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Ligue 1
Ligue 1 France
23.11.2025 16:15 UTC Match prediction
23.11.2025 16:15 UTC
Finished

Ligue 1

France

Nantes - Lorient

France Football
Nantes
Nantes
1 : 1
Finished
Lorient
Lorient

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Nantes - Lorient November 23, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Lorient.

Line favourite market consensus: Lorient. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.97 / X 3.31 / 2 2.42
  • 1X2 market: Nantes 32.0% / X 28.7% / Lorient 39.3%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 52.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.2%
1 32.0%
X 28.7%
2 39.3%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.4%
Over 2.5 47.7%
Under 2.5 52.3%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 23.11.2025 16:15 UTC
Match center

Nantes - Lorient

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.42 market consensus · line only
X 3.32 market consensus · line only
1 2.98 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.40 market consensus · line only
12 1.33 market consensus · line only
1X 1.57 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.44 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.15 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.37 market consensus · line only
2 +1 3.83 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.01 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.83 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.01 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.75 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
3.09 32.4%
X 3.39 29.5%
2.44 41.0%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
3.00 33.3% 3.05 32.8% 3.02 33.1% 2.90 34.5% 3.00 33.3% 3.00 33.3%
X 3.30 30.3% 3.40 29.4% 3.45 29.0% 3.20 31.3% 3.30 30.3% 3.35 29.9%
2.36 42.4% 2.36 42.4% 2.53 39.5% 2.40 41.7% 2.38 42.0% 2.40 41.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 2.00 50.0% 2.04 49.0% 2.00 50.0% 2.00 50.0% 2.00 50.0% 2.00 50.0% 2.00 50.0% 1.98 50.5% 2.14 46.7%
yes 1.73 57.8% 1.75 57.1% 1.74 57.5% 1.75 57.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.74 57.5% 1.76 56.8%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 1.38 72.5% 1.44 69.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.36 73.5% 1.42 70.4% 1.43 69.9%
home_away 1.28 78.1% 1.36 73.5% 1.33 75.2% 1.33 75.2% 1.31 76.3% 1.36 73.5%
home_draw 1.57 63.7% 1.59 62.9% 1.53 65.4% 1.53 65.4% 1.60 62.5% 1.61 62.1%
Match center
Nantes
D L L W L
08.11 18:00 UTC Ligue 1
Nantes 1:1 Le HavreLe Havre
02.11 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Nantes 0:2 MetzMetz
29.10 20:05 UTC Ligue 1
Nantes 3:5 MonacoMonaco
24.10 18:45 UTC Ligue 1
Nantes 2:1 Paris FCParis FC
19.10 18:45 UTC Ligue 1
Nantes 0:2 LilleLille
1 Wins
1 Draws
3 Losses
1.2 Scored
2.2 Conceded
4 Points
Lorient
D L D L D
09.11 14:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lorient 1:1 ToulouseToulouse
02.11 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Lorient 0:3 LensLens
29.10 18:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lorient 1:1 Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
26.10 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Lorient 0:2 AngersAngers
19.10 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Lorient 3:3 Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29
0 Wins
3 Draws
2 Losses
1.0 Scored
2.0 Conceded
3 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyNantes - Lorient

Nantes
0 matches total
Lorient
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history