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Ligue 1
Ligue 1 France
26.10.2025 14:00 UTC Match prediction
26.10.2025 14:00 UTC
Finished

Ligue 1

France

Lille - Metz

France Football
Lille
Lille
6 : 1
Finished
Metz
Metz

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Lille - Metz October 26, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Lille.

Line favourite market consensus: Lille. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.27 / X 6.09 / 2 10.42
  • 1X2 market: Lille 75.2% / X 15.7% / Metz 9.2%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 64.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.8%
1 75.2%
X 15.7%
2 9.2%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.2%
Over 2.5 64.5%
Under 2.5 35.5%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 26.10.2025 14:00 UTC
Match center

Lille - Metz

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
X 6.10 market consensus · line only
1 1.27 market consensus · line only
2 9.58 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 3.87 market consensus · line only
12 1.13 market consensus · line only
1X 1.05 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 3.64 market consensus · line only
2 -1 3.06 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 7.75 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.30 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.46 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.65 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.85 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.89 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
1.27 78.7%
X 6.24 16.0%
10.96 9.1%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
1.25 80.0% 1.26 79.4% 1.30 76.9% 1.25 80.0% 1.25 80.0% 1.30 76.9%
X 5.90 17.0% 6.20 16.1% 6.28 15.9% 6.00 16.7% 6.25 16.0% 6.30 15.9%
10.75 9.3% 10.50 9.5% 11.70 8.6% 10.00 10.0% 10.00 10.0% 10.50 9.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 1.85 54.1% 1.91 52.4% 1.84 54.4% 1.85 54.1% 1.80 55.6% 1.82 55.0% 1.87 53.5% 1.82 55.0% 1.90 52.6%
yes 1.85 54.1% 1.86 53.8% 1.88 53.2% 1.85 54.1% 1.95 51.3% 1.93 51.8% 1.87 53.5% 1.88 53.2% 1.95 51.3%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 3.75 26.7% 3.92 25.5% 3.90 25.6% 3.75 26.7% 3.80 26.3% 4.05 24.7%
home_away 1.12 89.3% 1.15 87.0% 1.13 88.5% 1.12 89.3% 1.13 88.5% 1.14 87.7%
home_draw 1.05 95.2% 1.05 95.2% 1.05 95.2% 1.06 94.3% 1.08 92.6% 1.05 95.2%
Match center
Lille
W D L L W
19.10 18:45 UTC Ligue 1
Lille 2:0 NantesNantes
05.10 18:45 UTC Ligue 1
Lille 1:1 Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
28.09 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Lille 0:1 LionLion
20.09 19:05 UTC Ligue 1
Lille 0:3 LensLens
14.09 13:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lille 2:1 ToulouseToulouse
2 Wins
1 Draws
2 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.2 Conceded
7 Points
Metz
L L D L D
19.10 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 0:4 ToulouseToulouse
04.10 15:00 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 0:3 MarseilleMarseille
28.09 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 0:0 Le HavreLe Havre
21.09 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 2:5 MonacoMonaco
14.09 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 1:1 AngersAngers
0 Wins
2 Draws
3 Losses
0.6 Scored
2.6 Conceded
2 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyLille - Metz

Lille
0 matches total
Metz
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history