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Ligue 1
Ligue 1 France
29.11.2025 20:05 UTC
Finished

Ligue 1

France

Marseille - Toulouse

France Football
Marseille
Marseille
2 : 2
Finished
Toulouse
Toulouse

Marseille face Toulouse on November 29, 2025 in the Ligue 1, France.

The bookmaker line makes Marseille the favourite, pricing their chances near 57%. Below: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PrognozAI AI breakdown of the match.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Marseille - Toulouse November 29, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Marseille.

Line favourite market consensus: Marseille. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.65 / X 3.95 / 2 5.07
  • 1X2 market: Marseille 57.3% / X 24.0% / Toulouse 18.7%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 55.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.6%
1 57.4%
X 24.0%
2 18.7%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.6%
Over 2.5 54.9%
Under 2.5 45.1%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 29.11.2025 20:05 UTC
Market 1 57.4% @ 1.65 / X 24.0% @ 3.95 / 2 18.7% @ 5.07
Match center

Marseille - Toulouse

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 5.08 market consensus · line only
X 3.96 market consensus · line only
1 1.65 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 2.25 market consensus · line only
12 1.25 market consensus · line only
1X 1.17 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.27 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.75 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 4.70 market consensus · line only
2 +1 10.00 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.74 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.12 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.05 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.72 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
1.68 59.5%
X 4.04 24.8%
5.25 19.1%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
1.65 60.6% 1.68 59.5% 1.70 58.8% 1.62 61.7% 1.67 59.9% 1.70 58.8%
X 3.95 25.3% 4.10 24.4% 4.04 24.8% 3.80 26.3% 3.90 25.6% 4.05 24.7%
5.00 20.0% 4.85 20.6% 5.17 19.3% 5.00 20.0% 4.75 21.1% 5.20 19.2%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 2.05 48.8% 2.11 47.4% 2.12 47.2% 2.10 47.6% 2.00 50.0% 2.05 48.8% 2.00 50.0% 2.02 49.5% 2.14 46.7%
yes 1.70 58.8% 1.70 58.8% 1.72 58.1% 1.70 58.8% 1.75 57.1% 1.72 58.1% 1.70 58.8% 1.71 58.5% 1.76 56.8%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 2.20 45.5% 2.22 45.1% 2.30 43.5% 2.15 46.5% 2.22 45.1% 2.32 43.1%
home_away 1.20 83.3% 1.26 79.4% 1.25 80.0% 1.25 80.0% 1.24 80.7% 1.27 78.7%
home_draw 1.17 85.5% 1.18 84.8% 1.15 87.0% 1.17 85.5% 1.20 83.3% 1.19 84.0%
Match center
Marseille
W W W D L
21.11 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Marseille 5:1 NiceNice
08.11 16:00 UTC Ligue 1
Marseille 3:0 Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29
01.11 20:05 UTC Ligue 1
Marseille 1:0 AuxerreAuxerre
29.10 20:05 UTC Ligue 1
Marseille 2:2 AngersAngers
25.10 19:05 UTC Ligue 1
Marseille 1:2 LensLens
3 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
2.4 Scored
1.0 Conceded
10 Points
Toulouse
L D D D L
23.11 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Toulouse 0:1 AngersAngers
09.11 14:00 UTC Ligue 1
Toulouse 1:1 LorientLorient
02.11 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Toulouse 0:0 Le HavreLe Havre
29.10 20:05 UTC Ligue 1
Toulouse 2:2 RennesRennes
25.10 17:00 UTC Ligue 1
Toulouse 0:1 MonacoMonaco
0 Wins
3 Draws
2 Losses
0.6 Scored
1.0 Conceded
3 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyMarseille - Toulouse

Marseille
1 matches total
Toulouse
Marseille: 1 (100%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Toulouse: 0 (0%)
Biggest win Marseille 3:2 (06.04 18:45 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 5 goals (3:2, 06.04 18:45 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

3 Goals scored 2
2 Goals conceded 3

Match history

06.04 18:45 UTC Ligue 1
Marseille
3:2
Toulouse