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Ligue 1
Ligue 1 France
23.08.2025 19:05 UTC Match prediction
23.08.2025 19:05 UTC
Finished

Ligue 1

France

Lyon - Metz

France Football
Lyon
Lyon
3 : 0
Finished
Metz
Metz

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Lyon - Metz August 23, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Lyon.

Line favourite market consensus: Lyon. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.45 / X 4.82 / 2 6.52
  • 1X2 market: Lyon 65.7% / X 19.7% / Metz 14.6%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 61.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.0%
1 65.7%
X 19.7%
2 14.6%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.0%
Over 2.5 61.7%
Under 2.5 38.3%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 23.08.2025 19:05 UTC
Match center

Lyon - Metz

Form 5/3 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 6.54 market consensus · line only
X 4.83 market consensus · line only
1 1.45 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 2.76 market consensus · line only
12 1.18 market consensus · line only
1X 1.11 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.73 market consensus · line only
2 -1 2.17 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 6.00 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.47 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.53 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.46 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.08 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.69 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
1.47 68.0%
X 4.92 20.3%
6.79 14.7%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
1.44 69.4% 1.47 68.0% 1.49 67.1% 1.44 69.4% 1.44 69.4% 1.50 66.7%
X 4.75 21.1% 4.90 20.4% 5.02 19.9% 4.60 21.7% 4.75 21.1% 5.00 20.0%
6.40 15.6% 6.00 16.7% 6.97 14.4% 6.00 16.7% 6.50 15.4% 6.50 15.4%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 2.10 47.6% 2.15 46.5% 2.10 47.6% 2.05 48.8% 2.05 48.8% 2.07 48.3% 2.15 46.5% 2.07 48.3% 2.12 47.2%
yes 1.67 59.9% 1.68 59.5% 1.67 59.9% 1.70 58.8% 1.70 58.8% 1.70 58.8% 1.60 62.5% 1.67 59.9% 1.76 56.8%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 2.70 37.0% 2.83 35.3% 2.75 36.4% 2.62 38.2% 2.75 36.4% 2.86 35.0%
home_away 1.14 87.7% 1.21 82.6% 1.20 83.3% 1.18 84.8% 1.19 84.0% 1.20 83.3%
home_draw 1.11 90.1% 1.12 89.3% 1.13 88.5% 1.11 90.1% 1.14 87.7% 1.12 89.3%
Match center
Lyon
W W L L W
16.08 15:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lyon 1:0 LensLens
17.05 19:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lyon 2:0 AngersAngers
10.05 19:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lyon 0:2 MonacoMonaco
04.05 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Lyon 1:2 LensLens
26.04 19:05 UTC Ligue 1
Lyon 4:1 RennesRennes
3 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
1.6 Scored
1.0 Conceded
9 Points
Metz
L D D
17.08 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 0:1 StrasbourgStrasbourg
29.05 18:30 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 1:1 Reims
21.05 18:00 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 1:1 Reims
0 Wins
2 Draws
1 Losses
0.7 Scored
1.0 Conceded
2 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyLyon - Metz

Lyon
0 matches total
Metz
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history