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Ligue 1
Ligue 1 France
15.02.2026 16:15 UTC Match prediction
15.02.2026 16:15 UTC
Finished

Ligue 1

France

Metz - Auxerre

France Football
Metz
Metz
1 : 3
Finished
Auxerre
Auxerre

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Metz - Auxerre February 15, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Auxerre.

Line favourite market consensus: Auxerre. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.04 / X 3.01 / 2 2.55
  • 1X2 market: Metz 31.2% / X 31.6% / Auxerre 37.2%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 56.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.3%
1 31.2%
X 31.5%
2 37.2%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.7%
Over 2.5 43.8%
Under 2.5 56.2%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 15.02.2026 16:15 UTC
Match center

Metz - Auxerre

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.55 market consensus · line only
X 3.01 market consensus · line only
1 3.05 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.37 market consensus · line only
12 1.38 market consensus · line only
1X 1.51 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.40 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.13 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.51 market consensus · line only
2 +1 4.15 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.18 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.70 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.93 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.81 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
3.15 31.8%
X 3.09 32.4%
2.59 38.6%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
3.00 33.3% 3.05 32.8% 3.18 31.5% 2.90 34.5% 3.00 33.3% 3.10 32.3%
X 2.98 33.6% 3.10 32.3% 3.10 32.3% 2.90 34.5% 3.00 33.3% 3.00 33.3%
2.48 40.3% 2.51 39.8% 2.64 37.9% 2.50 40.0% 2.55 39.2% 2.55 39.2%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 1.90 52.6% 1.99 50.3% 1.89 52.9% 1.91 52.4% 1.95 51.3% 1.95 51.3% 1.91 52.4% 1.87 53.5% 2.01 49.8%
yes 1.80 55.6% 1.79 55.9% 1.83 54.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.78 56.2% 1.83 54.6% 1.83 54.6% 1.86 53.8%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.36 73.5% 1.41 70.9% 1.36 73.5% 1.36 73.5% 1.39 71.9% 1.33 75.2%
home_away 1.33 75.2% 1.42 70.4% 1.36 73.5% 1.36 73.5% 1.37 73.0% 1.33 75.2%
home_draw 1.50 66.7% 1.54 64.9% 1.50 66.7% 1.50 66.7% 1.55 64.5% 1.50 66.7%
Match center
Metz
D L L L D
06.02 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 0:0 LilleLille
01.02 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 0:1 AngersAngers
25.01 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 2:5 LionLion
18.01 14:00 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 1:2 StrasbourgStrasbourg
04.01 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 1:1 LorientLorient
0 Wins
2 Draws
3 Losses
0.8 Scored
1.8 Conceded
2 Points
Auxerre
D D L L L
08.02 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Auxerre 0:0 Paris FCParis FC
01.02 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Auxerre 0:0 ToulouseToulouse
23.01 19:00 UTC Ligue 1
Auxerre 0:1 Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
17.01 16:00 UTC Ligue 1
Auxerre 0:1 LensLens
04.01 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Auxerre 0:2 Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29
0 Wins
2 Draws
3 Losses
0.0 Scored
0.8 Conceded
2 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyMetz - Auxerre

Metz
1 matches total
Auxerre
Metz: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Auxerre: 1 (100%)
Biggest win Auxerre 1:3 (07.12 16:15 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 4 goals (1:3, 07.12 16:15 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 3
3 Goals conceded 1

Match history

07.12 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Metz
1:3
Auxerre