Who is the favourite in Monaco vs Marseille?

By the PropickAI model, Monaco is favoured — about 43% win probability.

What does PropickAI predict for Monaco vs Marseille?

The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Monaco. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.

What are the bookmaker odds for Monaco vs Marseille?

Live odds for Monaco vs Marseille from multiple bookmakers are listed on this page and refresh as the market moves.

AI verdict

AI pick Monaco win probability ~43% best odds 1.01

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Monaco. Full breakdown below.

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Ligue 1 France

30.08.2026 18:45 UTC Match prediction

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction

30.08.2026 18:45 UTC

Finished

Ligue 1

Monaco vs Marseille — Football prediction

France Football

Stadium Lui II

Referee W. Delajod

Monaco

2 : 0

Finished

Marseille

Monaco host Marseille in football, in Ligue 1, on 30 August 2026. PropickAI's Glicko-2 model makes Monaco the favourite, with a win probability of about 43%. The bookmaker consensus (4 books) implies about 43% for the same outcome. The model puts the chance of a draw at 26%.

Latest form: Monaco 2 won, 1 drawn and 2 lost; Marseille 3 won, 1 drawn and 1 lost. Marseille come in having won their last matches. Glicko ratings: Monaco 1604, Marseille 1598, a gap of 5 points. Across 3 recent head-to-head meetings between them, the full record is shown below on this page.

Our model and the market consensus broadly agree on this match. Model confidence in the favourite is low. The match is close, and the model flags no clear safer edge. Key markers: an edge of 5 Glicko rating points, the model's 43% for Monaco. Read on for team stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PropickAI AI prediction. This is a probability read from our model plus the market line, not a guaranteed outcome.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Monaco — 43%

1 · Monaco42.9%

X · draw26.2%

2 · Marseille30.9%

Model estimate: win Monaco 42.9%, draw 26.2%, win Marseille 30.9%. Model favourite — Monaco.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

🎯 Safe pick strong

Double chance — Monaco or draw 1.07

Model confidence 75% ~82% on our history

How often this pick wins on our settled history — not a profit forecast.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

Xdraw (odds3.35) Score 1:1 Under 3 (odds1.90) ✓ confidence 50% ✗ outcome missed

• liniya na pik X 3.80→3.70 (ukorotilas — dengi na pik)
• Model backs nichyu: probability 50% vs 30% on the line (odds 3.35)
• edge over the line +20 pp — value pick
• Expected score 1
• Total: Under 3: model expects a total of ~2 goals
• at line 3 (odds 1.90).

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Monaco - Marseille August 30, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Monaco.

Line favourite Fonbet: Monaco. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.01 / X 12.00 / 2 3.19
Glicko: Monaco 42.9% / X 26.2% / Marseille 30.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 7.6% 3 books · best price +6.5%

1 42.8%

X 26.2%

2 31.0%

Odds source: consensus of 3 books (Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Model O/U (market-implied)

Total 3.0 2 books

Over 3.0 50.5%

Under 3.0 49.5%

Market-implied probability from the frozen pre-kickoff consensus line — reference, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 1 2.50 ↓ 2.20

1X2 X 3.80 ↓ 3.50

1X2 2 2.60 ↑ 3.25

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Ligue 1

League table

Monaco

#16 ptsGP 22-0-03:0

Marseille

#73 ptsGP 21-0-14:2

Best price across 13 books

1 2.28 1xBet

X 3.72 1xBet

2 3.25 1xBet

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)

Monaco

W-D-L 5-2-3 Scored 1.78 Conceded 1.65 xG 1.90 xGA 1.27 Corners 5.7

Marseille

W-D-L 5-1-4 Scored 1.58 Conceded 1.16 xG 2.00 xGA 1.21 Corners 5.8

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Injuries and absences

L. Balerdi — Calf Injury T. Minamino — Knee Injury I. Paixao — Muscle Injury M. Salisu — Knee Injury F. Moumbagna — Injury Ansu Fati — Calf Injury F. Balogun — Injury M. Abline — Foot Injury

Source: sstats_content

Model form (Glicko)

Monaco

Rating 1604 xG 1.45 Win 41%

Marseille

Rating 1648 xG 1.26 Win 33%

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result

Monaco

43%

2.31

Draw

27%

12.00

Marseille

31%

54.00

Handicap

Monaco (1.5)

50%

1.38

Marseille (1.5)

50%

1.43

Total

Over 4.5

49%

10.00

Under 4.5

51%

2.25

Both teams to score

Yes

52%

3.95

48%

2.50

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Monaco 2 : 2 Marseille

12.30

X3.64

23.27

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Participant opinions

962 predictions Choose an outcome

1 43% 420

X 41% 401

2 14% 141

Match center

Stadium Lui II

Referee W. Delajod

Start 30.08.2026 18:45 UTC

Market 1 71.4% @ 1.01 / X 6.0% @ 12.00 / 2 22.6% @ 3.19

Weather +25°C solnechno

Broadcasts Setanta Sports 2, Setanta Sports 2, Setanta Sports 2

🥊 Humans vs Machines

👥 Community Monaco 43%

📐 Math model Monaco 43%

💹 Market Monaco 43%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

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Match center

Monaco - Marseille

Monaco: win 2.40 Monaco: draw 3.60 Marseille win: 2.75 Obschiy Total goals Over 2.5: 1.62 Obschiy Total goals Under 2.5: 2.30 Individualnyy Total goals Monaco Over 1.5: 1.91 Individualnyy Total goals Monaco Under 1.5: 1.80 Individualnyy Total goals Marseille Over 1…

Lineups 11/11 probable starting lineup

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 3 head-to-head matches

Market 3 model / bookmakers

Post-match / SStats

Score 2:0

Events 0

Statistics 0

Lineups 0

PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating

Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 42.9% fact: home hit / ROI 131.0% / Brier 0.490 / LogLoss 0.847

Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 42.9% fact: home hit / ROI 131.0% / Brier 0.490 / LogLoss 0.847

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Monaco 42.8% 42.9% market and model agree

Draw 26.5% 26.2% draw risk

Marseille 30.8% 30.9%

xG - 1.30 : 1.38

1X2: 4 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 42.9% / 26.2% / 30.9% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,604 / 1,598 Monaco / Marseille

RD 101 / 102 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 1,401-1,807 / 1,393-1,803 strength interval

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 3.06 market consensus · no value · model 30.9%

X 3.58 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 1.01 Fonbet · no value · model 42.9%

Double chance

12 1.02 Fonbet · no value · model 73.8%

1X 1.07 Fonbet · no value · model 69.1%

X2 1.65 market consensus · no value · model 57.1%

Handicap

2 -1 1.95 Fonbet · line only

2 +1 5.80 Fonbet · line only

2 0 6.40 Fonbet · line only

2 0.5 1.64 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 4.90 Fonbet · line only

Under 2.5 1.16 Fonbet · line only

Both teams to score

No 1.20 Fonbet · line only

Yes 3.95 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome	Fonbet	Kambi BetMGM	Kambi Unibet	Leon
no	1.20 83.3%	2.50 40.0%	2.50 40.0%	2.44 41.0%
yes	3.95 25.3%	3.45 29.0%	3.45 29.0%	1.49 67.1%

Double chance

Outcome	Fonbet	Kambi BetMGM	Kambi Unibet
12	1.02 98.0%	1.28 78.1%	1.28 78.1%
1x	1.07 93.5%	1.36 73.5%	1.36 73.5%
x2	12.50 8.0%	1.65 60.6%	1.65 60.6%

First Half Winner

Outcome	Leon
	2.72 36.8%
X	2.31 43.3%
	3.57 28.0%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome	Leon
Over 1	1.54 64.9%
Over 1.5	2.31 43.3%
Under 1	2.32 43.1%
Under 1.5	1.54 64.9%

Match center

4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1

1 Lukash Gradetski

2 Vanderson

3 Erik Dayer

20 Flavio Nazinyu

72 Sadibu Sane

6 Denis Zakaria

10 Aleksandr Golovin

15 Lamin Kamara

17 Stanis Idumbo Muzambo

28 Mamadu Kulibali

29 Paris Brunner

12 Dzheffri de Lange

4 Konrad Igan-Rayli

21 Naif Agerd

22 Timoti Vea

33 Emerson

7 Ankhel Gomes

19 Zhoffrey Kondogbya 23 Per-Emil Kheyberg

27 Kvinten Timber

77 Amin Arit

9 Amin Guiri

Monaco

Formation 4-2-3-1

Probable starting lineup

1 LG Lukash Gradetski

Lukash Gradetski

2 V Vanderson

Vanderson

3 ED Erik Dayer

Erik Dayer

20 FN Flavio Nazinyu

Flavio Nazinyu

72 SS Sadibu Sane

Sadibu Sane

6 DZ Denis Zakaria

Denis Zakaria

10 AG Aleksandr Golovin

Aleksandr Golovin

15 LK Lamin Kamara

Lamin Kamara

17 SI Stanis Idumbo Muzambo

Stanis Idumbo Muzambo

28 MK Mamadu Kulibali

Mamadu Kulibali

29 PB Paris Brunner

Paris Brunner

Head coach Filipe Luis

Marseille

Formation 4-2-3-1

Probable starting lineup

12 DD Dzheffri de Lange

Dzheffri de Lange

4 KI Konrad Igan-Rayli

Konrad Igan-Rayli

21 NA Naif Agerd

Naif Agerd

22 TV Timoti Vea

Timoti Vea

33 E Emerson

Emerson

7 AG Ankhel Gomes

Ankhel Gomes

19 ZK Zhoffrey Kondogbya

Zhoffrey Kondogbya

23 PK Per-Emil Kheyberg

Per-Emil Kheyberg

27 KT Kvinten Timber

Kvinten Timber

77 AA Amin Arit

Amin Arit

9 AG Amin Guiri

Amin Guiri

Head coach Bruno Zhenezio

Monaco

No home-team absences found in the prematch data.

Marseille

No away-team absences found in the prematch data.

Formations 4-2-3-1 / 4-2-3-1

SStats Market - Glicko - Form - H2H

Match center

10 Matches 10

23 Goals 18

2.3 Per match 1.8

6 Wins 6

1 Draws 1

3 Losses 3

Form & head-to-head

H2H 4-2-3, avg 3.11 gls

2026-08-30 · Monako 2:0 Marsel

2026-04-05 · Monako 2:1 Marsel

2025-12-14 · Monako 0:1 Marsel

2025-04-12 · Monako 3:0 Marsel

2024-12-01 · Monako 1:2 Marsel

Source: ruscore

Odds · 5 bookmakers

Best price: 1 2.6 (Liga Stavok) · X 3.8 (Pari) · 2 2.65 (Winline)

Bookmaker	1	X	2
Pari	2.5	3.8	2.6
Winline	2.45	3.8	2.65
Fonbet	2.5	3.8	2.6
Betcity	2.55	3.8	2.55
Liga Stavok	2.6	3.75	2.47

Source: ruscore · line comparison

Match stats

36% Ball possession 64%

9 Vsego udarov 10

5 Shots on target 2

2 Shots off target 4

8 Udary ot vorot 4

2 Blokirovannye udary 4

9 Shtrafnye 9

5 Corners 7

3 Offsides 1

7 Auty 18

2 Saves 3

9 Fouls 10

4 Cards total 0

4 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

0 Second yellows 0

0 Travmy 3

4 Substitutions 5

Source: ruscore

Monaco

W W W L W

2026-08-27 UEFA Conference League 26/27, Playoff Round

Monaco Monaco 4:1 Gornik Zabrze

2026-08-23 Ligue 1 26/27

Monaco Le Havre 0:1 Monaco

2026-08-20 UEFA Conference League 26/27, Playoff Round

Monaco Gornik Zabrze 2:3 Monaco

2026-08-14 Club Friendly Games 2026

Monaco Coventry City 2:0 Monaco

2026-08-09 Club Friendly Games 2026

Monaco Liverpool 2:3 Monaco

4 Wins

0 Draws

1 Losses

2.2 Scored

1.4 Conceded

12 Points

Marseille

W L W W W

2026-08-21 Ligue 1 26/27

Marseille 4:0 Strasbourg Marseille

2026-08-14 Club Friendly Games 2026

Marseille 1:2 Atletico Madrid Marseille

2026-08-09 Club Friendly Games 2026

Marseille 3:1 Athletic Bilbao Marseille

2026-08-05 Club Friendly Games 2026

Al Shahaniya 0:3 Marseille Marseille

2026-07-30 Club Friendly Games 2026

Marseille 2:1 Nimes Marseille

4 Wins

0 Draws

1 Losses

2.6 Scored

0.8 Conceded

12 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head history: Monaco - Marseille

Monaco

3 matches total

Marseille

Monaco: 2 (66.7%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Marseille: 1 (33.3%)

Biggest win Monaco 3:0 (2025-04-12) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 3 goals (2:1, 2026-04-05) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

5 Goals scored 2

2 Goals conceded 5

Match history

2026-04-05 Ligue 1 26/27

Monaco 2:1 Marseille

2025-12-14 Ligue 1 26/27

Marseille 1:0 Monaco

2025-04-12 Ligue 1 26/27

Monaco 3:0 Marseille

Match center

Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.

Team 1 Monaco

Data 0 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket

Team 2 Marseille

Matches in history 128

Biggest draw 3:3

Highest-scoring match 3:4

Liga 1 / 109 / 39 / 26 / 44 / 153

151 Cup ligi 5 / 3 / 0 / 2 / 6 / 6

Cup France 10 / 5 / 1 / 4 / 19 / 22

Europa League UEFA 2 / 0 / 1 / 1 / 2 / 3

Cup Sharlya Drago 2 / 1 / 0 / 1 / 3 / 2

Monaco vs Marseille — Football prediction

AI match prediction Monaco - Marseille August 30, 2026

Fair probability (no margin)

Model O/U (market-implied)

Line movement

Statistics and model

Forecast by market

Score prediction

Unlock the full AI analysis

Monaco - Marseille

Match markets

Both teams to score

Double chance

First Half Winner

Goals Over/Under First Half

Form & head-to-head

Odds · 5 bookmakers

Match stats

Overall statistics

Match history

More predictions

Frequently asked questions