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Ligue 1
Ligue 1 France
30.11.2025 16:15 UTC Match prediction
30.11.2025 16:15 UTC
Finished

Ligue 1

France

Lorient - Nice

France Football
Lorient
Lorient
3 : 1
Finished
Nice
Nice

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Lorient - Nice November 30, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Lorient.

Line favourite market consensus: Lorient. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.41 / X 3.39 / 2 2.92
  • 1X2 market: Lorient 39.4% / X 28.0% / Nice 32.6%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 53.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.2%
1 39.4%
X 28.0%
2 32.5%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.3%
Over 2.5 53.0%
Under 2.5 47.0%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 30.11.2025 16:15 UTC
Match center

Lorient - Nice

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.92 market consensus · line only
X 3.39 market consensus · line only
1 2.41 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.58 market consensus · line only
12 1.32 market consensus · line only
1X 1.41 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.61 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.25 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.86 market consensus · line only
2 +1 5.11 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.81 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.04 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.25 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.60 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
2.44 41.0%
X 3.49 28.7%
3.03 33.0%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
2.35 42.6% 2.44 41.0% 2.51 39.8% 2.40 41.7% 2.35 42.6% 2.40 41.7%
X 3.40 29.4% 3.45 29.0% 3.54 28.3% 3.25 30.8% 3.40 29.4% 3.40 29.4%
2.95 33.9% 2.84 35.2% 3.00 33.3% 2.80 35.7% 3.00 33.3% 2.95 33.9%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 2.20 45.5% 2.28 43.9% 2.22 45.1% 2.25 44.4% 2.25 44.4% 2.22 45.1% 2.25 44.4% 2.19 45.7% 2.39 41.8%
yes 1.60 62.5% 1.61 62.1% 1.60 62.5% 1.60 62.5% 1.57 63.7% 1.62 61.7% 1.60 62.5% 1.60 62.5% 1.62 61.7%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 1.57 63.7% 1.60 62.5% 1.53 65.4% 1.57 63.7% 1.60 62.5% 1.60 62.5%
home_away 1.25 80.0% 1.35 74.1% 1.33 75.2% 1.30 76.9% 1.30 76.9% 1.35 74.1%
home_draw 1.38 72.5% 1.44 69.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.42 70.4% 1.45 69.0%
Match center
Lorient
D D L D L
23.11 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Lorient 1:1 NantesNantes
09.11 14:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lorient 1:1 ToulouseToulouse
02.11 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Lorient 0:3 LensLens
29.10 18:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lorient 1:1 Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
26.10 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Lorient 0:2 AngersAngers
0 Wins
3 Draws
2 Losses
0.6 Scored
1.6 Conceded
3 Points
Nice
L L L W W
21.11 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Nice 1:5 MarseilleMarseille
09.11 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Nice 1:2 MetzMetz
01.11 16:00 UTC Ligue 1
Nice 0:1 Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
29.10 18:00 UTC Ligue 1
Nice 2:0 LilleLille
26.10 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Nice 2:1 RennesRennes
2 Wins
0 Draws
3 Losses
1.2 Scored
1.8 Conceded
6 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyLorient - Nice

Lorient
0 matches total
Nice
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history