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Ligue 1
Ligue 1 France
28.09.2025 15:15 UTC Match prediction
28.09.2025 15:15 UTC
Finished

Ligue 1

France

Lille - Lyon

France Football
Lille
Lille
0 : 1
Finished
Lyon
Lyon

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Lille - Lyon September 28, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Lille.

Line favourite market consensus: Lille. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.29 / X 3.49 / 2 3.07
  • 1X2 market: Lille 41.6% / X 27.3% / Lyon 31.1%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 55.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.9%
1 41.6%
X 27.3%
2 31.1%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.6%
Over 2.5 54.9%
Under 2.5 45.1%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 28.09.2025 15:15 UTC
Match center

Lille - Lyon

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.08 market consensus · line only
X 3.49 market consensus · line only
1 2.29 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.64 market consensus · line only
12 1.30 market consensus · line only
1X 1.38 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.66 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.31 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 3.05 market consensus · line only
2 +1 5.20 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.74 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.12 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.29 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.59 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
2.32 43.1%
X 3.55 28.2%
3.18 31.5%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
2.28 43.9% 2.29 43.7% 2.34 42.7% 2.25 44.4% 2.30 43.5% 2.30 43.5%
X 3.45 29.0% 3.45 29.0% 3.75 26.7% 3.50 28.6% 3.40 29.4% 3.40 29.4%
3.05 32.8% 3.05 32.8% 3.12 32.1% 3.00 33.3% 3.10 32.3% 3.10 32.3%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 2.30 43.5% 2.35 42.6% 2.24 44.6% 2.25 44.4% 2.20 45.5% 2.30 43.5% 2.30 43.5% 2.21 45.3% 2.47 40.5%
yes 1.55 64.5% 1.58 63.3% 1.59 62.9% 1.60 62.5% 1.62 61.7% 1.57 63.7% 1.57 63.7% 1.59 62.9% 1.59 62.9%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 1.60 62.5% 1.67 59.9% 1.62 61.7% 1.57 63.7% 1.65 60.6% 1.67 59.9%
home_away 1.25 80.0% 1.32 75.8% 1.30 76.9% 1.30 76.9% 1.30 76.9% 1.31 76.3%
home_draw 1.36 73.5% 1.42 70.4% 1.36 73.5% 1.36 73.5% 1.39 71.9% 1.41 70.9%
Match center
Lille
L W W W D
20.09 19:05 UTC Ligue 1
Lille 0:3 LensLens
14.09 13:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lille 2:1 ToulouseToulouse
30.08 15:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lille 7:1 LorientLorient
24.08 18:45 UTC Ligue 1
Lille 1:0 MonacoMonaco
17.08 13:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lille 3:3 Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29
3 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
2.6 Scored
1.6 Conceded
10 Points
Lyon
W L W W W
19.09 18:45 UTC Ligue 1
Lyon 1:0 AngersAngers
14.09 18:45 UTC Ligue 1
Lyon 1:3 RennesRennes
31.08 18:45 UTC Ligue 1
Lyon 1:0 MarseilleMarseille
23.08 19:05 UTC Ligue 1
Lyon 3:0 MetzMetz
16.08 15:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lyon 1:0 LensLens
4 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
1.4 Scored
0.6 Conceded
12 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyLille - Lyon

Lille
1 matches total
Lyon
Lille: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Lyon: 1 (100%)
Biggest win Lion 1:2 (05.04 19:05 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 3 goals (1:2, 05.04 19:05 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 2
2 Goals conceded 1

Match history

05.04 19:05 UTC Ligue 1
Lille
1:2
Lion