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Ligue 1 France

32 round 03.05.2026 18:45 UTC Match prediction

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction

03.05.2026 18:45 UTC 32 round

Finished

Ligue 1

Lyon - Rennes

France Football

Stadium Parc Olympique Lyonnais

Referee C. Turpin

Capacity 61 556

Lyon

4 : 2

Finished

Rennes

Lyon face Rennes on May 3, 2026 in the Ligue 1, France.

Recent form (W-D-L): Lyon 3-1-1, Rennes 4-1-0. These sides have met 2 times recently — the head-to-head record is shown below. The bookmaker line makes Lyon the favourite at about 45%. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 40% to win — below the market read. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PrognozAI AI pick.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Lyon — 40%

1 · Lyon40.1%

X · draw25.9%

2 · Rennes34.0%

Model estimate: win Lyon 40.1%, draw 25.9%, win Rennes 34.0%. Model favourite — Lyon.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Lyon - Rennes May 3, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Lyon.

Strongest: Lyon - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.09 / X 3.75 / 2 3.21
1X2 market: Lyon 45.2% / X 25.2% / Rennes 29.5%
Glicko: Lyon 40.1% / X 25.9% / Rennes 34.0%
Total 2.5: over probability 38.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.7% 13 books · best price +2.9%

1 45.4%

X 25.1%

2 29.5%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.0%

Over 2.5 61.7%

Under 2.5 38.3%

Odds source: consensus of 13 books (10Bet, 1xBet, 888Sport, Bet365, BetVictor, Betano). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome

Agreement 4/5

Confidence 42.9%

Total Under 2.5

Score 1:0

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center

Stadium Grupama (Lion, France), 32 500 zriteley (53% pri vmestimosti 61 556)

Referee Kleman Tyurpen (Ullen)

Start 03.05.2026 18:45 UTC

Market 1 45.3% @ 2.09 / X 25.2% @ 3.75 / 2 29.5% @ 3.21

Capacity 61,556

🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Lyon 40%

💹 Market Lyon 4523%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Lyon - Rennes

Itogovyy protokol i rezultaty vstrechi Lion - Renn, 3 maya 2026. Highlights i statistika matcha, Correct score. Championship France po futbolu (Liga 1) 2025-2026, 32-y Round. Lion - Renn, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matcha.

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 2 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

7/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 4:2

Events 19

Statistics 24

Lineups 40

min Event Player Team

6' 6' Normal Goal | M. Tamari Mousa Tamari Rennes

23' 23' Yellow Card | E. Lepaul E. Lepaul Rennes

37' 37' Normal Goal | R. Yaremchuk | assist/sub out: C. Tolisso R. Yaremchuk Lyon

40' 40' Yellow Card | B. Samba Brice Samba Rennes

42' 42' Penalty | C. Tolisso C. Tolisso Lyon

48' 48' Normal Goal | E. Lepaul | assist/sub out: M. Tamari E. Lepaul Rennes

52' 52' Normal Goal | A. Moreira | assist/sub out: Abner Vinicius Afonso Moreira Lyon

70' 70' Substitution 1 | R. Yaremchuk | assist/sub out: P. Šulc R. Yaremchuk Lyon

Metric Lyon Rennes SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 3.17 0.84 final

Zablokirovannye udary 4 0 final

Shots off target 3 3 final

Shots on target 9 5 final

Udary vsego 16 8 final

Fouls soversheno 10 14 final

Zheltye kartochki 0 3 final

Offsides 1 4 final

Lyon #1 D. Greif, #8 C. Tolisso, #16 Abner, #17 Afonso Moreira, #77 R. Yaremchuk, #19 Moussa Niakhaté, #23 T. Morton, #44 K. Merah, #9 Endrick, #22 Clinton Mata, #98 A. Maitland-Niles

Rennes #7 B. Embolo, #11 Mousa Tamari, #26 Q. Merlin, #30 Brice Samba, #3 L. Brassier, #9 E. Lepaul, #45 M. Camara, #21 V. Rongier, #48 A. Ait Boudlal, #17 S. Szymański, #36 Alidu Seidu

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Ait Boudlal Rennes football.player.assists 0

A. Ait Boudlal Rennes Dribling popytki 4

A. Ait Boudlal Rennes Edinoborstva vsego 1

A. Ait Boudlal Rennes Edinoborstva vyigrano 12

A. Ait Boudlal Rennes Fouls soversheno 1

A. Ait Boudlal Rennes Seyvy 0

A. Ait Boudlal Rennes football.player.minutes_played 90

A. Ait Boudlal Rennes Klyuchevye pasy 58

A. Ait Boudlal Rennes Reyting (staryy) 6.2

A. Ait Boudlal Rennes Bloki 2

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Lyon 45.1% 40.1% market and model agree

Draw 25.3% 25.9% draw risk

Rennes 29.5% 34.0%

xG - 1.40 : 1.27

Total 2.5 Over 38.6% - Under 61.4%

Model check - - Difference 0.05

Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.05

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 40.1% / 25.9% / 34.0% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,599 / 1,605 Lyon / Rennes

RD 73 / 73 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 3.21 market consensus · no value · model 34.0%

X 3.75 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 2.09 market consensus · no value · model 40.1%

Double chance

X2 1.72 market consensus · weak value +3.0% · model 59.9%

12 1.26 market consensus · no value · model 74.1%

1X 1.34 market consensus · no value · model 66.0%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.75 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.39 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 3.13 market consensus · line only

2 +1 5.40 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.53 market consensus · no value · model 38.6%

Under 2.5 2.46 market consensus · weak value +51.1% · model 61.4%

Both teams to score

No 2.58 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.45 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
	2.06 48.5%	2.16 46.3%	2.10 47.6%	2.05 48.8%	2.10 47.6%	2.05 48.8%
X	3.75 26.7%	3.94 25.4%	3.50 28.6%	3.90 25.6%	3.70 27.0%	3.60 27.8%
	3.15 31.8%	3.36 29.8%	3.10 32.3%	3.20 31.3%	3.25 30.8%	3.25 30.8%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet
no	2.55 39.2%	2.61 38.3%	2.60 38.5%	2.50 40.0%	2.62 38.2%	2.63 38.0%	2.60 38.5%	2.58 38.8%	2.55 39.2%
yes	1.45 69.0%	1.44 69.4%	1.44 69.4%	1.50 66.7%	1.45 69.0%	1.44 69.4%	1.44 69.4%	1.44 69.4%	1.47 68.0%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.73 57.8%	1.78 56.2%	1.70 58.8%	1.70 58.8%	1.75 57.1%	1.67 59.9%
home_away	1.22 82.0%	1.30 76.9%	1.29 77.5%	1.25 80.0%	1.27 78.7%	1.22 82.0%
home_draw	1.33 75.2%	1.37 73.0%	1.33 75.2%	1.36 73.5%	1.36 73.5%	1.30 76.9%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	1.03 97.1%	1.03 97.1%
Over 1.0	—	1.03 97.1%
Over 1.25	—	1.08 92.6%
Over 1.5	1.17 85.5%	1.11 90.1%
Over 1.75	—	1.15 87.0%
Over 2.0	—	1.18 84.8%
Over 2.5	1.53 65.4%	—
Over 3.5	2.30 43.5%	—
Over 4.5	3.95 25.3%	—
Over 5.5	7.00 14.3%	—
Under 0.5	11.00 9.1%	—
Under 1.5	5.00 20.0%	—
Under 2.5	2.45 40.8%	—
Under 3.5	1.60 62.5%	—
Under 4.5	1.25 80.0%	—
Under 5.5	1.09 91.7%	—

Match center

Lyon

Founded 1950

Rennes

Founded 1901

Match center

Lyon

RI Remi Imber np

OM Orel Mangala pz

Rennes

PF Pshemyslav Frankovski pz

AN Arno Norden pz

Lyon Founded: 1950

Rennes Founded: 1901

Match center

Lyon

W W W D L

25.04 13:00 UTC Ligue 1

Lyon 3:2 Auxerre

19.04 18:45 UTC Ligue 1

Lyon 2:1 Paris Saint Germain

12.04 18:45 UTC Ligue 1

Lyon 2:0 Lorient

05.04 13:00 UTC Ligue 1

Lyon 0:0 Angers

22.03 14:00 UTC Ligue 1

Lyon 1:2 Monaco

3 Wins

1 Draws

1 Losses

1.6 Scored

1.0 Conceded

10 Points

Rennes

W W W W D

26.04 15:15 UTC Ligue 1

Rennes 2:1 Nantes

19.04 15:15 UTC Ligue 1

Rennes 3:0 Strasbourg

11.04 19:05 UTC Ligue 1

Rennes 2:1 Angers

04.04 17:00 UTC Ligue 1

Rennes 4:3 Stade Brestois 29

22.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1

Rennes 0:0 Metz

4 Wins

1 Draws

0 Losses

2.2 Scored

1.0 Conceded

13 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyLyon - Rennes

Lyon

2 matches total

Rennes

Lyon: 0 (0%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Rennes: 2 (100%)

Biggest win Lion 4:1 (26.04 19:05 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 5 goals (4:1, 26.04 19:05 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0

0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

14.09 18:45 UTC

Ligue 1

Lion

1:3

Rennes

26.04 19:05 UTC

Ligue 1

Lion

4:1

Rennes

Match center

Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.

Team 1 Lyon

Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket

Team 2 Rennes

31 Games 31

17 Wins 16

6 Draws 8

8 Losses 7

48 Scored 54

32 Conceded 42

57 Points 56

93.06 Attacks 97.1

46.74 Dangerous attacks 46.35

0 Big chances 0

11.65 Shots on goal 13.35

4.61 Shots on target 4.97

eniya 0.13 Goly Mussa Al-Tamari Esteban Lepol 0:1 6' Roman Yaremchuk Korentin Tolisso 1 37' Korentin Tolisso 2:1 42' Esteban Lepol Mussa Al-Tamari 2 48' Afonsu Moreyra Abner 3:2 52' Endrik Korentin Tolisso 4:2 75' Nakazaniya Esteban Lepol 23' Bris Samba 40' Kenten Merlen 83'

Lion Renn 31 Games 31 17 Wins 16 6 Draws 8 Losses 7 48 Scored 54 32 Conceded 42 57 Points 56 93.06 Attacks 97.1 46.74 Dangerous attacks 46.35 0 Big chances 0 11.65 Shots on goal 13.35 4.61 Udary v stvor 4.97 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 5.32 Uglovye 5.81 1.29 Offsaydy 2.45 13.35 Foly 12.32 54.55 % vladeniya myachom 53.48 1.87 Warnings 1.71 0.23 Sendoffs 0.13 Goly Mussa Al-Tamari Esteban Lepol 0:1 6' Roman Yaremchuk Korentin Tolisso 1 37' Korentin Tolisso 2:1 42' Esteban Lepol Mussa Al-Tamari 2 48' Afonsu Moreyra Abner 3:2 52' Endrik Korentin Tolisso 4:2 75' Nakazaniya Esteban Lepol 23' Bris Samba 40' Kenten Merlen 83'