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Ligue 1
Ligue 1 France
05.10.2025 15:15 UTC Match prediction
05.10.2025 15:15 UTC
Finished

Ligue 1

France

Monaco - Nice

France Football
Monaco
Monaco
2 : 2
Finished
Nice
Nice

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Monaco - Nice October 5, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Monaco.

Line favourite market consensus: Monaco. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.85 / X 3.87 / 2 3.96
  • 1X2 market: Monaco 51.3% / X 24.6% / Nice 24.1%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 61.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.1%
1 51.4%
X 24.6%
2 24.0%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.4%
Over 2.5 61.0%
Under 2.5 39.0%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 05.10.2025 15:15 UTC
Match center

Monaco - Nice

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.96 market consensus · line only
X 3.88 market consensus · line only
1 1.86 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.97 market consensus · line only
12 1.26 market consensus · line only
1X 1.25 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.00 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.57 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 3.83 market consensus · line only
2 +1 7.33 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.54 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.41 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.46 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.51 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
1.89 52.9%
X 3.96 25.3%
4.03 24.8%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
1.86 53.8% 1.81 55.3% 1.89 52.9% 1.83 54.6% 1.85 54.1% 1.83 54.6%
X 3.85 26.0% 4.10 24.4% 4.01 24.9% 3.75 26.7% 3.75 26.7% 3.85 26.0%
3.80 26.3% 3.95 25.3% 4.23 23.6% 3.90 25.6% 4.00 25.0% 4.10 24.4%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 2.45 40.8% 2.50 40.0% 2.45 40.8% 2.40 41.7% 2.50 40.0% 2.40 41.7% 2.50 40.0% 2.41 41.5% 2.61 38.3%
yes 1.48 67.6% 1.51 66.2% 1.50 66.7% 1.53 65.4% 1.50 66.7% 1.53 65.4% 1.50 66.7% 1.50 66.7% 1.54 64.9%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 1.91 52.4% 2.02 49.5% 1.95 51.3% 1.91 52.4% 2.02 49.5% 2.02 49.5%
home_away 1.20 83.3% 1.29 77.5% 1.25 80.0% 1.25 80.0% 1.25 80.0% 1.28 78.1%
home_draw 1.25 80.0% 1.27 78.7% 1.25 80.0% 1.22 82.0% 1.26 79.4% 1.26 79.4%
Match center
Monaco
L W W W L
27.09 15:00 UTC Ligue 1
Monaco 1:3 LorientLorient
21.09 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Monaco 5:2 MetzMetz
13.09 19:05 UTC Ligue 1
Monaco 2:1 AuxerreAuxerre
31.08 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Monaco 3:2 StrasbourgStrasbourg
24.08 18:45 UTC Ligue 1
Monaco 0:1 LilleLille
3 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
2.2 Scored
1.8 Conceded
9 Points
Nice
D L W L W
28.09 13:00 UTC Ligue 1
Nice 1:1 Paris FCParis FC
20.09 17:00 UTC Ligue 1
Nice 1:4 Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29
13.09 15:00 UTC Ligue 1
Nice 1:0 NantesNantes
31.08 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Nice 1:3 Le HavreLe Havre
23.08 17:00 UTC Ligue 1
Nice 3:1 AuxerreAuxerre
2 Wins
1 Draws
2 Losses
1.4 Scored
1.8 Conceded
7 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyMonaco - Nice

Monaco
1 matches total
Nice
Monaco: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Nice: 1 (100%)
Biggest win Nice 1:2 (27.10 15:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 3 goals (1:2, 27.10 15:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 2
2 Goals conceded 1

Match history

27.10 15:00 UTC Ligue 1
Monaco
1:2
Nice