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Ligue 1
Ligue 1 France
03.01.2026 16:00 UTC Match prediction
03.01.2026 16:00 UTC
Finished

Ligue 1

France

Monaco - Lyon

France Football
Monaco
Monaco
1 : 3
Finished
Lyon
Lyon

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Monaco - Lyon January 3, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Monaco.

Line favourite market consensus: Monaco. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.10 / X 3.67 / 2 3.29
  • 1X2 market: Monaco 45.3% / X 25.9% / Lyon 28.9%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 58.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.3%
1 45.2%
X 25.9%
2 28.9%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.8%
Over 2.5 58.2%
Under 2.5 41.8%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 03.01.2026 16:00 UTC
Match center

Monaco - Lyon

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.29 market consensus · line only
X 3.68 market consensus · line only
1 2.10 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.74 market consensus · line only
12 1.28 market consensus · line only
1X 1.34 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.77 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.38 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 3.27 market consensus · line only
2 +1 5.65 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.64 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.28 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.42 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.53 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
2.14 46.7%
X 3.76 26.6%
3.39 29.5%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
2.08 48.1% 2.07 48.3% 2.19 45.7% 2.00 50.0% 2.10 47.6% 2.12 47.2%
X 3.65 27.4% 3.85 26.0% 3.82 26.2% 3.50 28.6% 3.60 27.8% 3.65 27.4%
3.30 30.3% 3.25 30.8% 3.38 29.6% 3.25 30.8% 3.30 30.3% 3.30 30.3%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 2.38 42.0% 2.42 41.3% 2.37 42.2% 2.40 41.7% 2.50 40.0% 2.37 42.2% 2.50 40.0% 2.34 42.7% 2.51 39.8%
yes 1.53 65.4% 1.54 64.9% 1.53 65.4% 1.53 65.4% 1.50 66.7% 1.55 64.5% 1.50 66.7% 1.53 65.4% 1.57 63.7%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 1.73 57.8% 1.76 56.8% 1.70 58.8% 1.70 58.8% 1.75 57.1% 1.75 57.1%
home_away 1.22 82.0% 1.31 76.3% 1.29 77.5% 1.28 78.1% 1.28 78.1% 1.30 76.9%
home_draw 1.33 75.2% 1.37 73.0% 1.33 75.2% 1.33 75.2% 1.36 73.5% 1.36 73.5%
Match center
Monaco
L L W L L
14.12 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Monaco 0:1 MarseilleMarseille
05.12 18:00 UTC Ligue 1
Monaco 0:1 Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29
29.11 16:00 UTC Ligue 1
Monaco 1:0 Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
22.11 18:00 UTC Ligue 1
Monaco 1:4 RennesRennes
08.11 20:05 UTC Ligue 1
Monaco 1:4 LensLens
1 Wins
0 Draws
4 Losses
0.6 Scored
2.0 Conceded
3 Points
Lyon
W L W D L
14.12 14:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lyon 1:0 Le HavreLe Havre
07.12 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Lyon 0:1 LorientLorient
30.11 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Lyon 3:0 NantesNantes
23.11 14:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lyon 0:0 AuxerreAuxerre
09.11 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Lyon 2:3 Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
2 Wins
1 Draws
2 Losses
1.2 Scored
0.8 Conceded
7 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyMonaco - Lyon

Monaco
1 matches total
Lyon
Monaco: 1 (100%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Lyon: 0 (0%)
Biggest win Monaco 2:0 (10.05 19:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 2 goals (2:0, 10.05 19:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

2 Goals scored 0
0 Goals conceded 2

Match history

10.05 19:00 UTC Ligue 1
Monaco
2:0
Lion