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Ligue 1 France

22.03.2026 16:15 UTC Match prediction

22.03.2026 16:15 UTC

Finished

Ligue 1

Marseille - Lille

France Football

Marseille

1 : 2

Finished

Lille

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Marseille - Lille March 22, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Marseille.

Line favourite market consensus: Marseille. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.89 / X 3.62 / 2 3.98
1X2 market: Marseille 50.1% / X 26.2% / Lille 23.8%
Total 2.5: over probability 51.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.7%

1 50.1%

X 26.1%

2 23.8%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.6%

Over 2.5 51.7%

Under 2.5 48.3%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Start 22.03.2026 16:15 UTC

Market 1 50.1% @ 1.89 / X 26.1% @ 3.62 / 2 23.8% @ 3.98

Match center

Marseille - Lille

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 2 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 3.97 market consensus · line only

X 3.62 market consensus · line only

1 1.89 market consensus · line only

Double chance

X2 1.90 market consensus · line only

12 1.27 market consensus · line only

1X 1.24 market consensus · line only

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.94 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.49 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 3.94 market consensus · line only

2 +1 6.97 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.85 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 1.98 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 2.06 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.71 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome	SStats Consensus
	1.90 52.6%
X	3.60 27.8%
	3.70 27.0%

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
	1.90 52.6%	1.90 52.6%	1.95 51.3%	1.85 54.1%	1.90 52.6%	1.90 52.6%
X	3.55 28.2%	3.65 27.4%	3.81 26.3%	3.50 28.6%	3.70 27.0%	3.60 27.8%
	3.80 26.3%	4.00 25.0%	4.16 24.0%	3.80 26.3%	3.90 25.6%	4.05 24.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet
no	2.05 48.8%	2.13 47.0%	2.02 49.5%	2.05 48.8%	2.05 48.8%	2.05 48.8%	2.05 48.8%	2.05 48.8%	2.00 50.0%
yes	1.70 58.8%	1.69 59.2%	1.72 58.1%	1.70 58.8%	1.70 58.8%	1.72 58.1%	1.73 57.8%	1.70 58.8%	1.72 58.1%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.85 54.1%	1.95 51.3%	1.85 54.1%	1.91 52.4%	1.95 51.3%	1.83 54.6%
home_away	1.22 82.0%	1.31 76.3%	1.29 77.5%	1.25 80.0%	1.28 78.1%	1.25 80.0%
home_draw	1.25 80.0%	1.27 78.7%	1.25 80.0%	1.22 82.0%	1.26 79.4%	1.20 83.3%

Match center

Marseille

W W W L D

13.03 19:45 UTC Ligue 1

Marseille 1:0 Auxerre

07.03 20:05 UTC Ligue 1

Marseille 1:0 Toulouse

01.03 19:45 UTC Ligue 1

Marseille 3:2 Lion

20.02 19:45 UTC Ligue 1

Marseille 0:2 Stade Brestois 29

14.02 16:00 UTC Ligue 1

Marseille 2:2 Strasbourg

3 Wins

1 Draws

1 Losses

1.4 Scored

1.2 Conceded

10 Points

Lille

W D W W D

15.03 19:45 UTC Ligue 1

Lille 2:1 Rennes

08.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1

Lille 1:1 Lorient

01.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1

Lille 1:0 Nantes

22.02 16:15 UTC Ligue 1

Lille 1:0 Angers

14.02 18:00 UTC Ligue 1

Lille 1:1 Stade Brestois 29

3 Wins

2 Draws

0 Losses

1.2 Scored

0.6 Conceded

11 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyMarseille - Lille

Marseille

2 matches total

Lille

Marseille: 0 (0%)

Draws:1 (50%)

Lille: 1 (50%)

Biggest win Lille 0:1 (05.12 20:00 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 2 goals (1:1, 04.05 18:45 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw 1:1 (04.05 18:45 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 2

2 Goals conceded 1

Match history

05.12 20:00 UTC

Ligue 1

Marseille

0:1

Lille

04.05 18:45 UTC

Ligue 1

Marseille

1:1

Lille