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Ligue 1
Ligue 1 France
29.10.2025 18:00 UTC Match prediction
29.10.2025 18:00 UTC
Finished

Ligue 1

France

Metz - Lens

France Football
Metz
Metz
2 : 0
Finished
Lens
Lens

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Metz - Lens October 29, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Lens.

Line favourite market consensus: Lens. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 6.57 / X 4.65 / 2 1.47
  • 1X2 market: Metz 14.7% / X 20.5% / Lens 64.8%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 59.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.8%
1 14.5%
X 20.5%
2 64.9%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.7%
Over 2.5 59.3%
Under 2.5 40.7%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 29.10.2025 18:00 UTC
Match center

Metz - Lens

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.47 market consensus · line only
X 4.66 market consensus · line only
1 6.59 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.12 market consensus · line only
12 1.19 market consensus · line only
1X 2.77 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.15 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.02 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 1.45 market consensus · line only
2 +1 1.72 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.61 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.35 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.03 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.74 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
6.95 14.4%
X 4.86 20.6%
1.46 68.5%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
6.40 15.6% 6.90 14.5% 7.24 13.8% 6.50 15.4% 6.25 16.0% 6.90 14.5%
X 4.70 21.3% 4.80 20.8% 4.84 20.7% 4.40 22.7% 5.00 20.0% 5.00 20.0%
1.44 69.4% 1.43 69.9% 1.49 67.1% 1.44 69.4% 1.44 69.4% 1.47 68.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 2.05 48.8% 2.09 47.9% 2.00 50.0% 2.05 48.8% 2.00 50.0% 2.00 50.0% 2.00 50.0% 1.98 50.5% 2.08 48.1%
yes 1.70 58.8% 1.72 58.1% 1.74 57.5% 1.70 58.8% 1.75 57.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.74 57.5% 1.81 55.3%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 1.10 90.9% 1.12 89.3% 1.13 88.5% 1.11 90.1% 1.13 88.5% 1.12 89.3%
home_away 1.14 87.7% 1.22 82.0% 1.20 83.3% 1.17 85.5% 1.18 84.8% 1.22 82.0%
home_draw 2.75 36.4% 2.82 35.5% 2.63 38.0% 2.75 36.4% 2.82 35.5% 2.85 35.1%
Match center
Metz
L L L D L
26.10 14:00 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 1:6 LilleLille
19.10 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 0:4 ToulouseToulouse
04.10 15:00 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 0:3 MarseilleMarseille
28.09 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 0:0 Le HavreLe Havre
21.09 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 2:5 MonacoMonaco
0 Wins
1 Draws
4 Losses
0.6 Scored
3.6 Conceded
1 Points
Lens
W W W D W
25.10 19:05 UTC Ligue 1
Lens 2:1 MarseilleMarseille
19.10 13:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lens 2:1 Paris FCParis FC
04.10 19:05 UTC Ligue 1
Lens 2:1 AuxerreAuxerre
28.09 18:45 UTC Ligue 1
Lens 0:0 RennesRennes
20.09 19:05 UTC Ligue 1
Lens 3:0 LilleLille
4 Wins
1 Draws
0 Losses
1.8 Scored
0.6 Conceded
13 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyMetz - Lens

Metz
0 matches total
Lens
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history