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Ligue 1 France

22.09.2025 18:00 UTC Match prediction

22.09.2025 18:00 UTC

Finished

Ligue 1

Marseille - Paris Saint Germain

France Football

Marseille

1 : 0

Finished

Paris Saint Germain

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Marseille - Paris Saint Germain September 22, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Paris Saint Germain.

Line favourite market consensus: Paris Saint Germain. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 4.23 / X 4.01 / 2 1.77
1X2 market: Marseille 22.5% / X 23.7% / Paris Saint Germain 53.8%
Total 2.5: over probability 59.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.1%

1 22.5%

X 23.7%

2 53.8%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.1%

Over 2.5 59.5%

Under 2.5 40.5%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Start 22.09.2025 18:00 UTC

Match center

Marseille - Paris Saint Germain

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 1.77 market consensus · line only

X 4.02 market consensus · line only

1 4.24 market consensus · line only

Double chance

X2 1.23 market consensus · line only

12 1.24 market consensus · line only

1X 2.06 market consensus · line only

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.25 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.05 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 1.76 market consensus · line only

2 +1 2.31 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.60 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 2.35 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 2.31 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.58 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome	SStats Consensus
	4.43 22.6%
X	4.10 24.4%
	1.78 56.2%

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
	4.20 23.8%	4.35 23.0%	4.50 22.2%	3.80 26.3%	4.10 24.4%	4.30 23.3%
X	3.95 25.3%	4.00 25.0%	4.20 23.8%	3.80 26.3%	4.10 24.4%	4.10 24.4%
	1.75 57.1%	1.75 57.1%	1.80 55.6%	1.83 54.6%	1.73 57.8%	1.82 55.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	Marathonbet	Pinnacle
no	2.30 43.5%	2.29 43.7%	2.32 43.1%	2.40 41.7%	2.20 45.5%	2.27 44.1%	2.38 42.0%	2.29 43.7%	2.40 41.7%
yes	1.55 64.5%	1.60 62.5%	1.55 64.5%	1.53 65.4%	1.62 61.7%	1.60 62.5%	1.53 65.4%	1.55 64.5%	1.62 61.7%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Marathonbet
draw_away	1.22 82.0%	1.24 80.7%	1.25 80.0%	1.22 82.0%	1.25 80.0%	1.24 80.7%
home_away	1.20 83.3%	1.27 78.7%	1.25 80.0%	1.22 82.0%	1.24 80.7%	1.26 79.4%
home_draw	2.00 50.0%	2.12 47.2%	1.91 52.4%	2.05 48.8%	2.05 48.8%	2.13 47.0%

Match center

Marseille

W L W L W

12.09 18:45 UTC Ligue 1

Marseille 4:0 Lorient

31.08 18:45 UTC Ligue 1

Marseille 0:1 Lion

23.08 15:00 UTC Ligue 1

Marseille 5:2 Paris FC

15.08 18:45 UTC Ligue 1

Marseille 0:1 Rennes

17.05 19:00 UTC Ligue 1

Marseille 4:2 Rennes

3 Wins

0 Draws

2 Losses

2.6 Scored

1.2 Conceded

9 Points

Paris Saint Germain

W W W W W

14.09 15:15 UTC Ligue 1

Paris Saint Germain 2:0 Lens

30.08 19:05 UTC Ligue 1

Paris Saint Germain 6:3 Toulouse

22.08 18:45 UTC Ligue 1

Paris Saint Germain 1:0 Angers

17.08 18:45 UTC Ligue 1

Paris Saint Germain 1:0 Nantes

17.05 19:00 UTC Ligue 1

Paris Saint Germain 3:1 Auxerre

5 Wins

0 Draws

0 Losses

2.6 Scored

0.8 Conceded

15 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyMarseille - Paris Saint Germain

Marseille

1 matches total

Paris Saint Germain

Marseille: 0 (0%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Paris Saint Germain: 1 (100%)

Biggest win Paris Saint Germain 0:3 (27.10 19:45 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 3 goals (0:3, 27.10 19:45 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 3

3 Goals conceded 0

Match history

27.10 19:45 UTC

Ligue 1

Marseille

0:3

Paris Saint Germain