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Ligue 1
Ligue 1 France
15.02.2026 19:45 UTC Match prediction
15.02.2026 19:45 UTC
Finished

Ligue 1

France

Lyon - Nice

France Football
Lyon
Lyon
2 : 0
Finished
Nice
Nice

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Lyon - Nice February 15, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Lyon.

Line favourite market consensus: Lyon. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.77 / X 3.80 / 2 4.46
  • 1X2 market: Lyon 53.6% / X 25.0% / Nice 21.4%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 55.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.2%
1 53.7%
X 25.0%
2 21.3%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.8%
Over 2.5 55.2%
Under 2.5 44.8%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 15.02.2026 19:45 UTC
Match center

Lyon - Nice

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 4.46 market consensus · line only
X 3.80 market consensus · line only
1 1.77 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 2.06 market consensus · line only
12 1.26 market consensus · line only
1X 1.20 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.10 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.63 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 4.53 market consensus · line only
2 +1 8.15 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.73 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.13 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.13 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.67 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
1.81 55.3%
X 3.86 25.9%
4.56 21.9%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
1.76 56.8% 1.80 55.6% 1.84 54.4% 1.75 57.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.82 55.0%
X 3.65 27.4% 3.95 25.3% 3.94 25.4% 3.60 27.8% 3.80 26.3% 3.85 26.0%
4.40 22.7% 4.15 24.1% 4.56 21.9% 4.20 23.8% 4.50 22.2% 4.60 21.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 2.15 46.5% 2.20 45.5% 2.15 46.5% 2.05 48.8% 2.05 48.8% 2.15 46.5% 2.20 45.5% 2.12 47.2% 2.26 44.3%
yes 1.62 61.7% 1.65 60.6% 1.64 61.0% 1.70 58.8% 1.70 58.8% 1.65 60.6% 1.62 61.7% 1.64 61.0% 1.69 59.2%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 2.00 50.0% 2.07 48.3% 2.00 50.0% 2.00 50.0% 2.05 48.8% 2.00 50.0%
home_away 1.22 82.0% 1.30 76.9% 1.25 80.0% 1.25 80.0% 1.27 78.7% 1.25 80.0%
home_draw 1.20 83.3% 1.24 80.7% 1.20 83.3% 1.18 84.8% 1.23 81.3% 1.17 85.5%
Match center
Lyon
W W W W W
07.02 20:05 UTC Ligue 1
Lyon 1:0 NantesNantes
01.02 14:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lyon 1:0 LilleLille
25.01 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Lyon 5:2 MetzMetz
18.01 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Lyon 2:1 Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29
03.01 16:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lyon 3:1 MonacoMonaco
5 Wins
0 Draws
0 Losses
2.4 Scored
0.8 Conceded
15 Points
Nice
D D W L D
08.02 14:00 UTC Ligue 1
Nice 0:0 MonacoMonaco
01.02 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Nice 2:2 Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29
25.01 14:00 UTC Ligue 1
Nice 4:1 NantesNantes
17.01 18:00 UTC Ligue 1
Nice 1:5 ToulouseToulouse
03.01 18:00 UTC Ligue 1
Nice 1:1 StrasbourgStrasbourg
1 Wins
3 Draws
1 Losses
1.6 Scored
1.8 Conceded
6 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyLyon - Nice

Lyon
1 matches total
Nice
Lyon: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Nice: 1 (100%)
Biggest win Nice 2:3 (18.10 15:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 5 goals (2:3, 18.10 15:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0
0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

18.10 15:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lion
2:3
Nice