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Ligue 1
Ligue 1 France
23.08.2025 15:00 UTC Match prediction
23.08.2025 15:00 UTC
Finished

Ligue 1

France

Marseille - Paris FC

France Football
Marseille
Marseille
5 : 2
Finished
Paris FC
Paris FC

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Marseille - Paris FC August 23, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Marseille.

Line favourite market consensus: Marseille. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.41 / X 4.91 / 2 7.34
  • 1X2 market: Marseille 67.6% / X 19.4% / Paris FC 13.0%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 58.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.9%
1 67.6%
X 19.4%
2 13.0%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.8%
Over 2.5 58.9%
Under 2.5 41.1%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 23.08.2025 15:00 UTC
Match center

Marseille - Paris FC

Form 5/1 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 7.36 market consensus · line only
X 4.93 market consensus · line only
1 1.41 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 2.90 market consensus · line only
12 1.18 market consensus · line only
1X 1.10 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.96 market consensus · line only
2 -1 2.29 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 6.25 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.42 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.62 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.32 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.93 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.81 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
1.42 70.4%
X 5.11 19.6%
7.57 13.2%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
1.41 70.9% 1.40 71.4% 1.45 69.0% 1.40 71.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.45 69.0%
X 4.85 20.6% 5.00 20.0% 5.07 19.7% 4.60 21.7% 5.00 20.0% 5.00 20.0%
7.00 14.3% 7.20 13.9% 7.85 12.7% 7.00 14.3% 7.00 14.3% 7.40 13.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 1.93 51.8% 1.96 51.0% 1.92 52.1% 1.95 51.3% 1.95 51.3% 1.93 51.8% 1.95 51.3% 1.90 52.6% 1.98 50.5%
yes 1.77 56.5% 1.82 55.0% 1.80 55.6% 1.75 57.1% 1.80 55.6% 1.82 55.0% 1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.88 53.2%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 2.80 35.7% 2.99 33.4% 2.80 35.7% 2.75 36.4% 2.90 34.5% 3.04 32.9%
home_away 1.13 88.5% 1.21 82.6% 1.20 83.3% 1.17 85.5% 1.18 84.8% 1.19 84.0%
home_draw 1.10 90.9% 1.10 90.9% 1.10 90.9% 1.10 90.9% 1.12 89.3% 1.10 90.9%
Match center
Marseille
L W W D W
15.08 18:45 UTC Ligue 1
Marseille 0:1 RennesRennes
17.05 19:00 UTC Ligue 1
Marseille 4:2 RennesRennes
10.05 19:00 UTC Ligue 1
Marseille 3:1 Le HavreLe Havre
04.05 18:45 UTC Ligue 1
Marseille 1:1 LilleLille
27.04 18:45 UTC Ligue 1
Marseille 4:1 Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29
3 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
2.4 Scored
1.2 Conceded
10 Points
Paris FC
L
17.08 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Paris FC 0:1 AngersAngers
0 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
0.0 Scored
1.0 Conceded
0 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyMarseille - Paris FC

Marseille
0 matches total
Paris FC
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history