
yes 1.85 54.1% 1.94 51.6% 1.89 52.9% 1.80 55.6% 1.95 51.3% 1.88 53.2% 1.87 53.5% 1.87 53.5% 1.96 51.0%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 3.65 27.4% 3.90 25.6% 3.60 27.8% 3.50 28.6% 3.70 27.0% 3.75 26.7%
home_away 1.13 88.5% 1.16 86.2% 1.14 87.7% 1.14 87.7% 1.14 87.7% 1.10 90.9%
home_draw 1.04 96.2% 1.05 95.2% 1.06 94.3% 1.06 94.3% 1.08 92.6% 1.04 96.2%
Match center
Lens
D L W W W
27.02 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Lens 1:1 StrasbourgStrasbourg
21.02 16:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lens 2:3 MonacoMonaco
14.02 20:05 UTC Ligue 1
Lens 5:0 Paris FCParis FC
07.02 16:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lens 3:1 RennesRennes
30.01 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Lens 1:0 Le HavreLe Havre
3 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
2.4 Scored
1.0 Conceded
10 Points
Metz
L L L D L
01.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 0:1 Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29
21.02 20:05 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 0:3 Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
15.02 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 1:3 AuxerreAuxerre
06.02 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 0:0 LilleLille
01.02 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 0:1 AngersAngers
0 Wins
1 Draws
4 Losses
0.2 Scored
1.6 Conceded
1 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyLens - Metz

Lens
1 matches total
Metz
Lens: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Metz: 1 (100%)
Biggest win Metz 0:2 (29.10 18:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 2 goals (0:2, 29.10 18:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 2
2 Goals conceded 0

Match history

29.10 18:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lens
0:2
Metz