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Ligue 1
Ligue 1 France
04.05.2025 18:45 UTC Match prediction
04.05.2025 18:45 UTC
Finished

Ligue 1

France

Lille - Marseille

France Football
Lille
Lille
1 : 1
Finished
Marseille
Marseille

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Lille - Marseille May 4, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Lille.

Line favourite market consensus: Lille. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.33 / X 3.48 / 2 3.15
  • 1X2 market: Lille 41.5% / X 27.8% / Marseille 30.7%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 53.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 3.4%
1 41.5%
X 27.8%
2 30.7%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 3.2%
Over 2.5 53.0%
Under 2.5 47.0%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 04.05.2025 18:45 UTC
Market 1 41.5% @ 2.33 / X 27.8% @ 3.48 / 2 30.7% @ 3.15
Match center

Lille - Marseille

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.15 market consensus · line only
X 3.48 market consensus · line only
1 2.33 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.65 market consensus · line only
12 1.34 market consensus · line only
1X 1.39 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.83 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.06 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome SStats Consensus
2.33 42.9%
X 3.48 28.7%
3.15 31.8%

Double chance

Outcome SStats Consensus
draw_away 1.65 60.6%
home_away 1.34 74.6%
home_draw 1.39 71.9%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome SStats Consensus
Over 2.5 1.83 54.6%
Under 2.5 2.06 48.5%

Home/Away

Outcome SStats Consensus
1.68 59.5%
2.27 44.1%
Match center
Lille
W W W L W
27.04 13:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lille 2:0 AngersAngers
20.04 13:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lille 3:1 AuxerreAuxerre
12.04 17:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lille 2:1 ToulouseToulouse
05.04 19:05 UTC Ligue 1
Lille 1:2 LionLion
26.10 19:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lille 2:0 LensLens
4 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
2.0 Scored
0.8 Conceded
12 Points
Marseille
W W L W L
27.04 18:45 UTC Ligue 1
Marseille 4:1 Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29
19.04 19:05 UTC Ligue 1
Marseille 5:1 Montpellier
12.04 15:00 UTC Ligue 1
Marseille 0:3 MonacoMonaco
06.04 18:45 UTC Ligue 1
Marseille 3:2 ToulouseToulouse
27.10 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Marseille 0:3 Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
3 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
2.4 Scored
2.0 Conceded
9 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyLille - Marseille

Lille
0 matches total
Marseille
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history