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Ligue 1
Ligue 1 France
16.01.2026 18:00 UTC Match prediction
16.01.2026 18:00 UTC
Finished

Ligue 1

France

Monaco - Lorient

France Football
Monaco
Monaco
1 : 3
Finished
Lorient
Lorient

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Monaco - Lorient January 16, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Monaco.

Line favourite market consensus: Monaco. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.66 / X 4.16 / 2 4.82
  • 1X2 market: Monaco 57.4% / X 22.9% / Lorient 19.7%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 60.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.0%
1 57.4%
X 22.9%
2 19.8%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.0%
Over 2.5 60.9%
Under 2.5 39.1%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 16.01.2026 18:00 UTC
Match center

Monaco - Lorient

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 4.83 market consensus · line only
X 4.17 market consensus · line only
1 1.66 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 2.25 market consensus · line only
12 1.23 market consensus · line only
1X 1.19 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.25 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.77 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 4.48 market consensus · line only
2 +1 9.00 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.55 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.41 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.30 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.57 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
1.68 59.5%
X 4.28 23.4%
4.91 20.4%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
1.64 61.0% 1.64 61.0% 1.71 58.5% 1.62 61.7% 1.65 60.6% 1.70 58.8%
X 4.10 24.4% 4.20 23.8% 4.32 23.2% 3.90 25.6% 4.20 23.8% 4.35 23.0%
4.90 20.4% 4.90 20.4% 5.03 19.9% 4.80 20.8% 4.75 21.1% 4.85 20.6%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 2.35 42.6% 2.34 42.7% 2.28 43.9% 2.30 43.5% 2.25 44.4% 2.27 44.1% 2.30 43.5% 2.25 44.4% 2.39 41.8%
yes 1.53 65.4% 1.58 63.3% 1.57 63.7% 1.53 65.4% 1.57 63.7% 1.60 62.5% 1.57 63.7% 1.57 63.7% 1.62 61.7%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 2.20 45.5% 2.27 44.1% 2.25 44.4% 2.20 45.5% 2.25 44.4% 2.27 44.1%
home_away 1.18 84.8% 1.26 79.4% 1.22 82.0% 1.22 82.0% 1.22 82.0% 1.25 80.0%
home_draw 1.17 85.5% 1.21 82.6% 1.18 84.8% 1.18 84.8% 1.22 82.0% 1.20 83.3%
Match center
Monaco
L L L W L
03.01 16:00 UTC Ligue 1
Monaco 1:3 LionLion
14.12 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Monaco 0:1 MarseilleMarseille
05.12 18:00 UTC Ligue 1
Monaco 0:1 Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29
29.11 16:00 UTC Ligue 1
Monaco 1:0 Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
22.11 18:00 UTC Ligue 1
Monaco 1:4 RennesRennes
1 Wins
0 Draws
4 Losses
0.6 Scored
1.8 Conceded
3 Points
Lorient
D D W W D
04.01 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Lorient 1:1 MetzMetz
14.12 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Lorient 0:0 StrasbourgStrasbourg
07.12 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Lorient 1:0 LionLion
30.11 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Lorient 3:1 NiceNice
23.11 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Lorient 1:1 NantesNantes
2 Wins
3 Draws
0 Losses
1.2 Scored
0.6 Conceded
9 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyMonaco - Lorient

Monaco
1 matches total
Lorient
Monaco: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Lorient: 1 (100%)
Biggest win Lorient 1:3 (27.09 15:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 4 goals (1:3, 27.09 15:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 3
3 Goals conceded 1

Match history

27.09 15:00 UTC Ligue 1
Monaco
1:3
Lorient