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Ligue 1
Ligue 1 France
25.01.2026 16:15 UTC Match prediction
25.01.2026 16:15 UTC
Finished

Ligue 1

France

Metz - Lyon

France Football
Metz
Metz
2 : 5
Finished
Lyon
Lyon

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Metz - Lyon January 25, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Lyon.

Line favourite market consensus: Lyon. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 5.07 / X 3.83 / 2 1.68
  • 1X2 market: Metz 18.8% / X 24.8% / Lyon 56.4%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 50.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.4%
1 18.7%
X 24.8%
2 56.5%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.7%
Over 2.5 50.3%
Under 2.5 49.7%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 25.01.2026 16:15 UTC
Match center

Metz - Lyon

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.69 market consensus · line only
X 3.84 market consensus · line only
1 5.10 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.17 market consensus · line only
12 1.26 market consensus · line only
1X 2.20 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.19 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.04 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 1.67 market consensus · line only
2 +1 2.20 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.90 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.92 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.91 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.84 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
5.42 18.5%
X 3.88 25.8%
1.69 59.2%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
4.75 21.1% 5.20 19.2% 5.48 18.3% 4.60 21.7% 4.75 21.1% 5.50 18.2%
X 3.70 27.0% 3.90 25.6% 3.98 25.1% 3.70 27.0% 3.80 26.3% 3.90 25.6%
1.69 59.2% 1.66 60.2% 1.72 58.1% 1.67 59.9% 1.70 58.8% 1.70 58.8%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 1.90 52.6% 1.85 54.1% 1.86 53.8% 1.91 52.4% 2.00 50.0% 1.88 53.2% 1.87 53.5% 1.84 54.4% 1.92 52.1%
yes 1.80 55.6% 1.92 52.1% 1.86 53.8% 1.83 54.6% 1.75 57.1% 1.85 54.1% 1.87 53.5% 1.86 53.8% 1.94 51.6%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 1.17 85.5% 1.18 84.8% 1.17 85.5% 1.18 84.8% 1.18 84.8% 1.18 84.8%
home_away 1.22 82.0% 1.29 77.5% 1.25 80.0% 1.25 80.0% 1.26 79.4% 1.29 77.5%
home_draw 2.10 47.6% 2.25 44.4% 2.15 46.5% 2.10 47.6% 2.22 45.1% 2.28 43.9%
Match center
Metz
L D L L L
18.01 14:00 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 1:2 StrasbourgStrasbourg
04.01 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 1:1 LorientLorient
13.12 18:00 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 2:3 Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
07.12 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 1:3 AuxerreAuxerre
28.11 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 0:1 RennesRennes
0 Wins
1 Draws
4 Losses
1.0 Scored
2.0 Conceded
1 Points
Lyon
W W W L W
18.01 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Lyon 2:1 Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29
03.01 16:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lyon 3:1 MonacoMonaco
14.12 14:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lyon 1:0 Le HavreLe Havre
07.12 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Lyon 0:1 LorientLorient
30.11 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Lyon 3:0 NantesNantes
4 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
1.8 Scored
0.6 Conceded
12 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyMetz - Lyon

Metz
1 matches total
Lyon
Metz: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Lyon: 1 (100%)
Biggest win Lion 0:3 (23.08 19:05 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 3 goals (0:3, 23.08 19:05 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 3
3 Goals conceded 0

Match history

23.08 19:05 UTC Ligue 1
Metz
0:3
Lion