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Ligue 1
Ligue 1 France
24.01.2026 20:05 UTC Match prediction
24.01.2026 20:05 UTC
Finished

Ligue 1

France

Marseille - Lens

France Football
Marseille
Marseille
3 : 1
Finished
Lens
Lens

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Marseille - Lens January 24, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Marseille.

Line favourite market consensus: Marseille. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.09 / X 3.73 / 2 3.24
  • 1X2 market: Marseille 45.3% / X 25.4% / Lens 29.3%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 62.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.5%
1 45.3%
X 25.4%
2 29.2%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.0%
Over 2.5 62.1%
Under 2.5 37.9%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 24.01.2026 20:05 UTC
Match center

Marseille - Lens

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.25 market consensus · line only
X 3.73 market consensus · line only
1 2.09 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.76 market consensus · line only
12 1.27 market consensus · line only
1X 1.34 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.78 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.44 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 3.28 market consensus · line only
2 +1 5.57 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.52 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.49 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.60 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.46 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
2.11 47.4%
X 3.83 26.1%
3.42 29.2%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
1.99 50.3% 2.09 47.9% 2.10 47.6% 2.05 48.8% 2.10 47.6% 2.15 46.5%
X 3.75 26.7% 3.80 26.3% 3.90 25.6% 3.50 28.6% 3.80 26.3% 3.80 26.3%
3.35 29.9% 3.25 30.8% 3.34 29.9% 3.20 31.3% 3.10 32.3% 3.10 32.3%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 2.45 40.8% 2.69 37.2% 2.68 37.3% 2.60 38.5% 2.50 40.0% 2.60 38.5% 2.70 37.0% 2.58 38.8% 2.74 36.5%
yes 1.48 67.6% 1.45 69.0% 1.48 67.6% 1.44 69.4% 1.50 66.7% 1.45 69.0% 1.40 71.4% 1.44 69.4% 1.49 67.1%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 1.80 55.6% 1.77 56.5% 1.73 57.8% 1.80 55.6% 1.75 57.1% 1.79 55.9%
home_away 1.22 82.0% 1.27 78.7% 1.29 77.5% 1.25 80.0% 1.26 79.4% 1.29 77.5%
home_draw 1.30 76.9% 1.35 74.1% 1.33 75.2% 1.33 75.2% 1.39 71.9% 1.35 74.1%
Match center
Marseille
W L W L D
17.01 20:05 UTC Ligue 1
Marseille 5:2 AngersAngers
04.01 14:00 UTC Ligue 1
Marseille 0:2 NantesNantes
14.12 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Marseille 1:0 MonacoMonaco
05.12 20:00 UTC Ligue 1
Marseille 0:1 LilleLille
29.11 20:05 UTC Ligue 1
Marseille 2:2 ToulouseToulouse
2 Wins
1 Draws
2 Losses
1.6 Scored
1.4 Conceded
7 Points
Lens
W W W W W
17.01 16:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lens 1:0 AuxerreAuxerre
02.01 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Lens 3:0 ToulouseToulouse
14.12 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Lens 2:0 NiceNice
06.12 16:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lens 2:1 NantesNantes
30.11 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Lens 2:1 AngersAngers
5 Wins
0 Draws
0 Losses
2.0 Scored
0.4 Conceded
15 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyMarseille - Lens

Marseille
1 matches total
Lens
Marseille: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Lens: 1 (100%)
Biggest win Lens 1:2 (25.10 19:05 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 3 goals (1:2, 25.10 19:05 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 2
2 Goals conceded 1

Match history

25.10 19:05 UTC Ligue 1
Marseille
1:2
Lens